Abstract: Agricultural elements have been covered in the scenario process on shared socio-economic  pathways (SSPs) incompletely and pathways have not been specified for the future  development of the European Union. We will therefore devise a general framework on  European Representative Agricultural Pathways (EU-RAPs), where we cover different  aspects of agricultural development, as for example European and domestic agricultural and  environmental policies, or different livestock and crop management systems, and describe  future developments of the confederation of the countries of the European Union. For the  agricultural elements we distinguish between elements that can be derived from the  definitions in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, as for example irrigation efficiencies  which are linked to technological development, and elements that have to be newly devised  such as the development of the Common Agricultural Policy. For the future of the European  Union we develop five different worlds which correspond to the SSPs. Finally both  frameworks are combined.

Abstract: Climate and policy changes are likely to affect protein crop production and thus trade balances in Europe, which is highly dependent on imports. Exemplified for Austrian cropland, we developed an integrated modelling framework to analyze climate change and policy scenario impacts on protein crop production and environmental outcomes. The integrated modelling framework consists of a statistical climate change model, a crop rotation model, the bio-physical process model EPIC, and the economic bottom-up land use optimization model BiomAT. EPIC is applied to simulate annual dry matter crop yields for different crop management practices including crop rotations, fertilization intensities, and irrigation, as well as for 3 regional climate change scenarios until 2040 at a 1 km grid resolution. BiomAT maximizes total gross margins by optimizing land use choices and crop management practices subject to spatially explicit cropland endowments. The model results indicate that changes in agricultural policy conditions, cropland use, and higher flexibility in crop management practices may reduce protein import dependence under changing climatic conditions. Expanding protein crop production is most attractive in south-eastern Austria with its Central European continental climate where maize is most often replaced in crop rotations. However, the acreage of protein crops is limited by agronomically suitable cropland. An intended side effect is the reduction of nitrogen fertilizer inputs by about 0.1% if total protein crop production increases by 1%.