| Records |
| Author |
Valin, H.; Sands, R.D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D. and; Nelson, G.C.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Bodirsky; Benjamin; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; and Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Mason-D’Croz, D.; Paltsev; Sergey; Rolinski, S.; Tabeau, A.; van Meijl, H. and; von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D. |
Title  |
The future of food demand: Understanding differences in global economic models |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
| Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
51-67 |
| Keywords |
world food demand; socioeconomic pathways; climate change; computable general equilibrium; partial equilibrium; systems |
| Abstract |
Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59-98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9\% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is -6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller. |
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0169-5150 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4752 |
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Köchy, M. |
| Title |
The FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Scientific Conference: ‘Achievements, Activities, Advancement’ |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
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Pages |
M-H3.5 |
| Keywords |
Hub |
| Abstract |
The mid-term meeting was held in Sassari, Sardinia, 1-4 April 2014. The meeting was attended by 120 researchers and stakeholders from 16 countries (Fig. 1). After a day of looking back on the achievements during the first two years and presenting results to stakeholders, researchers focused on fine-tuning the planning of remaining work for the project till May 2015 and preparations for a follow-up project (MACSUR2) till May 2017. On an excursion, scientists and stakeholders visited farms in the Oristano region, one of the regional case studies of MACSUR. The meeting was a unique opportunity in this pan-European project for discussing in person common issues with and among stakeholders of different regions and how to approach the impact of climate change to producing food in Europe in a world with a growing population. A report in La Nueva Sardegna highlighted the conference. Excursion: dairy sheep farm “Su Pranu” (Siamanna), dairy cattle farm “Sardo Farm” (Arborea), Arborea Cooperative Recordings of the presentations are available on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCrjoXlUIJNBW8cWOgh0_g The presentations are available on the conference website: http://ocs.macsur.eu/index.php/Hub/Mid-term/schedConf/presentations Short papers derived from the presentations are available on the conference website and in FACCE MACSUR Reports vol 5. The food consumed during lunches at the conference originated mostly from the Oristano region. Remaining food in good condition was donated to a charity organisation for needy people. Fig. 1. Number of participants per country. |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2267 |
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Bernabucci, U.; Biffani, S.; Buggiotti, L.; Vitali, A.; Lacetera, N.; Nardone, A. |
| Title |
The effects of heat stress in Italian Holstein dairy cattle |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Journal of Dairy Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Dairy Sci. |
| Volume |
97 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
471-486 |
| Keywords |
Animals; Breeding; Cattle; Dietary Fats/analysis; Dietary Proteins/analysis; Female; Genetic Variation; Heat Stress Disorders/*veterinary; *Hot Temperature; Humans; Humidity; *Lactation; Linear Models; Milk/chemistry; Parity; Phenotype; Weather; dairy cow; heritability; production trait; temperature-humidity index breaking point |
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The data set for this study comprised 1,488,474 test-day records for milk, fat, and protein yields and fat and protein percentages from 191,012 first-, second-, and third-parity Holstein cows from 484 farms. Data were collected from 2001 through 2007 and merged with meteorological data from 35 weather stations. A linear model (M1) was used to estimate the effects of the temperature-humidity index (THI) on production traits. Least squares means from M1 were used to detect the THI thresholds for milk production in all parities by using a 2-phase linear regression procedure (M2). A multiple-trait repeatability test-model (M3) was used to estimate variance components for all traits and a dummy regression variable (t) was defined to estimate the production decline caused by heat stress. Additionally, the estimated variance components and M3 were used to estimate traditional and heat-tolerance breeding values (estimated breeding values, EBV) for milk yield and protein percentages at parity 1. An analysis of data (M2) indicated that the daily THI at which milk production started to decline for the 3 parities and traits ranged from 65 to 76. These THI values can be achieved with different temperature/humidity combinations with a range of temperatures from 21 to 36°C and relative humidity values from 5 to 95%. The highest negative effect of THI was observed 4 d before test day over the 3 parities for all traits. The negative effect of THI on production traits indicates that first-parity cows are less sensitive to heat stress than multiparous cows. Over the parities, the general additive genetic variance decreased for protein content and increased for milk yield and fat and protein yield. Additive genetic variance for heat tolerance showed an increase from the first to third parity for milk, protein, and fat yield, and for protein percentage. Genetic correlations between general and heat stress effects were all unfavorable (from -0.24 to -0.56). Three EBV per trait were calculated for each cow and bull (traditional EBV, traditional EBV estimated with the inclusion of THI covariate effect, and heat tolerance EBV) and the rankings of EBV for 283 bulls born after 1985 with at least 50 daughters were compared. When THI was included in the model, the ranking for 17 and 32 bulls changed for milk yield and protein percentage, respectively. The heat tolerance genetic component is not negligible, suggesting that heat tolerance selection should be included in the selection objectives. |
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1525-3198 (Electronic) 0022-0302 (Linking) |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4617 |
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Banse, M.; Brouwer, F.; Palatnik, R.R.; Sinabell, F. |
| Title |
The Economics of European Agriculture under Conditions of Climate Change (Editorial) |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
Publication |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
German Journal of Agricultural Economics |
| Volume |
63 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
131-132 |
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This Special Issue on “The Economics of European Agriculture under Conditions of Climate Change” brings together a selection of papers that contribute to the understanding of recent developments related to agriculture and climate change in four European coun- tries. The focus of the Special Issue is on quantitative modeling and empirical analyses. The papers presented here not only cover the heterogeneity of agriculture in Europe with case studies from the Mediterranean (Italy), central (Austria) and north-western Europe (Ireland and Scotland) but also give insights into the diversity of quantitative modeling approaches in agriculture. |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4763 |
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Baum, Z. |
| Title |
The Economic Impact of Water Scarcity Under Diverse Water Qualities and Desalination Policies: The Case of Israel |
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2014 |
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TradeM |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, Hurdalsjøen, Norway, 2014-11-25 to 2014-11-27 |
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2302 |
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