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Bojar, W., Sinabell, F., & Verburg, R. (2013). Economic and Trade Models to Analyze Climate Change Risk and Food Security for European Agriculture – A Survey..
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Bojar, W. (2013). Factsheets of the models (Vol. 1).
Abstract: The exploration of adaptation and mitigation measures in the context of global challenges like climate change, food security and expected demographic boom is an field of research of growing importance. Over the last decades many research groups have been developing economic-trade models to analyse consequences on farm welfare, market supply and trade, some of them also address food security and other global concerns. There are many different ways to tackle these issues and the specific advantages and limitations of alternative modelling strategies are not yet well understood. The objective of the WP1 T1.1 task within TradeM theme of MACSUR is to use the results of a survey on trade and economic models of MACSUR Consortium partners to show which topics are currently addressed in the different models, which methods are used and how well these tools are prepared for an integration with other models like climate, crop and livestock models. This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label
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Bojar, W., Knopik, L., Żarski, J., Sławiński, C., Baranowski, P., & Żarski, W. (2014). Impact of extreme climate changes on the forecasted agriculture production. Acta Agrophysica, 21(4), 415–431.
Abstract: The paper presents general characteristics of resources and outputs of agriculture in the Kujawsko-Pomorskie and Lubelskie Regions, based on statistical databases and literature review. Some specific features of the regions, with special consideration for the predicted extreme climate changes, are also included. Next, some statistically significant dependencies between the climatic parameters and yields of selected important crops in the abovementioned regions were worked out on the basis of empirical survey conducted in the University of Technology and Life Sciences, Bydgoszcz, and the Institute of Agrophysics in Lublin. Creating an appropriate method of forecasting long series of ten days without precipitation was necessary to find the desired dependencies. Third, some efforts were taken to make integrated assessments of forecast agricultural outputs influenced by climate extreme phenomena on the basis of the yield-precipitation relations obtained and on the data coming from wide area model regional outputs such as prices of farmland and produce.
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Hamidov, A., Helming, K., Bellocchi, G., Bojar, W., Dalgaard, T., Ghaley, B. B., et al. (2018). Impacts of climate change adaptation options on soil functions: A review of European case-studies. Land Degradation & Development, 29(8), 2378–2389.
Abstract: Soils are vital for supporting food security and other ecosystem services. Climate change can affect soil functions both directly and indirectly. Direct effects include temperature, precipitation, and moisture regime changes. Indirect effects include those that are induced by adaptations such as irrigation, crop rotation changes, and tillage practices. Although extensive knowledge is available on the direct effects, an understanding of the indirect effects of agricultural adaptation options is less complete. A review of 20 agricultural adaptation case-studies across Europe was conducted to assess implications to soil threats and soil functions and the link to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The major findings are as follows: (a) adaptation options reflect local conditions; (b) reduced soil erosion threats and increased soil organic carbon are expected, although compaction may increase in some areas; (c) most adaptation options are anticipated to improve the soil functions of food and biomass production, soil organic carbon storage, and storing, filtering, transforming, and recycling capacities, whereas possible implications for soil biodiversity are largely unknown; and (d) the linkage between soil functions and the SDGs implies improvements to SDG 2 (achieving food security and promoting sustainable agriculture) and SDG 13 (taking action on climate change), whereas the relationship to SDG 15 (using terrestrial ecosystems sustainably) is largely unknown. The conclusion is drawn that agricultural adaptation options, even when focused on increasing yields, have the potential to outweigh the negative direct effects of climate change on soil degradation in many European regions.
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Bojar, W., Knopik, L., & Zarski, J. (2014). Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting (Vol. 3).
Abstract: Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label
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