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Nguyen, T., Mula, L., Cortignani, R., Seddaiu, G., Dono, G., Virdis, S., et al. (2016). Perceptions of present and future climate change impacts on water availability for agricultural systems in the western Mediterranean region. Water, 8(11), 523 (18 pp).
Abstract: Many Mediterranean countries have experienced water shortages during the last 20 years and future climate change projections foresee further pressure on water resources. This will have significant implications for irrigation water management in agricultural systems in the future. Through qualitative and quantitative empirical research methods carried out on a case study on four Mediterranean farming systems located in Oristano, Italy, we sought to understand the relationship between farmers’ perceptions of climate change (i.e., increased temperature and decreased precipitation) and of present and future water availability for agriculture as forecasted by climatic and crop models. We also explored asymmetries between farmers’ perceptions and present and future climate change and water scenarios as well as factors influencing perceptions. Our hypotheses were that farmers’ perceptions are the main drivers of actual water management practices and that sustainable practices can emerge from learning spaces designed from the understanding of the gaps between perceptions and scientific evidences. Results showed that most farmers perceived that climate change is occurring or will occur in their area. They also perceived that there has been an increased temperature trend, but also increased precipitation. Therefore, they are convinced that they have and will have enough irrigation water for agriculture in the near future, while climate change projections foresee an increasing pressure on water resources in the Mediterranean region. Such results suggest the need for (i) irrigation management policies that take into account farmers’ perceptions in order to promote virtuous behaviors and improve irrigation water use efficiency; (ii) new, well-designed learning spaces to improve the understanding on climate change expectations in the near future in order to support effective adaptive responses at the farm and catchment scales.
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Cortignani, R. (2015). Common Agricultural Policy and climate variability changes: an impact assessment of the first-pillar reform on an agricultural area of Grana Padano in different climate scenarios (Vol. 5).
Abstract: The reform of the Common Agricultural Policy it started in 2015 with several innovative aspects. Regarding the first pillar, such aspects are especially the convergence of the basic payments, the green payments and the coupled payments. In this regard seems interesting carry out analysis about to evaluate the policy impact considering the risks and opportunities due to climate change.In this study the impact of the convergence of basic payments, the introduction of the green payments and the coupled payments has been evaluated on dairy cattle farms in the Grana Padano area. The impact has been evaluated in different climate scenarios by economic, social and environmental indicators. The methodology used is the mathematical programming and especially a model of Discrete Stochastic Programming has been used to represents farms of the FADN database.The main results show that a significant part of the farms is affected by the diversification constraint that reduces the land devoted to corn silage. Farmers could cultivate corn silage after a principal crop (e.g. ryegrass) in order to avoid the diversification constraint, however, determining a negative impact on the use of environmental resources. To consider also that in the future there is an increase of corn silage yields with long cycle.Another result to underline is that which concerns the possibility of soybean cultivation in the ecological focus areas. In fact, considering the coupled payment provided for this crop, the ecological focus areas seem to be an important source of income for the farms.Finally, the analysis shows that the convergence of the basic payment will result in a reallocation of direct payments between farms with a significant impact on farm incomes. No Label
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Topp, K., Eory, V., Bannink, A., Bartley, D. J., Blanco-Penedo, I., Cortignani, R., et al. (2017). Modelling climate change adaptation in European agriculture: Definitions and Current Modelling (Vol. 10).
Abstract: Confidential content, in preparation for a peer-reviewed publication.
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Dono, G., Cortignani, R., Doro, L., & Roggero, P. P. (2014). The adaptation of farm and awareness of ongoing climate change (CC). FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: Farm planning is based on awareness of climate variability, here assumed to depend on experience gained over the years, and to generate expectations on climatic variables. Expectations are based on probability distributions (pdfs) estimated on climate data and used to generate managing choices by means of Discrete Stochastic Programming. The model simulates the income losses in case farmers do not recognize the ongoing CC, and continue to plan assuming climate stability. In particular, the use of resources in 2010 is simulated based on the pdfs of the early 2000s, despite CC has changed the probabilities of the various states of nature. The model, calibrated with Positive Mathematical Programming, generates a 0.9% income increase when is allowed to adapt to 2010 climate pdfs. The model is also calibrated according to pdfs of 2010, i.e. recognizing CC: in this case income falls of 0.7% when farmers are simulated to use their soil mistakenly based of the 2000 pdfs. Given the short period of CC, the differences represent an appreciable error that farmers may be already committing. Properly specifying with the CC at local level can help building farmers’ awareness on it, and to properly manage their resources, recovering profitability.
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Pasqui, M., Quaresima, S., Tomozeiu, R., Dono, G., Doro, L., Cortignani, R., et al. (2014). A comprehensive climate characterization of the Oristano (Sardinia) regional pilot case study. FACCE MACSUR Mid-term Scientific Conference, 3(S) Sassari, Italy.
Abstract: In order to assess probability distributions of critical response variables in a full crop modelling system, a complete climate characterization has been implemented to identify principal variability components in the Oristano (Sardinia) regional pilot study area with a particular emphasis on current vs near future climate.
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