| Records |
Author  |
van Bussel, L.G.J.; Stehfest, E.; Siebert, S.; Müller, C.; Ewert, F. |
| Title |
Simulation of the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Global Ecology and Biogeography |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. |
| Volume |
24 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
1018-1029 |
| Keywords |
Agricultural management; crop calendars; cultivar; variety characteristics; global crop modelling; global harvest dates; phenology; climate-change; winter-wheat; annual crops; photoperiod sensitivity; geographical variation; temperature; responses; adaptation; cultivars; model |
| Abstract |
AimTo derive location-specific parameters that reflect the geographic differences among cultivars in vernalization requirements, sensitivity to day length (photoperiod) and temperature, which can be used to simulate the phenological development of wheat and maize at the global scale. LocationGlobal. Methods Based on crop calendar observations and literature describing the large-scale patterns of phenological characteristics of cultivars, we developed algorithms to compute location-specific parameters to represent this large-scale pattern. Vernalization requirements were related to the duration and coldness of winter, sensitivity to day length was assumed to be represented by the minimum and maximum day lengths occurring at a location, and sensitivity to temperature was related to temperature conditions during the vegetative development phase of the crop. Results Application of the derived location-specific parameters resulted in high agreement between simulated and observed lengths of the cropping period. Agreement was especially high for wheat, with mean absolute errors of less than 3 weeks. In the main maize cropping regions, cropping periods were over- and underestimated by 0.5-1.5 months. We also found that interannual variability in simulated wheat harvest dates was more realistic when accounting for photoperiod effects. Main conclusions The methodology presented here provides a good basis for modelling the phenological characteristics of cultivars at the global scale. We show that current global patterns of growing season length as described in cropping calendars can be largely reproduced by phenology models if location-specific parameters are derived from temperature and day length indicators. Growing seasons can be modelled more accurately for wheat than for maize, especially in warm regions. Our method for computing parameters for phenology models from temperature and day length offers opportunities to improve the simulation of crop productivity by crop simulation models developed for large spatial areas and for long-term climate impact projections that account for adaptation in the selection of varieties |
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English |
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| ISSN |
1466-822x |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4729 |
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| Author |
Twardy, S.; Kopacz, M. |
| Title |
The role of permanent grasslands in mountain areas: Study on agri-environmental importance of permanent grasslands – based on research carried out in the upper Dunajec River basin and Grajcarek Stream basin |
Type |
Book Whole |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
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Issue |
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Pages |
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| Keywords |
CropM; LiveM |
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Falenty-Krakow |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2868 |
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| Author |
Tsutsumi, Y. |
| Title |
Comparing bio-economic farm models: evaluating uncertainty of impacts of climate and socio-economic changes on arable farming in Flevoland (the Netherlands) |
Type |
Book Whole |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
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Thesis |
Master's thesis |
| Publisher |
Wageningen University |
Place of Publication |
Wageningen |
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M.Sc. |
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M.Sc. |
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CropM |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5156 |
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| Author |
Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.; Christian,; Olesen, J.E. |
| Title |
Description of the compiled experimental data available in the MACSUR CropM database |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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| Volume |
6 |
Issue |
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Pages |
D-C2.1 |
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| Abstract |
The input data necessary for crop model simulations and data for their calibration/validation (and thus requirements for observations and measurements in suitable experiments) have been collected through out the project together with data for additional analysis of abiotic factors influencing yields. A list of possible dataset was collated in the first year of project however very few of the existing datasets were found usable for the crop model simulation as they fell short of the requirements defined in the part 2.3. However database has been populated as planned with the results of the ongoing MACSUR studies and will serve in the same way for the MACSUR 2 duration. No Label |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2090 |
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| Author |
Trnka, M.; Hlavinka, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
| Title |
Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of the Royal Society Interface |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. R. Soc. Interface |
| Volume |
12 |
Issue |
112 |
Pages |
20150721 |
| Keywords |
climate change; extreme events; food security; winter wheat |
| Abstract |
Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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English |
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1742-5689 1742-5662 |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4819 |
| Permanent link to this record |
