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Author (up) Olesen, J.E.; Niemeyer, S.; Ceglar, A.; Roggero, P.-P.; Lehtonen, H.; Schönhart, M.; Kipling, R.
Title Section 5.3. Agriculture Type Book Chapter
Year 2017 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages 223-243
Keywords
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher European Environmental Agency Place of Publication Copenhagen, Denmark Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Climate change, impacts and vulnerability in Europe 2016. An indicator-based report Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume EEA Report (1/2017) Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, LiveM, TradeM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4964
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Author (up) Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Åby, B.A.; Persson, T.; Höglind, M.; Mittenzwei, K.
Title Combining models to estimate the impacts of future climate scenarios on feed supply, greenhouse gas emissions and economic performance on dairy farms in Norway Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Agricultural Systems Abbreviated Journal Agric. Syst.
Volume 157 Issue Pages 157-169
Keywords Climate change; Dairy farming; Dry matter yield; Economics; Greenhouse gas emission; Modelling
Abstract • This study combines crop, livestock and economic models.

• Models interaction is through use of relevant input and output variables.

• Future climate change will result in increased grass and wheat dry matter yields.

• Changes in grass, wheat and milk yields in future reduce farm emissions intensity.

• Changes in future dry matter yields and emissions lead to increased profitability.

There is a scientific consensus that the future climate change will affect grass and crop dry matter (DM) yields. Such yield changes may entail alterations to farm management practices to fulfill the feed requirements and reduce the farm greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from dairy farms. While a large number of studies have focused on the impacts of projected climate change on a single farm output (e.g. GHG emissions or economic performance), several attempts have been made to combine bio-economic systems models with GHG accounting frameworks. In this study, we aimed to determine the physical impacts of future climate scenarios on grass and wheat DM yields, and demonstrate the effects such changes in future feed supply may have on farm GHG emissions and decision-making processes. For this purpose, we combined four models: BASGRA and CSM-CERES-Wheat models for simulating forage grass DM and wheat DM grain yields respectively; HolosNor for estimating the farm GHG emissions; and JORDMOD for calculating the impacts of changes in the climate and management on land use and farm economics. Four locations, with varying climate and soil conditions were included in the study: south-east Norway, south-west Norway, central Norway and northern Norway. Simulations were carried out for baseline (1961–1990) and future (2046–2065) climate conditions (projections based on two global climate models and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B GHG emission scenario), and for production conditions with and without a milk quota. The GHG emissions intensities (kilogram carbon dioxide equivalent: kgCO2e emissions per kg fat and protein corrected milk: FPCM) varied between 0.8 kg and 1.23 kg CO2e (kg FPCM)− 1, with the lowest and highest emissions found in central Norway and south-east Norway, respectively. Emission intensities were generally lower under future compared to baseline conditions due mainly to higher future milk yields and to some extent to higher crop yields. The median seasonal above-ground timothy grass yield varied between 11,000 kg and 16,000 kg DM ha− 1 and was higher in all projected future climate conditions than in the baseline. The spring wheat grain DM yields simulated for the same weather conditions within each climate projection varied between 2200 kg and 6800 kg DM ha− 1. Similarly, the farm profitability as expressed by total national land rents varied between 1900 million Norwegian krone (NOK) for median yields under baseline climate conditions up to 3900 million NOK for median yield under future projected climate conditions.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language phase 2 Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5172
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Author (up) Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; Kipling, R.
Title Understanding the potential of existing models to characterize animal health conditions and estimate greenhouse gas emissions Type Report
Year 2017 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 10 Issue Pages L2.2-D2
Keywords
Abstract The primary objective of this study was to assess the status and priorities for future development in modelling of the impacts of animal health on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It also aimed to facilitate communication between experimental researchers and modellers by defining a list of parameters that are needed to model livestock health and disease, and the impact of health conditions on GHG emissions. The summary presented here provides a brief overview of ongoing work, which the L2.1/L2.2 partners, with support from the Global Research Alliance Animal Health Network (GRA AHN), is currently developing into a paper for publication in a peer reviewed journal.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes LiveM Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4979
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Author (up) Park, S.K.; Sungmin, O.; Cassardo, C.
Title Soil temperature response in Korea to a changing climate using a land surface model Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences Abbreviated Journal Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences
Volume 53 Issue 4 Pages 457-470
Keywords Land surface process; soil temperature; climate change; soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme; University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SNOW COVER; WATER-RESOURCES; SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS; QUANTITATIVE-ANALYSIS; MESOSCALE MODEL; SRES EMISSIONS; FUTURE CLIMATE; CHANGE IMPACTS; SOUTH-AMERICA
Abstract The land surface processes play an important role in weather and climate systems through its regulation of radiation, heat, water and momentum fluxes. Soil temperature (ST) is one of the most important parameters in the land surface processes; however, there are few extensive measurements of ST with a long time series in the world. According to the CLImatology of Parameters at the Surface (CLIPS) methodology, the output of a trusted Soil-Vegetation- Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) scheme can be utilized instead of observations to investigate the regional climate of interest. In this study, ST in South Korea is estimated in a view of future climate using the output from a trusted SVAT scheme – the University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), which is driven by a regional climate model. Here characteristic changes in ST are analyzed under the IPCC A2 future climate for 2046-2055 and 2091-2100, and are compared with those under the reference climate for 1996-2005. The UTOPIA results were validated using the observed ST in the reference climate, and the model proved to produce reasonable ST in South Korea. The UTOPIA simulations indicate that ST increases due to environmental change, especially in air temperature (AT), in the future climate. The increment of ST is proportional to that of AT except for winter. In wintertime, the ST variations are different from region to region mainly due to variations in snow cover, which keeps ST from significant changes by the climate change.
Address 2017-12-21
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1976-7633 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5182
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Author (up) Persson, T.; Kværnø, S.
Title Impact of projected mid-21st century climate and soil extrapolation on simulated spring wheat grain yield in Southeastern Norway Type Journal Article
Year 2017 Publication Journal of Agricultural Science Abbreviated Journal J. Agric. Sci.
Volume 155 Issue 03 Pages 361-377
Keywords
Abstract The effects of soil variability on regional crop yield under projected climate change are largely unknown. In Southeastern Norway, increased temperature and precipitation are projected for the mid-21st century. Crop simulation models in combination with scaling techniques can be used to determine the regional pattern of crop yield. In the present paper, the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model was applied to simulate regional spring wheat yield for Akershus and Østfold counties in Southeastern Norway. Prior to the simulations, parameters in the CSM-CROPSIM-CERES-Wheat model were calibrated for the spring wheat cvars Zebra, Demonstrant and Bjarne, using cultivar trial data from Southeastern Norway and site-specific weather and soil information. Weather input data for regional yield simulations represented the climate in 1961–1990 and projections of the climate in 2046–2065. The latter were based on four Global Climate Models and greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B in the IPCC 4th Assessment Report. Data on regional soil particle size distribution, water-holding characteristics and organic matter data were obtained from a database. To determine the simulated grain yield sensitivity to soil input, the number of soil profiles used to describe the soilscape in the region varied from 76 to 16, 5 and 1. The soils in the different descriptions were selected by arranging them into groups according to similarities in physical characteristics and taking the soil in each group occupying the largest area in the region to represent other soils in that group. The simulated grain yields were higher under all four projected future climate scenarios than the corresponding average yields in the baseline conditions. On average across the region, there were mostly non-significant differences in grain yield between the soil extrapolations for all cultivars and climate projections. However, for sub-regions grain yield varied by up to 20% between soil extrapolations. These results indicate how projected climate change could affect spring wheat yield given the assumed simulated conditions for a region with similar climate and soil conditions to many other cereal production regions in Northern Europe. The results also provide useful information about how soil input data could be handled in regional crop yield determinations under these conditions.
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0021-8596 ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5009
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