Abstract: Forage-based dairy and livestock production is the backbone of agriculture in Northern Europe in economic terms. Changes in growing conditions that affect forage grass yield may have great economic consequences. This study assessed the impact of climate change on two grass species, timothy and ryegrass, at 14 locations in Northern Europe (Iceland, Scandinavia, Baltic countries) in a near-future scenario (2040-2065) compared with the baseline period 1960-1990. Local-scale climate scenarios were based on the CMIP3 multi-model ensembles of 15 global climate models in order to quantify the uncertainty in the impacts relating to highly uncertain projections of future climate. Potential yield of timothy, the most important perennial forage grass in Northern Europe, was simulated under the assumption of optimal overwintering conditions and current CO2 level, in order to obtain an estimate of the effect of changes in summer climate per se. The risk of frost and ice damage during winter was also assessed. The simulation results demonstrated that potential grass yield will increase throughout the study area, mainly as a result of increased growing temperatures. The yield response to climate change was slightly larger in irrigated than non-irrigated conditions (14% and 11%, respectively), due to larger water deficit for the 2050 scenario. However, a geo-climatic gradient was evident, with the largest predicted yield response at western locations. A geo-climatic gradient was also revealed with respect to potential frost damage, which was predicted to increase during winter in some areas east of the Baltic Sea for timothy, and for a larger number of locations both east and west of the Baltic Sea for perennial ryegrass. The risk of frost damage in spring was predicted to increase mainly in western parts of the study area. If frost damage to perennial ryegrass increases during winter, the expected increase in winter temperature due to global warming may not necessarily improve overwintering conditions, so the growing zone may not necessarily expand to the north and east of the study area by 2050. The uncertainty in impacts was frequently, but not consistently, greater in western than eastern locations. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Abstract: This report provides an overview of how grasslands are represented in six different farmscale  models represented in MACSUR. A survey was conducted, followed by a workshop in  which modellers discussed the results of the survey, and identified research challenges and  knowledge gaps. The workshop was attended by grassland as well as livestock specialists.  The investigated models differed largely with respect to how grasslands were represented,  e.g. as regards weather and management factors accounted for, spatial and temporal  resolution, and output variables. All models had grassland modules that simulate DM yield  and herbage N content (or crude protein (CP) content = N content x 6.25). Many models  also simulate P content, whereas only one simulate K content. About half of the model  simulate herbage energy value and/or herbage fibre content and fibre and/or dry matter  digestibility. Critical input data required from grassland models to simulate ruminant  productivity and GHG emissions at farm scale was identified by the workshop participants.  The different types of input data required were ranked in order of importance as regards  their influence on important system outputs. For simulation of ruminant productivity and  GHG emissions, herbage DM yield was ranked as the most important input variable from  grassland models, followed by CP content together with at least one variable describing  herbage fibre characteristics. These findings suggest that work on improving the ability of  the current grassland models with respect to simulation of fibre/energy should be  prioritized in farm-scale modelling aiming at quantifying livestock production and GHG  emissions under different management regimes and climate conditions. More work is also needed on model evaluation, a task that has not been prioritized yet for some models.