Abstract: Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.

Abstract: The report presented here provides an inventory of reports and conference papers  produced by the partners of the livestock and grassland modelling theme (LiveM) of the  Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR)  knowledge hub. The findings presented illustrate the diverse nature of the multidisciplinary  LiveM research community, and provide a reference source for those seeking  to identify and pull out farm-level modelling outputs from the work of MACSUR and its  partners. The survey of farm-scale outputs from LiveM revealed the interdependent, dual  role of a knowledge hub: to increase the capacity of modelling to meet stakeholder and  societal needs under climate change, and to apply that increased capacity to provide new  understanding and solutions at the policy and (the focus here) farm scale. While capacity  building work across disciplines is time-consuming, difficult, and to a large extent invisible  to stakeholders, such work is vital to ensuring that subsequent scientific outcomes reflect  best practice, and integrated expertise. Long term, sustained funding of network-based  capacity building activities is highlighted as essential to ensuring that the farm-scale  modelling work highlighted here can continue to build on ongoing improvements in model  quality, flexibility and stakeholder relevance.

Abstract: Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.