Mitter, H., Techen, A. - K., Sinabell, F., Helming, K., Kok, K., Priess, J. A., et al. (2019). A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture. J. Environ. Manage., 252, Unsp 109701.
Abstract: Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs- to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports intercomparisons of IAAS.
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Sinabell, F. (2014). Adaptation in Austrian cattle and milk production. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Climate change will pose considerable challenges to Austrian agriculture which will likely be affected by a higher frequency of extreme weather events and more volatile commodity prices. We want to analyse the spatial, economic and social dimension of this threat by exploring expected consequences for the most important agricultural activity in Austria, cattle and dairy farming. We will evaluate a broad bouquet of adaptation measures from both, the perspective of the single farm as well as from the agricultural policy perspective. By aligning scenarios on projections of climate conditions and socio-economic developments with those developed in the EU MACSUR project (www.macsur.eu), the results will be consistent with state of the art analyses on climate change in Europe. By integrating results from a well established life cycle analysis model that will be specified to the Austrian situation we will broaden the spectrum of existing knowledge substantially. The results will allow policy makers to base their decisions on evidence that is not limited to the Austrian situations but includes spillover effects to foreign countries as well. Farmers willbe able to benefit directly from results of this project because stakeholders from the farm sector are part of the analyses from the beginning. An additional benefit of the project is that it is closely integrated to the activities of the international network of researchers working on climate change and food security in Europe.
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Sinabell, F. (2016). Adaptation to climate change in the European agriculture: A new tool for explicit cost accounting (Vol. 9 C6 -).
Abstract: farm structure in Austria and level of educationchallenges of more volatile markets / more uncertain yieldsmore uncertainty about revenues and costsspecialisation and liquidity problems – not alleviated by EU direct paymentspolitical measures: late, uncertain, no legal title, wrong incentivestax credits – not relevant in Austria for most farmsprice hedging instruments steep learning curve and intransparent marketsmost frequently used: service of buying co-operatives control of accumulation risksdetails of contract are attractive for farmerse.g. monthly benefits for milk producersbenefits at the time of sale for pig, piglet, grain producerscombination with production risk insurance with discountsgovernment support during introduction period / as a new policy instrumentmarketing and sales: wholesale buyers / dairies / producer organisations offer margin insurance as a service
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Nendel, C., Ewert, F., Rötter, R. P., Rosenzweig, C., Jones, J. W., Hatfield, J. L., et al. (2013). Addressing challenges and uncertainties for, the use of agro-ecosystem models to, assess climate change impact and food security across scales..
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Mitter, H., Schönhart, M., Meyer, I., Mechtler, K., Schmid, E., Sinabell, F., et al. (2015). Agriculture. In K. Steiniger, & M. König (Eds.),. Cost of Inaction in Austria. Vienna: Springer.
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