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| Author |
Lake, I.R.; Jones, N.R.; Agnew, M.; Goodess, C.M.; Giorgi, F.; Hamaoui-Laguel, L.; Semenov, M.A.; Solomon, F.; Storkey, J.; Vautard, R.; Epstein, M.M. |
| Title |
Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe |
Type |
Journal Article |
Year  |
2017 |
Publication |
Environ Health Perspect |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ Health Perspect |
| Volume |
125 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
385-391 |
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| Abstract |
BACKGROUND: Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. OBJECTIVES: We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) in Europe. METHODS: A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed’s range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. RESULTS: Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. CONCLUSIONS: Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173. |
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0091-6765 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4981 |
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Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
| Title |
Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges: An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland, the Netherlands |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
| Volume |
152 |
Issue |
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Pages |
154-164 |
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0308521x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4982 |
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Houska, T.; Kraft, P.; Liebermann, R.; Klatt, S.; Kraus, D.; Haas, E.; Santabarbara, I.; Kiese, R.; Butterbach-Bahl, K.; Müller, C.; Breuer, L. |
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Rejecting hydro-biogeochemical model structures by multi-criteria evaluation |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
| Volume |
93 |
Issue |
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Pages |
1-12 |
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Highlights • New method to investigate biogeochemical model structure performance. • Process based hydrological modelling can improve biogeochemical model predictions. • Modelling efficiency dramatically drops with multiple objectives. Abstract This work presents a novel way for assessing and comparing different hydro-biogeochemical model structures and their performances. We used the LandscapeDNDC modelling framework to set up four models of different complexity, considering two soil-biogeochemical and two hydrological modules. The performance of each model combination was assessed using long-term (8 years) data and applying different thresholds, considering multiple criteria and objective functions. Our results show that each model combination had its strength for particular criteria. However, only 0.01% of all model runs passed the complete rejectionist framework. In contrast, our comparatively applied assessments of single thresholds, as frequently used in other studies, lead to a much higher acceptance rate of 40–70%. Therefore, our study indicates that models can be right for the wrong reasons, i.e., matching GHG emissions while at the same time failing to simulate other criteria such as soil moisture or plant biomass dynamics. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4983 |
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Rusu, T.; Coste, C.L.; Moraru, P.I.; Szajdak, L.W.; Pop, A.I.; Duda, B.M. |
| Title |
Impact of climate change on agro-climatic indicators and agricultural lands in the Transylvanian Plain between 2008-2014 |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Carpathian Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences |
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12 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
23-34 |
| Keywords |
climate change; adaptation technologies; Transylvanian Plain |
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Integrated conservation and management of agricultural areas affected by the current global warming represents a priority at international level following the implementation of the principles of sustainable agriculture and adaptation measures. Transylvanian Plain (TP), with an area of 395,616 ha is of great agricultural importance for Romania, but with an afforestation degree of only 6.8% and numerous degradation phenomena of farmland, it has the lowest degree of sustainability to climate change. Monitoring of agro-climatic indicators and their evolution in between 2008-2014 and the analysis of the obtained data underlie the technological development of recommendations tailored to current favorable conditions for the main crops. Results obtained show that: the thermal regime of the soils in TP is of mesic type and the hydric regime is ustic; multiannual average of temperature in soil at 10 cm depth is 11.40ºC, respectively at 50 cm depth is 10.24ºC; the average yearly air temperature is 11.17ºC; multiannual average of soil moisture is 0.227 m3/m3; Multiannual average value of precipitation is 466.52 mm. During the studied period, compared with data series available (1961-1990; 1901-2000), clear decrease of the average quantities of rainfall especially during critical periods for crops, and increases in average temperatures for the entire year can be noticed. Between June and August the highest temperature difference were recorded, differences of +3.09°C to +3.65°C. There is an increase phenomenon of drought and heat; determined indicators show that most values, 61.11%, are commensurate with a semiarid climate. Aggression peaks are in February-April, July, and October-November, and for the whole period, in 19.43% of the cases are favorable and very favorable conditions for triggering erosion. Recommended agro-technical measures to limit and counteract the effects of drought, as a climatic phenomenon with major risk to agriculture in TP, refer to: i) use of a biological material resistant to water stress and heat; ii) use of management practices favorable for accumulation of, conservation and the efficient use of water from rainfall; iii) operating a system of conservation agriculture based on soil protection and desertification avoidance. |
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1842-4090; 1844-489x |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4984 |
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Hoffmann, M.P.; Haakana, M.; Asseng, S.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Fronzek, S.; Ewert, F.; Gaiser, T.; Kassie, B.T.; Paff, K.; Rezaei, E.E.; Rodríguez, A.; Semenov, M.; Srivastava, A.K.; Stratonovitch, P.; Tao, F.; Chen, Y.; Rötter, R.P. |
| Title |
How does inter-annual variability of attainable yield affect the magnitude of yield gaps for wheat and maize? An analysis at ten sites |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Syst. |
| Volume |
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Pages |
in press |
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Highlights • The larger simulated attainable yield for a specific crop season, the larger the yield gap. • Average size of the yield gap is not affected by the inter-annual variability of attainable yield. • Technology levels (resource input and accessibility) determine average yield gap. • To reduce yield gaps in rainfed environments, farmers need to improve season-specific crop management. Abstract Provision of food security in the face of increasing global food demand requires narrowing of the gap between actual farmer’s yield and maximum attainable yield. So far, assessments of yield gaps have focused on average yield over 5–10 years, but yield gaps can vary substantially between crop seasons. In this study we hypothesized that climate-induced inter-annual yield variability and associated risk is a major barrier for farmers to invest, i.e. increase inputs to narrow the yield gap. We evaluated the importance of inter-annual attainable yield variability for the magnitude of the yield gap by utilizing data for wheat and maize at ten sites representing some major food production systems and a large range of climate and soil conditions across the world. Yield gaps were derived from the difference of simulated attainable yields and regional recorded farmer yields for 1981 to 2010. The size of the yield gap did not correlate with the amplitude of attainable yield variability at a site, but was rather associated with the level of available resources such as labor, fertilizer and plant protection inputs. For the sites in Africa, recorded yield reached only 20% of the attainable yield, while for European, Asian and North American sites it was 56–84%. Most sites showed that the higher the attainable yield of a specific season the larger was the yield gap. This significant relationship indicated that farmers were not able to take advantage of favorable seasonal weather conditions. To reduce yield gaps in the different environments, reliable seasonal weather forecasts would be required to allow farmers to manage each seasonal potential, i.e. overcoming season-specific yield limitations. |
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0308521x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4985 |
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