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| Author |
Lehtonen, H. |
| Title |
Pilot study at North Savo region |
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| Year |
2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-35 |
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Feed crop cultivation dominates land use in North Savo region where the value of dairy milk and beef production is approx. 70 % of the total value of agricultural production. Grass silage is produced on cultivated grasslands through grass-cereal rotations. There are restricted or no markets for silage. Dairy and beef farms, directly dependent on the quantity and quality of silage, are vulnerable to adverse weather conditions. Long-term viability of farming is dependent on the long-term productivity development of feed crop production, and ability to cope with adverse weather conditions, affecting both quality and quantity of feed. Adaptation challenges include more frequent wet and dry conditions, increased pest and disease pressure, and overwintering problems, affecting quantity and quality of grass and cereals harvests. More frequent wet conditions are combined with larger farm size, higher axle loads of heavy machinery, increased risk of soil compaction, and high timeliness costs due to rapidly deteriorating feed quality if not harvested at the right time. Some solutions impose new investments and high costs. Results from bio-physical modeling show a clear need for new cultivars better suited in future climate. Various other solutions discussed with the farmers and extension specialists include improved maintenance of drainage and soil structure, to be promoted by crop rotation, soil improvements such as liming, as well as better crop protection. However, higher grass yields may be realized without considerably increased inter-annual yield variability. Needed long-term investments may thus lead to increased productivity under favorable market and policy conditions. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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2150 |
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| Author |
Lauwers, L. |
| Title |
Participatory modelling for strategy design on dairy farms |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-34 |
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To comply with complexity in farming and social demands with respect to farming practices, to remain competitive in and resilient to an ever changing decision environment, today’s farm managers need to develop an extensive portfolio of activities, made coherent by an overall strategic vision. This paper focusses on dairy farming, which shows complexity by integrating crop and livestock processes and faces nowadays important challenges from its social and market environment. The aim is twofold: first, what does strategic thinking mean in dairy farming and what kind of strategic decisions are eligible for a sustainable development, second, what kind of methodological framework can be built to support the farmer’s strategic thinking and decision making. The novel strategy exploration implies not only the mere crop-livestock organization alternatives, but also creatively looks for resilience increasing activities that allow for flexible food nonfood substitutions, multiple valorization trajectories and alternative multi-agents arrangements. Concrete examples include agroforestry, alternative nutrient throughputs or composting. The methodological support focusses on four principles: (i) integrative, considering the whole-farm scale, (iii) normative, leading to improved decision making, (iii)participatory, compiling transdisciplinary knowledge and (iv) communicative, using typical farm benchmarking. Findings are brought together from literature, own research experiences on dairy farm management and interaction with stakeholders, amongst other the technical sciences researchers in the MACSUR knowledge hub. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2149 |
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| Author |
Lacetera, N. |
| Title |
Season and temperature humidity index related changes of productive and health parameters in dairy cows and pigs |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-33 |
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The work described herein was based on construction and query of four different large databases which included multiannual (5-7 years) meteorological, productive and health data from the field. Productive data were referred to dairy cows and included milk yield and composition (total bacterial count, fat and protein percentages) whereas health data were relative both to dairy cows (milk somatic cell counts and mortality data) and pigs (mortality data during transport and at lairage). The analysis pointed out significant seasonal variations of parameters under study. In synthesis, summer/hot season was associated with significant worsening of cows’ milk composition and with significant higher risk of death in pigs. The analysis also permitted to establish the themperature humidity index values above which a significant decline of performance and health of dairy cows or pigs has to expected. These results may help to predict the consequences of climate change in economically important sectors of the livestock industry, to identify and target adaptation options that are appropriate for specific contexts and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to economic development. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2148 |
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| Author |
Kuhnert, M. |
| Title |
Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-32 |
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In spatial modelling of Net Primary Productivity (NPP), predictability and uncertainty depends on the availability of input data, as well as on the scale of the available data sets. Therefore, the study presented here quantifies the impact of aggregation effect of input data of different scales for a regional modelling approach using 5 different resolutions. As part of this study, the presentation focuses on the impact of the climate aggregation on the simulation of NPP. The effect is investigated on the model results of 11 different crop and biogeochemical models simulating NPP for wheat and maize for the area of the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia. The focus of the study is on the impact of drought effects across the scales considered. The data are analysed on annual time steps we followed two approaches to investigate the impact of water limitation on primary production: First, two model runs, one considers water limitation and the other one ignores the impacts of water limitation on plant production second, an external definition of dry conditions by a drought index, only considering climate data, enables a separation of grid-cells and years with drought impacts, independent of the model internal functions. The results show hardly any difference between the overall average NPP across the scales, but some variability for the impact of extreme weather conditions on the simulated NPP. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2147 |
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Knox, J. |
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Meta-analysis of recent scientific evidence on climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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5 |
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Sp5-30 |
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Projected changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security (Daccache et al., 2014). We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven crops (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 67 original publications from an initial screening of 1424 studies. Whilst similar studies exist for Africa and South Asia (Roudier et al., 2011; Knox et al., 2012), surprisingly, no such comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Our study focussed on the biophysical impacts of climate change on productivity (i.e. yield per unit area) and did not consider ‘food production’ as this is dependent on many ‘non-biophysical’ factors, such as international trade policy and world markets. The data relate to the projected mean yield variations for each crop type, for all crop models, all GCM models and all time slices.For Europe, most studies projected a positive impact on yield; the reported increases largely being due to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations enhancing both productivity and resource use efficiencies. Overall, a mean yield increase of +14% was identified, but with large differences between individual crops (e.g. wheat +22%; potato +12%) and regions (e.g. northern Europe +17%; southern Europe +7%). It is important to note that projected yield data were not available for all crops in all regions, so lack of a significant response may in part be due to the absence, or limited number of studies for certain crops and/or regions. Furthermore, the results include all reported yield projections, for all time slices, for all GCM combinations (whether single or ensemble) and for all crop modelling approaches (whether based on simple statistical trends or more complex biophysical modelling approaches). This highlights the magnitude of variability that exists when all possible sources of uncertainty are included. Further statistical analyses were conducted to disaggregate the data by time slice, climate and crop model to identify which factors were likely to contribute most to yield variations and uncertainty.The SR showed that evidence of climate change impacts on crop yield in Europe is extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato but very limited for barley, rice and rye. Interpreting the reported yield observations was compounded by ‘effect modifiers’ or reasons for heterogeneity. These included different emission scenarios and climate ensembles, implicit assumptions regarding crop varieties, the agricultural systems studied, and assumed levels of mechanization and crop husbandry. Despite its limitations, the SR helps identify where further research should be targeted and regions where adaptation will be most needed. It confirms that climate change is likely to increase productivity of Europe’s major agricultural cropping systems, with more favourable impacts in northern and central Europe. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2145 |
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