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| Author |
Bojar, W.; Żarski, J.; Knopik, L.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R.; Sikora, M.; Dzieża, G. |
| Title |
Markov chain as a model of daily total precipitation and a prediction of future natural events |
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Conference Article |
| Year |
2015 |
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| Keywords |
ft_macsur; MACSUR or FACCE acknowledged. |
| Abstract |
The size of arable crop yields depends on many weather factors, such as precipitation and air temperature during the vegetation period. When studying the relation between yields and precipitation, not only the total amount of precipitation, but also the occurrence of long periods without precipitation must be taken into account. The paper [Bojar et al., 2014] demonstrated that barley yield significantly statistically depends on the length of the series of days without precipitation. This paper attempts to analyse the statistical data on daily precipitation totals recorded during the January – December periods in the years 1971 – 2013 at the weather station of the University of Science and Technology in Bydgoszcz, Faculty of Agriculture and Biotechnology, in the Research Centre located in an agricultural area in the Mochle township, situated 17 kilometres from Bydgoszcz. The primary statistical operation in the study is an attempt to estimate the Markov chain order. To this end, two criteria of chain order determination are applied: BIC (Bayesian information criterion, Schwarz 1978) and AIC (Akaike information criterion, Akaike 1974). Both are based on the log-likelihood functions for transition probability of the Markov chain constructed on certain data series. Statistical analysis of precipitation totals data leads to the conclusion that both AIC and BIC indicate the 2nd order for the studied Markov chain. The proposed method of estimating the variability of precipitation occurrence in the future will be utilised to improve region-related bio-physical and economical models, and to assess the risk of extreme events in the context of growing climate hazards. It will serve as basis for a search in agriculture for solutions mitigating those hazards. |
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Braunschweig (Germany) |
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FACCE MACSUR Joint Workshops October 2015, 2015-10-27 to 2015-10-30, Braunschweig |
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Approved |
no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4395 |
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| Author |
Abadie, L.M.; Galarraga, I.; Milford, A.B.; Gustavsen, G.W. |
| Title |
Achieving Emission Reduction Targets by Changing Eating Habits in Norway |
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Manuscript |
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2015 |
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TradeM |
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2271 |
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| Author |
Semenov, M. |
| Title |
Local-scale climate scenarios based on ensembles of global/regional climate models for regional applications in Europe |
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Report |
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2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
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D-C4.3.1 |
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Local-scale climate scenarios based on ensembles of global/regional climate models for regional applications in Europe is a deliverable for WP4 ‘Scenario development and impact uncertainty evaluation’. We developed the integration of 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-ENSEMBLES and CMIP3 projects with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to update ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios, for use in impact assessment studies in Europe. No Label |
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2232 |
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Lacetera, N.; Vitali, A.; Bernabucci, U.; Nardone, A. |
| Title |
Report on relationships between THI and dairy cow performance |
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Report |
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2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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4 |
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D-L1.2.3 |
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The work carried out under LiveM, L1.2 and described herein was based on construction and query of large databases which included multiannual productive and health field data. Productive data referred to dairy cows and included milk yield and composition, whereas health data were relative both to dairy cows and pigs. The analysis established the THI values above which a significant decline in the performance and health of dairy cows or pigs is to be expected. These results may help to adopt management environmental strategies which may permit to limit THI increase under farming conditions and/or to provide animals with interventions which may reduce heat load and/or increase dissipation of heat. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2217 |
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Lacetera, N.; Vitali, A.; Bernabucci, U.; Nardone, A. |
| Title |
Report on the analysis of interannual and seasonal variations in productive, reproductive and health data |
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Report |
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2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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4 |
Issue |
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Pages |
D-L1.2.2 |
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The work carried out under LiveM, L1.2 and described herein was based on construction and query of large databases which included multiannual productive and health field data. Productive data referred to dairy cows, whereas health data were relative both to dairy cows and pigs. The analysis pointed out significant seasonal variations of parameters under study. In synthesis, summer/hot season was associated with significant worsening of dairy cows milk composition and with significant higher risk of death in pigs. These results may help to predict consequences of climate change in economically important sectors of the livestock industry and also to identify and target adaptation options that are appropriate for specific contexts, and that can contribute to environmental sustainability as well as to economic development. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2216 |
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