Rötter, R. P. (2014). Cross-cutting uncertainties in MACSUR impact projections. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Projections into the future, such as climate change impact projections on crop production for a given region, or, on global food prices and trade are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty does not fall within a single discipline but is dealt with by a wide variety of disciplines, themes and problem domains. Model uncertainty pertaining to the impact modelling chain from climate via crop and livestock to economic and trade modelling is only part of the overall uncertainty*. There is also scenario uncertainty and many other known and unknown “unknowns”1 to be considered in efforts such as MACSUR and its themes (CropM, LiveM, TradeM) to advance model-based integrated assessment of climate change risk assessment for agriculture and food security. Propagation of uncertainties along the climate change impact modelling chain has been portrayed as “uncertainty cascade” 2. We will present different basic approaches for evaluating uncertainty in models. So far, studies addressing quantification and reporting of uncertainties in impact projections still largely focus on two major sources, i.e. the shares originating from climate modelling and from crop modelling. However, a more comprehensive treatment of uncertainty and how it is reported is urgently needed.
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Kersebaum, K. C., Kollas, C., Bindi, M., Palosuo, T., Wu, L., Sharif, B., et al. (2014). Model inter-comparison on crop rotation effects – an intermediate report. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Data of diverse crop rotations from five locations across Europe were distributed to modelers to investigate the capability of models to handle complex crop rotations and management interactions. Crop rotations comprise various main crops (winter/spring wheat, winter/spring barley, rye, oat, maize, sugar beet, oil seed rape and potatoes) plus several catch crops. The experimental setup of the datasets included treatments such as modified soils, crops exchanged within the rotations, irrigation/rainfed, nitrogen fertilization, residue management, tillage and atmospheric CO2 concentration. 19 modeling teams registered to model either the whole rotation or single crops. Models which are capable to run the whole rotation should provide transient as well as single year simulations with a reset of initial conditions. In the first step only initial soil conditions (water and soil mineral N) of the first year and key phenological stages were provided to the modelers. For calibration, crop yields and biomass were provided for selected years but not for all seasons. In total the combination of treatments and seasons results in 301 years of simulation. Results were analyzed to evaluate the effect of transient simulation versus single-year simulation regarding crop yield, biomass, water and nitrogen balance components. Model results will be evaluated crop-specifically to identify crops with highest uncertainty and potential for model improvement. Full data will be provided to modelers for model-improvement and results will provide insights into model capabilities to reproduce treatments and crops. Further, the question of error propagation along the transient simulation of crop rotations will be addressed.
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Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R., Rodríguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Tao, F., Pirttioja, N., et al. (2016). Wheat yield potential in Europe under climate change explored by adaptation response surfaces.. Montpellier (France).
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Ruiz-Ramos, M., Ferrise, R., Rodríguez, A., Lorite, I. J., Pirttioja, N., Fronzek, S., et al. (2016). Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe.. Vienna (Austria).
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Tao, F., Rötter, R. P., Palosuo, T., Hernández, C. G., Mínguez, M. I., Semenov, M., et al. (2016). Using crop model ensembles to design future climate-resilient barley cultivars.. Berlin (Germany).
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