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Wallach, D.; Thorburn, P.; Asseng, S.; Challinor, A.J.; Ewert, F.; Jones, J.W.; Rötter, R.; Ruane, A. |
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Overview paper on comprehensive framework for assessment of error and uncertainty in crop model predictions |
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2016 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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8 |
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C4.1-D |
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MACSUR_ACK; CropM |
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Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. Several ways of quantifying prediction uncertainty have been explored in the literature, but there have been no studies of how the different approaches are related to one another, and how they are related to some overall measure of prediction uncertainty. Here we show that all the different approaches can be related to two different viewpoints about the model; either the model is treated as a fixed predictor with some average error, or the model can be treated as a random variable with uncertainty in one or more of model structure, model inputs and model parameters. We discuss the differences, and show how mean squared error of prediction can be estimated in both cases. The results can be used to put uncertainty estimates into a more general framework and to relate different uncertainty estimates to one another and to overall prediction uncertainty. This should lead to a better understanding of crop model prediction uncertainty and the underlying causes of that uncertainty. This study was published as (Wallach et al. 2016) |
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MA @ office @ |
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2954 |
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Calanca, P. |
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Modelling the impacts of seasonal drought on herbage growth under climate change |
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2016 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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8 |
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SP8-3 |
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Conference presentation PDF |
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LiveM2016: International livestock modelling conference – Modelling grassland-livestock systems under climate change |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4837 |
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Mínguez, M.I. |
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Agriculture in Spain and the climate change issue |
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2016 |
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Watch Letter |
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Watch Lett. |
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37 |
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ftnotmacsur |
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Climate change awareness is pushing research and innovation in agriculture. Studies are booming on phenology and heat stress physiology – in parallel with improvement of their simulation in crop models- water use, irrigation requirements and improvement – be it deficit, strategic or precision irrigation-, cereal grain quality, and pest and disease evolution; large international and European research projects are working on these and mapping new areas for cultivation or species/cultivar changes. |
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International Center for Advanced Mediterranean Agronomic Studies CIHEAM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4881 |
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Köchy, M. |
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MACSUR?3! The future of MACSUR |
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2016 |
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Potsdam (Germany) |
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LiveM 2016 conference: Modelling Grassland-Livestock Systems under Climate Change, 2016-06-15 to 2016-06-16, Potsdam, Germany |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4882 |
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Köchy, M. |
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Title |
Progress in Cross-cutting activities in FACCE MACSUR |
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2016 |
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Gardermoen (Norway) |
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FACCE MACSUR XC Workshop 2016, 2016-10-13, Gardermoen, Norway |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4883 |
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