Abstract: Impact response surfaces (IRSs) of spring and winter wheat yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect in Europe. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of 1981–2010 baseline weather.In spite of large differences in simulated yield responses to both baseline and changed climate between models, sites, crops and years, several common messages emerged. Ensemble average yields decline with higher temperatures (3–7% per 1°C) and decreased precipitation  (3–9% per 10% decrease), but benefit from increased precipitation (0-8% per 10% increase). Yields are more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities are mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminish under higher temperature changes. Inter-model variability is highest for baseline climate at the Spanish site, but relatively insensitive to changed climate. Modelled responses diverge most at the Finnish and German sites for winter wheat under temperature change. The IRS pattern of yield reliability tracks average yield levels. Inter-annual yield variability is more sensitive to precipitation than temperature, except at the Spanish site for spring wheat.Optimal temperatures for present-day cultivars are close to the baseline under Finnish conditions but below the baseline at the German and Spanish sites. This suggests that adoption of later maturing cultivars with higher temperature requirements might already be advantageous, and increasingly so under future warming. No Label

Abstract: The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. No Label

Abstract: Activities in the first 1 ½ years of CropM were related to key issues identified as critical at the beginning of the FACCE MACSUR the knowledge Hub. These include: Model intercomparisonGeneration of new data for model improvementMethods for scaling and model linkingUncertainty analysisBuilding research capacity Climate scenario data for crop models The key ambition of CropM has been to develop scientific excellence on methods for a comprehensive assessment of climate change impact, adaptation and policy on European crop production, agriculture and food security. Much progress has been made in developing a first shared continental assessment and tool for: A range of important cropsImportant crop rotationsAdvanced scaling methodsAdvanced link to farm and sector modelsNovel impact uncertainty assessment and reportingState-of-the-art scenario construction A number of concrete studies towards this aim have been launched in CropM workpackages (WPs): WP1-2: Two multi-facetted studies on crop rotation, launched in summer 2013 WP3: comprehensive scaling exercises, launched in March 2013WP4: Studies on (a) Climate scenario development, (b) impact response surface method and (c) Extremes, launched in summer 2013WP5: Analysis of transect across Europe with temperature effect (Space for Time) In addition, extended activities related to capacity building including several PhD courses (WP5) workshops (in WPs1-4) and an International Symposium (10-12 Feb, Oslo, Norway) have been organized. Present and future work is and will be focused on framing and advancing crop modelling as integrated part of comprehensive climate risk assessment and modelling of  agricultural systems for food security from farm to supra-national level.