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Lehtonen, H. S., & Irz, X. (2013). Impacts of reducing red meat consumption on agricultural production in Finland. Agriculture and Food Science, 22(3), 356–370.
Abstract: This paper summarises the simulated effects on Finnish agrcultural production and trade of a 20% decrease in Finnish demand for red meat (beef, pork, lamb). According to our results, reduced red meat consumption would be offset by increased consumption of poultry meat, eggs, dairy products and fish, as well as small increases in consumption of fruits and vegetables, peas, nuts, cereal products and sweets. By including the derived demand changes in an agricultural sector model, we show that livestock production in Finland, incentivised by national production-linked payments for milk and bovine animals, would decrease by much less than 20% due to the complex nature of agricultural production and trade. Overall, assuming unchanged consumer preferences and agricultural policy, a 20% reduction in red meat consumption is not likely to lead to a substantial decrease in livestock production or changed land use, or greenhouse gas emissions, from Finnish agriculture.
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Below, T. B., Mutabazi, K. D., Kirschke, D., Franke, C., Sieber, S., Siebert, R., et al. (2012). Can farmers’ adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic household-level variables. Glob. Environ. Change, 22(1), 223–235.
Abstract: A better understanding of processes that shape farmers’ adaptation to climate change is critical to identify vulnerable entities and to develop well-targeted adaptation policies. However, it is currently poorly understood what determines farmers’ adaptation and how to measure it. In this study, we develop an activity-based adaptation index (AAI) and explore the relationship between socioeconomic variables and farmers’ adaptation behavior by means of an explanatory factor analysis and a multiple linear regression model using latent variables. The model was tested in six villages situated in two administrative wards in the Morogoro region of Tanzania. The Mlali ward represents a system of relatively high agricultural potential, whereas the Gairo ward represents a system of low agricultural potential. A household survey, a rapid rural appraisal and, a stakeholder workshop were used for data collection. The data were analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. We found that public investment in rural infrastructure, in the availability and technically efficient use of inputs, in a good education system that provides equal chances for women, and in the strengthening of social capital, agricultural extension and, microcredit services are the best means of improving the adaptation of the farmers from the six villages in Gairo and Mlali. We conclude that the newly developed AAI is a simple but promising way to capture the complexity of adaptation processes that addresses a number of shortcomings of previous index studies.
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change. Agricultural and Food Science, 24(3), 219–234.
Abstract: Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production.
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Zimmermann, A., & Britz, W. (2016). European farms’ participation in agri-environmental measures. Land Use Policy, 50, 214–228.
Abstract: Due to their diversity and voluntariness, agri-environmental measures (AEMs) are among the Common Agricultural Policy instruments that are most difficult to assess. We provide an EU-wide analysis of AEM adoption and farm’s total AEM support over total Utilised Agricultural Area using a Heckman sample selection approach and single farm data. Our analysis covers 22 Member States over the 2000-2009 period, assesses the entire portfolio of AEMs and focuses on the relationship between AEM participation and farming system. Results show that participation in AEMs is more likely in less intensive production systems, where, however, per committed hectare AEM premiums tend to be lower. Member States group into three categories: high/low intensity farming systems with low/high AEM enrollment rates, respectively, and large high diversity countries with medium AEM enrollment rates. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Mitter, H., Schmid, E., & Sinabell, F. (2015). Integrated modelling of protein crop production responses to climate change and agricultural policy scenarios in Austria. Clim. Res., 65, 205–220.
Abstract: Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%.
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