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Biewald, A., Rolinski, S., Lotze-Campen, H., Schmitz, C., & Dietrich, J. P. (2014). Valuing the impact of trade on local blue water. Ecol. Econ., 101, 43–53.
Abstract: International trade of agricultural goods impacts local water scarcity. By quantifying the effect of trade on crop production on grid-cell level and combining it with cell- and crop-specific virtual water contents, we are able to determine green and blue water consumption and savings. Connecting the information on trade-related blue water usage to water shadow prices gives us the possibility to value the impact of international food crop trade on local blue water resources. To determine the trade-related value of the blue water usage, we employ two models: first, an economic land- and water-use model, simulating agricultural trade, production and water-shadow prices and second, a global vegetation and agricultural model, modeling the blue and green virtual water content of the traded crops. Our study found that globally, the international trade of food crops saves blue water worth 2.4 billion US$. This net saving occurs despite the fact that Europe exports virtual blue water in food crops worth 3.1 billion US$. Countries in the Middle East and South Asia profit from trade by importing water intensive crops, countries in Southern Europe on the other hand export water intensive agricultural goods from water scarce sites, deteriorating local water scarcity. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Sándor, R., Ma, S., Acutis, M., Barcza, Z., Ben Touhami, H., Doro, L., et al. (2015). Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon–water fluxes from grasslands under climate change. Advances in Animal Biosciences, 6(01), 49–51.
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Sándor, R., Ma, S., Acutis, M., Barcza, Z., Ben, T., H., Doro, L., et al. (2014). Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon-water fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands under climate changes..
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Rolinski, S., & Sætnan, E. (2013). Uncertainties in climate change prediction and modelling (Vol. 1).
Abstract: As models become increasingly complex and integrated, uncertainty among model parameters, variables and processes become critical for evaluating model outcomes and predictions. A framework for understanding uncertainty in climate modelling has been developed by the IPCC and EEA which provides a framework for discussion of uncertainty in models in general. Here we report on a review of this framework along with the results of a survey of sources of uncertainty in livestock and grassland models. Along with the identification of key sources of uncertainty in livestock and grassland modelling, the survey highlighted the need for a development of a common typology for uncertainty. When collaborating across traditionally separate research fields, or when communicating with stakeholders, differences in understanding, interpretation or emphasis can cause confusion. Further work in MACSUR should focus on improving model intercomparison methods to better understand model uncertainties, and improve availability of high quality datasets which can reduce model uncertainties. No Label
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Kipling, R. P., Topp, C. F. E., Bannink, A., Bartley, D. J., Blanco-Penedo, I., Cortignani, R., et al. (2019). To what extent is climate change adaptation a novel challenge for agricultural modellers. Env. Model. Softw., 120, Unsp 104492.
Abstract: Modelling is key to adapting agriculture to climate change (CC), facilitating evaluation of the impacts and efficacy of adaptation measures, and the design of optimal strategies. Although there are many challenges to modelling agricultural CC adaptation, it is unclear whether these are novel or, whether adaptation merely adds new motivations to old challenges. Here, qualitative analysis of modellers’ views revealed three categories of challenge: Content, Use, and Capacity. Triangulation of findings with reviews of agricultural modelling and Climate Change Risk Assessment was then used to highlight challenges specific to modelling adaptation. These were refined through literature review, focussing attention on how the progressive nature of CC affects the role and impact of modelling. Specific challenges identified were: Scope of adaptations modelled, Information on future adaptation, Collaboration to tackle novel challenges, Optimisation under progressive change with thresholds, and Responsibility given the sensitivity of future outcomes to initial choices under progressive change.
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