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Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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10 |
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4 |
Pages |
045004 |
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climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios |
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Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world. |
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English |
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1748-9326 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4649 |
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Author |
Saetnan, E.R. |
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Title |
Capacity building strategy |
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Report |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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7 |
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XC4.1.1-D |
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Introduction Raising the capacity of established researchers Capacity for cross-theme collaboration Short “Master Classes” Raising the capacity of early career researchers PhD/ECR training courses Training integrative and international modellers through a Marie Curie ITN Raising the capacity of our stakeholders MACSUR input to the Advanced Training Partnership (ATP) |
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XC, LiveM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4949 |
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Author |
Iglesias, A. |
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Exploring the impacts of CAP relative to climate with respect to adaptation |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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SP6-9 |
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This presentation is intended as a teaser, to spark discussions. Argument: Adaptation policy is not enough to compensate climate risks or to take advantage of opportunities No Label |
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Brussels |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2088 |
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Author |
Lotze-Campen, H. |
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Title |
EU-level assessments and scenarios |
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Conference Article |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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SP6-8 |
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Shared socio-economic pathways are used to look at particular possible futures of major trends in global socio-economic trends (e.g. global population, GDP, urbanization, strength of political institutions, international trade). These scenarios make no inference to their likelihood of becoming true. These scenarios are used in MACSUR to assess different questions, e.g.•What is the future of agricultural prices?•How will agricultural production and food consumption evolve?•How will climate change impacts and mitigation affect…–Prices–Land use–Trade–Undernourishment No Label |
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Brussels |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2087 |
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Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Kuttner, M.; Schmid, E. |
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Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Landscape level: Mostviertel, Austria |
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Conference Article |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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SP6-6 |
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ConclusionsIncreasing productivity can increase intensification pressuresThreatened permanent (extensive) grasslands and landscape elements, butsubject to resource constraints, costs and prices andfuture production potential to increase global food supplyFuture RDP and environmental policy design (e.g. WFD) should take changing productivity into accountHeterogeneity matters at farm and regional levelChanging relative competitiveness of farmsFuture research: analyze uncertainties No Label |
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Brussels |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2085 |
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