Biewald, A., Sinabell, F., Lotze-Campen, H., Zimmermann, A., & Lehtonen, H. (2017). Global Representative Agricultural Pathways for Europe (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both frameworks are combined.
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Frank, S., Witzke, P., Zimmermann, A., Havlik, P., & Ciaian, P. (2014). Climate Change Impacts on European Agriculture: A Multi Model Perspective..
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Köchy, M., Bishop, J., Lehtonen, H., Scollan, N., Webber, H., Zimmermann, A., et al. (2017). Challenges and research gaps in the area of integrated climate change risk assessment for European agriculture and food security (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Priorities in addressing research gaps and challenges should follow the order of importance, which in itself would be a matter of defining goals and metrics of importance, e.g. the extent, impact and likelihood of occurrence. For improving assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture for achieving food security and other sustainable development goals across the European continent, the most important research gaps and challenges appear to be the agreement on goals with a wide range of stakeholders from policy, science, producers and society, better reflection of political and societal preferences in the modelling process, and the reflection of economic decisions in farm management within models. These and other challenges could be approached in phase 3 of MACSUR.
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Köchy, M., & Zimmermann, A. (2013). Workshop on Regional Pilot Studies, 5-7 June 2013, Braunschweig (Vol. 2).
Abstract: The workshop was called to define an overarching question to be answered by all Regional Pilot Studies and to select from the existing studies those that fit best to the aims of MACSUR. The question that evolved from the discussions is “What would be the different contributions of different European adaptation strategies to ensure global food security until 2050 at different scales (farm to EU) while keeping the GHG targets?” Workshop participants agreed to use the newest climate simulations related to Representative Concentration Pathways that were also used by the AgMIP and ISI-MIP projects. There was also agreement to use a subset of the AgMIP scenarios (S2-S6) for impact assessments, with AgMIP scenario S1 as the reference scenario, for details see Table 3 below. The selection of Regional Pilot Studies was discussed separately for European Grand Regions, but there was no concluding decision taken. The Project Steering Committee will finally decide on showcase studies at a meeting in the first week of July based on characterisations sent in by interested members. Questionnaires for characterising the Regional Pilot Studies will be sent by the Hub to the regional contact persons mentioned in Table 2 to fill in. The characterization list can be extended. The questionnaires should be filled in by the end of June. Stakeholder meetings are planned for October 2013 in each region where preliminary/sample outputs of the regional pilot studies should be presented. Results will be presented at the mid-term meeting in April 2014. The last year of MACSUR is then available to improve the studies.The geographic extent of the Regional Pilot Studies is approximately county level – representing the area of the studies they are based on. The Regional Pilot Studies will be linked within the grand regions (northern, central, southern Europe) by consistent regional and continental Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAP). These regional RAPs will feed into the RAP process underway at AgMIP. Through the common RAPs the Regional Pilot Studies will reflect the common challenges of the greater region and by having several Regional Pilot Studies the diversity of the environment, farming systems, and political systems is represented. The workshop was a first step into further planning and performing the Regional Pilot Studies that will fine-tune the results of the workshop. No Label
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Stocco, L., Adenäuer, M., & Zimmermann, A. (2013). Global land use response in agricultural sector models: estimating supply and area response in Argentina..
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