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Virkajärvi, P., Lehtonen, H., & Järvenranta, K. (2015). Regional impacts of climate change, observations and projections. Finnish Pilot study: North Savo region. (Vol. 6, pp. SP6–5). Brussels.
Abstract: Regional adjustment of regulation is important (eg. water protection) Due to expected growing yield potential fertilisation restrictions need adjustmentNitrate directive restricts efficient and sustainable grass productionGreening practices have only slight – and partly negative – impact on ruminant production (permanent grassland not suitable for northern conditions)Inefficient markets for agricultural land cause difficulties for farms that are increasing their productionCapitalisation of area payments to land prices + incentives for extensification (e.g. nature management and other set aside schemes under pillar 2) fit better part-time crop farms, not full-time livestock farmsthey express frustration on weak land supplyProduction based support for suckler cows and (dairy originated) beef production is vital for producersNo significant increase in production expected, budgetary limits of coupled supports No Label
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Sector level agricultural development following different adaptations to climate change (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Future crop yields in northern Europe are subject to many factors and uncertainties, according to recent agro-ecological studies. Based on our farm level analysis, we concluded that prices of agricultural products are the primary drivers in the adaptation to climate change. They, as well as the policy conditions, affect the level of fertilization and the use of other inputs, land use and the intensity and the volume of agricultural production. We outlined 5 main scenarios of agricultural adaptation in Finland, and used an agricultural sector model to assess the impacts of the 5 scenarios on total production and land use in the whole country and in its four main regions. In the scenarios with unchanged product prices in the real terms, we find that a small increase or decrease in crop yields is possible. Significantly higher yields would require also 20-30% higher prices of crop products. Our sector modeling results suggest that avoiding decreases in crop yields is important for agricultural income in the long-term, even if livestock production in also maintained by national subsidies. Decreasing yields will result in increasing nutrient surplus and most likely in increased nutrient leaching, while increasing crop yields, even slightly, would significantly decrease nutrient surplus and increase farm income. Significant increases in crop yields and prices, however, are required before production clearly increases in Finland. Interestingly, cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, in the case of high future prices. This is explained by the abundant land resources, as well as the high opportunity cost of labor and policy systems maintaining current livestock production. No Label
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Pilot study at North Savo region (Vol. 5).
Abstract: Feed crop cultivation dominates land use in North Savo region where the value of dairy milk and beef production is approx. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production. Grass silage is produced on cultivated grasslands through grass-cereal rotations. There are restricted or no markets for silage. Dairy and beef farms, directly dependent on the quantity and quality of silage, are vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Long-term viability of farming is dependent on the long-term productivity development of feed crop production, and ability to cope with adverse weather conditions, affecting both quality and quantity of feed. Adaptation challenges include more frequent wet and dry conditions, increased pest and disease pressure, and overwintering problems, affecting quantity and quality of grass and cereals harvests. More frequent wet conditions are combined with larger farm size, higher axle loads of heavy machinery, increased risk of soil compaction, and high timeliness costs due to rapidly deteriorating feed quality if not harvested at the right time. Some solutions impose new investments and high costs. Results from bio-physical modeling show a clear need for new cultivars better suited in future climate. Various other solutions discussed with the farmers and extension specialists include improved maintenance of drainage and soil structure, to be promoted by crop rotation, soil improvements such as liming, as well as better crop protection. However, higher grass yields may be realized without considerably increased inter-annual yield variability. Needed long-term investments may thus lead to increased productivity under favorable market and policy conditions. No Label
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Lehtonen, H. (2015). Evaluating clover grass as a climate change adaptation measure in agriculture at the sector level (Vol. 4).
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Lehtonen, H. S., Liu, X., Purola, T., Rötter, R., & Palosuo, T. (2014). Farm level dynamic economic modelling of crop rotation with adaptation practices (Vol. 3).
Abstract: Agriculture is facing increasing challenges under volatile commodity markets, on-going climate change with more frequent extreme weather events and tightened environmental constraints. Crop rotation is considered essential and may even gain more importance for sustainable farming in the context of climate change challenges while monocropping is expected to become increasingly problematic. This is, among others, because of increasing plant protection challenges due to warmer climate which is expected to result in severe droughts, heavy rainfall and waterlogging in northern latitudes more frequently. Such changes require improved soil structure and water retention, also aided by crop rotations, to avoid yield losses. Our objective is to build and apply a dynamic optimization model of farm level crop rotation on many field parcels over 30-40 years. The model takes into account various adaptation management methods such as fungicide treatment, soil improvements such as liming, and nitrogen fertilization, simultaneously with dynamic crop rotation choices. However, these management options come along with costs. Using the model, outcomes of crop growth simulation modeling can be included into economic analysis. Simulated new cultivars, suited for a longer growing season, can be defined as alternatives to current cultivars, both having specific nutrient and other input requirements such as water, labor or pesticides. The model is used in evaluating the value of future cultivars and other management practices in climate and socio-economic scenarios. The first results show that expected market prices have major impacts on the management choices, the resulting yield levels, production and income over time. No Label
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