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Kirchner, M., Schmid, E., Mitter, H., & Schönhart, M. (2015). Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Market Integration on Agricultural Production and Land Use Management in Austria.
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Mitter, H., Schönhart, M., Meyer, I., Mechtler, K., Schmid, E., Sinabell, F., et al. (2015). Agriculture. In K. Steininger, M. König, B. Bednar-Friedl, L. Kranzl, W. Loibl, & F. Prettenthaler (Eds.), (pp. 121–144). Economic Evaluation of Climate Change Impacts. Development of a Cross-Sectoral Framework and Results for Austria. Vienna.
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Sinabell, F., Schönhart, M., & Schmid, E. (2015). Austrian Agriculture 2010-2050. Quantitative Effects of Climate Change Mitigation Measures. An analysis of the scenarios WEM, WAM, WAM+ and a sensitivity analysis of scenario WEM. Vienna, Austria.
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Havlik, P., Leclere, D., Valin, H., Herrero, M., Schmid, E., & Obersteiner, M. (2014). Effects of climate change on feed availability and the implications for the livestock sector. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Global mean surface temperature is projected to rise by 0.4-2.6°C until 2050, and the contrast in precipitations between wet and dry regions and wet and dry seasons will also increase according to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013). The climate change will impact livestock in many ways going from heat stress through livestock diseases to feed quality and availability (Thornton et al., 2009). Recently, projected climate change impacts on crop and grassland productivity became available with high spatial resolution at global scale through the AgMIP and ISI-MIP projects. The objective of this paper is to investigate how climate change impacts on crops and grassland will influence livestock production globally and its distribution across regions. This analysis is carried out using the global partial equilibrium agricultural and forestry sector model GLOBIOM (Havlík et al., 2013). The model represents agricultural production at a spatial resolution going down to 5 x 5 minutes of arc. Crop and grassland productivities are estimated by means of biophysical process based models (EPIC and CENTURY) at this resolution for current and future climate. Livestock representation follows a simplified version of the Seré and Steinfeld (1996) production system classification. This approach recognizes differences in feed base and productivities between grazing and mixed crop-livestock production systems across different agro-ecological zones (arid, humid, temperate/highlands). Our study highlights that the differential impacts of climate change on crop and grassland productivity will influence the relative competitiveness of different livestock production systems. Maintaining livestock production in some regions will depend on their capacity to adapt. Institutional and physical infrastructure will be needed to facilitate these transformations.
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Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., & Schmid, E. (2014). Integrated land use modelling of climate change impacts – preliminary results from two Austrian case study landscapes. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: We present an integrated land use modelling framework (ILM) to analyze impacts of climate change and CAP reform as well as farm adaptation using economic, biotic and abiotic indicators at field, farm and landscape scales. The IML is applied on the two contrasting landscapes in the Austrian MACSUR regional pilot study. The scenarios cover climate and policy changes until 2040. The anticipated policy changes lead to declines in farm gross margins by -36% and -5% in the two landscapes, respectively. In contrast, climate change leads to higher gross margins, where farms can reach pre-reform levels on average. Environmental impacts such as removing of landscape elements and increasing fertilization can be moderated by an agri-environmental program, but the opportunity costs of program participation may increase.
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