| Records |
| Author |
Sanna, M.; Acutis, M.; Bellocchi, G. |
| Title |
Interrelationship between evaluation metrics to assess agro-ecological models |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Sp3-5 |
Keywords  |
|
| Abstract |
When evaluating the performances of simulation models, the perception of the quality of the outputs may depend on the statistics used to compare simulated and observed data. In order to have a comprehensive understanding of model performance, the use of a variety of metrics is generally advocated. However, since they may be correlated, the use of two or more metrics may convey the same information, leading to redundancy. This study intends to investigate the interrelationship between evaluation metrics, with the aim of identifying the most useful set of indicators, for assessing simulation performance. Our focus is on agro-ecological modelling. Twenty-three performance indicators were selected to compare simulated and observed data of four agronomic and meteorological variables: above-ground biomass, leaf area index, hourly air relative humidity and daily solar radiation. Indicators were calculated on large data sets, collected to effectively apply correlation analysis techniques. For each variable, the interrelationship between each pair of indicators was evaluated, by computing the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. A definition of “stable correlation” was proposed, based on the test of heterogeneity, allowing to assess whether two or more correlation coefficients are equal. An optimal subset of indicators was identified, striking a balance between number of indicators, amount of provided information and information redundancy. They are: Index of Agreement, Squared Bias, Root Mean Squared Relative Error, Pattern Index, Persistence Model Efficiency and Spearman’s Correlation Coefficient. The present study was carried out in the context of CropM-LiveM cross-cutting activities of MACSUR knowledge hub. No Label |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2222 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Rusu, T. |
| Title |
Impact of Climate Change on Crop Land and Technological Recommendations for the Main Crops in Transylvanian Plain, Romania |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Sp3-4 |
| Keywords |
|
| Abstract |
The Transylvanian Plain (TP) is an important agricultural production area of Romania that is included among the areas with the lowest potential of adapting to climate changes in Europe. Thermal and hydric regime monitoring is necessary to identify and implement measures of adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Soil moisture and temperature regimes were evaluated using a set of 20 data logging stations positioned throughout the plain. Each station stores electronic data regarding ground temperature at 3 depths (10, 30, 50 cm), humidity at a depth of 10 cm, air temperature (at 1 m) and precipitation. For agricultural crops, the periods of drought and extreme temperatures require specific measures of adaptation to climate changes. During the growing season of crops in the spring (April – October) in the southeastern, southern, and eastern escarpments, precipitation decreased by 43.8 mm, the air temperature increased by 0.37°C, and the ground temperature increased by 1.91°C at a depth of 10 cm, 2.22°C at a depth of 20 cm and 2.43°C at a depth of 30 cm compared with values recorded for the northern, northwestern or western escarpments. Water requirements were ensured within an optimal time frame for 58.8-62.1% of the spring row crop growth period, with irrigation being necessary to guarantee the optimum production potential. The biologically active temperature recorded in the TP demonstrates the need to renew the division of the crop areas reported in the literature. No Label |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2221 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Lacetera, N.; Vitali, A.; Bernabucci, U.; Nardone, A. |
| Title |
Relationships between temperature humidity index, mortality, milk yield and composition in Italian dairy cows |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Sp3-3 |
| Keywords |
|
| Abstract |
The aim of this presentation is to illustrate the activities performed by the LiveM-Task L1.2. group based at the University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy. Three different pluriannual databases were built to perform retrospective studies aimed at establishing the relationships between temperature humidity index (THI) and parameters of interest for dairy cow farms. The THI combines temperature and humidity in a single value and has been widely used to quantify heat stress in farm animals. The first database was built to assess the relationships between THI and mortality over a 6 yr period (2002-2007); the second one was a 7 yr database (2001-2007) which was built to establish the relationships between THI and milk yield; the last database included THI, milk somatic cell counts, total bacterial counts, fat and protein percentages data collected over a 7 yr period (2003-2009). The analysis of the three databases provided several equations which demonstrated and quantified an increase of mortality, reduction of milk yield and a worsening of milk quality in hot environment. Results of these analyzes authorized speculations about risks for dairy cows and their productivity in a warming planet. Furthermore, the same results are being utilized by economists also working within MACSUR at the University of Tuscia for an integrated study aimed at establishing the economic impact of climate change in the dairy sector. Combining this information with climate change regional scenarios might permit prediction of the impact of global warming and identification of adaptation measures that are appropriate for specific contexts. No Label |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2220 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Barnes, A.; Shrestha, S.; Thomson, S.; Toma, L.; Mathews, K.; Sutherland, L.A. |
| Title |
Comparing visions for CAP reforms post 2015: Farmer intentions and farm bio-economic modelling |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Sp3-2 |
| Keywords |
|
| Abstract |
This paper illustrates the impacts of two of the potential CAP reform post 2015 scenarios using an optimising farm level model and compares results with farmers’ perception about the policy changes, captured in a farmer intentions survey. The model results suggest that beef farms suffer a loss in farm net margins under fully decoupled (up to -21%) as well as under partially decoupled scenario (up to -19%) compared to current historical single farm payments. The model also shows that farm respond by reducing the number of beef animals on farm by up to 5%. However, under a partial decoupled scenario, beef farms increase calf numbers by 15% to benefit from coupled calf payment. A survey of 1,400 beef producers with respect to their intentions toward 2020 was conducted in the Summer of 2013. A set of hypothetical payment scenarios was used to test self-reported response to a number of scenarios related to expanding and extensifying. These were compared with the modelling results and found a range of responses which could, we argue, be used for future calibration and ‘sense-checking’ of results within future modelling strategies. No Label |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2219 |
| Permanent link to this record |
| |
|
| |
| Author |
Özkan, á¹¢.; Bonesmo, H.; Østerås, O.; Harstad, O.M. |
| Title |
Effect of Increased Somatic Cell Count and Replacement Rate on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Norwegian Dairy Herds |
Type |
Report |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
|
| Volume |
3 |
Issue |
|
Pages |
Sp3-1 |
| Keywords |
|
| Abstract |
Dairy sector contributes around 4% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, of which 2/3 and 1/3 are attributed to milk and meat production, respectively. The main GHGs released from dairy farms are methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide. The increased trend in emissions has stimulated research evaluating alternative mitigation options. Much of the work to date has focused on animal breeding, dietary factors and rumen manipulation. There have been little studies assessing the impact of secondary factors such as animal health on emissions at farm level. Production losses associated with udder health are significant. Somatic cell count (SCC) is an indicator on udder health. In Norway, around 45, 60 and 70% of cows in a dairy herd at first, second and third lactation are expected to have SCC of 50,000 cells/ml and above. Another indirect factor is replacement rate. Increasing the replacement rate due to health disorders, infertility and reduced milk yield is likely to increase the total farm emissions if the milking heifer replacements are kept in the herd.In this study, the impact of elevated SCC (200,000 cells/ml and above) and replacement rate on farm GHG emissions was evaluated. HolosNor, a farm scale model adapting IPCC methodology was used to estimate net farm GHG emissions. Preliminary results indicate an increasing trend in emissions (per kg milk and meat) as the SCC increases. Results suggest that animal health should be considered as an indirect mitigation strategy; however, further studies are required to enable comparisons of different farming systems. No Label |
| Address |
|
| Corporate Author |
|
Thesis |
|
| Publisher |
|
Place of Publication |
|
Editor |
|
| Language |
|
Summary Language |
|
Original Title |
|
| Series Editor |
|
Series Title |
|
Abbreviated Series Title |
|
| Series Volume |
|
Series Issue |
|
Edition |
|
| ISSN |
|
ISBN |
|
Medium |
|
| Area |
|
Expedition |
|
Conference |
|
| Notes |
|
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
2218 |
| Permanent link to this record |
