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Hoffmann, H., Zhao, G., Van Bussel, L. G. J., Enders, A., Specka, X., Sosa, C., et al. (2014). Influence of climate input data aggregation on simulated yield. ESA Congress, 13 Debrecen,.
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Ewert, F., van Bussel, L. G. J., Zhao, G., Hoffmann, H., Gaiser, T., Specka, X., et al. (2015). Uncertainties in Scaling up Crop Models for Large Area Climate-change Impact Assessments. In C. Rosenzweig, & D. Hillel (Eds.), (pp. 261–277). Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Integrated Crop and Economic Assessments — Joint Publication with American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America (In 2 Parts), ICP Series on Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation, . London: Imperial College Press.
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Hoffmann, H., Zhao, G., Van Bussel, L., Enders, A., Specka, X., Sosa, C., et al. (2014). Effects of climate input data aggregation on modelling regional crop yields. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Crop models can be sensitive to climate input data aggregation and this response may differ among models. This should be considered when applying field-scale models for assessment of climate change impacts on larger spatial scales or when coupling models across scales. In order to evaluate these effects systematically, an ensemble of ten crop models was run with climate input data on different spatial aggregations ranging from 1, 10, 25, 50 and 100 km horizontal resolution for the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. Models were minimally calibrated to typical sowing and harvest dates, and crop yields observed in the region, subsequently simulating potential, water-limited and nitrogen-limited production of winter wheat and silage maize for 1982-2011. Outputs were analysed for 19 variables (yield, evapotranspiration, soil organic carbon, etc.). In this study the sensitivity of the individual models and the model ensemble in response to input data aggregation is assessed for crop yield. Results show that the mean yield of the region calculated from climate time series of 1 km horizontal resolution changes only little when using climate input data of higher aggregation levels for most models. However, yield frequency distributions change with aggregation, resembling observed data better with increasing resolution. With few exceptions, these results apply to the two crops and three production situations (potential, water-, nitrogen-limited) and across models including the model ensemble, regardless of differences among models in simulated yield levels and spatial yield patterns. Results of this study improve the confidence of using crop models at varying scales.
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Haas, E., Klatt, S., Kiese, R., Santa Barbara Ruiz, I., & Kraus, D. (2014). Parameter-induced uncertainty quantification of a regional N2O and NO3 inventory using the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: In this study we quantify regional parameter-induced model uncertainty on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and nitrate (NO3) leaching from arable soils of Saxony (Germany) using the biogeochemical model LandscapeDNDC. For this we calculate a regional inventory using a joint parameter distribution for key parameters describing microbial C and N turnover processes as obtained by a Bayesian calibration study. We representatively sampled 400 different parameter vectors from the discrete joint parameter distribution comprising approximately 400,000 parameter combinations and used these to calculate 400 individual realizations of the regional inventory. The spatial domain (represented by 4042 polygons) is set up with spatially explicit soil and climate information and a region-typical 3-year crop rotation consisting of winter wheat, rape- seed, and winter barley. Average N2O emission from arable soils in the state of Saxony across all 400 realizations was 1.43 ± 1.25 [kg N / ha] with a median value of 1.05 [kg N / ha]. Using the default IPCC emission factor approach (Tier 1) for direct emissions reveal a higher average N2O emission of 1.51 [kg N / ha] due to fertilizer use. In the regional uncertainty quantification the 20% likelihood range for N2O emissions is 0.79 – 1.37 [kg N / ha] (50% likelihood: 0.46 – 2.05 [kg N / ha]; 90% likelihood: 0.11 – 4.03 [kg N / ha]). Respective quantities were calculated for nitrate leaching.
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Klatt, S., Haas, E., & Kiese, R. (2014). Responses of soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching on climate input data aggregation: a biogeochemistry model ensemble study. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Models are increasingly used to estimate greenhouse gas emissions at site to regional and national scales and are outlined as the most advanced methodology for national emission reporting in the framework of UNFCCC. Process-based models incorporate the major processes of the carbon and nitrogen cycle and are thus thought to be widely applicable at various spatial and temporal scales. The definition of the spatial scale is determined by the objectives. GHG emission reporting requests spatially and temporally aggregated information whereas for the assessment of mitigation options on hot spots and hot moments of emissions a high spatial simulation resolution is required. In addition, other input data also determine the simulation scale. Low resolution simulations needs less effort in computation and data management, but important details could be lost during the process of data aggregation associated with high uncertainties of the simulation results. This study presents the aggregation effects of climate input data on the simulations of soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching by comparing different biogeochemistry models. Using process-based models (DailyDayCent, LandscapeDNDC, Stics, Mode, Coup, Epic), we simulated a 30-year cropping system for two crops (winter wheat and maize monocultures) under water- and nutrient-limited conditions based on a 1 km resolution climate dataset. We aggregated the climate data to resolutions of 10, 25, 50, and 100 km and repeated the simulations on these spatial scales. We calculated the N2O emissions as well as the nitrate leaching on all scales. Results will be presented and discussed.
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