|
Lehtonen, H., Irz, X., Kahiluoto, H., Jansik, C., Kuisma, M., Kuosmanen, N., et al. (2013). Adaptation of the food sector and socio-economic impacts, of climate change in North-East Europe : Dairy sector adaptations and socio-economic, implications of climate change in Finland and Leningrad Oblast in, Russia (ADIOSO)..
|
Mäkinen, H., Kaseva, J., Trnka, M., Balek, J., Kersebaum, K. C., Nendel, C., et al. (2018). Sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather. Field Crops Research, 222, 209–217.
Abstract: The frequency and intensity of extreme weather is increasing concomitant with changes in the global climate change. Although wheat is the most important food crop in Europe, there is currently no comprehensive empirical information available regarding the sensitivity of European wheat to extreme weather. In this study, we assessed the sensitivity of European wheat yields to extreme weather related to phenology (sowing, heading) in cultivar trials across Europe (latitudes 37.21 degrees to 61.34 degrees and longitudes- 6.02 degrees to 26.24 degrees) during the period 1991-2014. All the observed agro-climatic extremes (>= 31 degrees C, >= 35 degrees C, or drought around heading; >= 35 degrees C from heading to maturity; excessive rainfall; heavy rainfall and low global radiation) led to marked yield penalties in a selected set of European cultivars, whereas few cultivars were found to with no yield penalty in such conditions. There were no European wheat cultivars that responded positively (+ 10%) to drought after sowing, or frost during winter (- 15 degrees C and – 20 degrees C). Positive responses to extremes were often shown by cultivars associated with specific regions, such as good performance under high temperatures by southern-origin cultivars. Consequently, a major future breeding challenge will be to evaluate the potential of combining such cultivar properties with other properties required under different growing conditions with, for example, long day conditions at higher latitudes, when the intensity and frequency of extremes rapidly increase.
|
Rötter, R. P., Höhn, J., Trnka, M., Fronzek, S., Carter, T. R., & Kahiluoto, H. (2013). Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change. Ecol. Evol., 3(12), 4197–4214.
Abstract: THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.
|
|
Webber, H., Kahiluoto, H., Rötter, R. P., & Ewert, F. (2014). Enhancing climate resilience of cropping systems. In J. Fuhrer, & P. J. Gregory (Eds.), (pp. 167–185). Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in Agricultural Systems. Wallingford: CAB International.
|
