Abstract: Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research directions and collaborative opportunities, and 2) for policy-makers involved in shaping the research agenda for European grassland modelling under climate change.

Abstract: Spring cereals are important agricultural crops in Northern Europe. The short growing season in this region necessitates early sowing. The earliest possible date is often determined by the soil water content, which usually decreases during and after snowmelt at rates varying with the weather and the soil characteristics. Tillage and sowing operations on soils with too high a water content can lead to soil compaction, increased soil erosion, and losses of nutrients and soil organic matter. Rainfall intensity also affects crop emergence, through its potentially negative effects on surface capping. The objective of this study was to determine the earliest possible sowing date of spring cereals for representative soil and climate scenarios in southeastern Norway. Criteria were set for pre-sowing tillage operations and sowing, based on the water content in differ soil layers and the incidence of rainfall. To determine the day of the year when these criteria were first met, the soil water content during the spring was simulated with the soil module in DSSAT v4.5. These simulations were performed for contrasting soil types and climate scenarios representing the period 1961-90 and 2046-65 respectively. For each combination of soil and climate, one hundred simulations with individual weather data were performed. The results provide information about the timing and variability of the optimal planting date for the current and projected climate in South Eastern Norway. No Label