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Author |
Leclère, D.; Jayet, P.-A.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, N. |
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Title |
Farm-level Autonomous Adaptation of European Agricultural Supply to Climate Change |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
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87 |
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1-14 |
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Keywords |
climate change; agriculture; europe; residual impact; autonomous adaptation; water use efficiency; modeling; land-use; integrated assessment; future scenarios; change impacts; model; vulnerability; performance; emissions; nitrogen; lessons |
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Abstract |
The impact of climate change on European agriculture is subject to a significant uncertainty, which reflects the intertwined nature of agriculture. This issue involves a large number of processes, ranging from field to global scales, which have not been fully integrated yet. In this study, we intend to help bridging this gap by quantifying the effect of farm-scale autonomous adaptations in response to changes in climate. To do so, we use a modelling framework coupling the STICS generic crop model to the AROPAj microeconomic model of European agricultural supply. This study provides a first estimate of the role of such adaptations, consistent at the European scale while detailed across European regions. Farm-scale autonomous adaptations significantly alter the impact of climate change over Europe, by widely alleviating negative impacts on crop yields and gross margins. They significantly increase European production levels. However, they also have an important and heterogeneous impact on irrigation water withdrawals, which exacerbate the differences in ambient atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations among climate change scenarios. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0921-8009 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4606 |
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Author |
Jayet, P.; Petsakos, A. |
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Evaluating the efficiency of a uniform N-input tax under different policy scenarios at different scales |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Assessment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Modelling & Assessment |
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18 |
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1 |
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57-72 |
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Bioeconomic model; Mathematical; programming; Nitrogen response curves; Nitrate emissions; Nitrogen tax |
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Nitrate pollution from agriculture is an important environmental externality, caused by the excessive use of fertilizers. The internalization of this problem, via a tax on mineral nitrogen, could lead to a second best solution, reducing nitrate emissions. Several authors suggest that a reduction in agricultural support could produce similar results. In this paper, we examine the effects of different levels of a uniformly implemented nitrogen tax in France under two policy scenarios, corresponding to post Agenda 2000 and 2003 Luxembourg reforms of European Union ’ s Common Agricultural Policy, in order to reveal the synergies and conflicts between the tax and the policy scenarios in terms of nitrate emissions abatement. The analysis is performed at different geographical scales, from the national to the regional and is based on a bioeconomic approach that involves the coupling of the economic model AROPAj with the crop model STICS. Results show that the efficiency of the N-tax varies according to the geographical scale of the analysis and the type of farming. Furthermore, we prove that a uniform implementation may lead to perverse effects that should always be taken into account when introducing second-best instruments. |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4605 |
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Humblot, P.; Jayet, P.A.; Clerino, P.; Leconte-Demarsy, D.; Szopa, S.; Castell, J.F. |
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Title |
Assessment of ozone impacts on farming systems: a bio-economic modeling approach applied to the widely diverse French case |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
Publication |
Ecological Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecol. Econ. |
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85 |
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50-58 |
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ozone; bio-economic modeling; agricultural production; land use; greenhouse gas; carbon sequestration; abatement costs; climate-change; crops; agriculture; eu; emissions; benefits; level |
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As a result of anthropogenic activities, ozone is produced in the surface atmosphere, causing direct damage to plants and reducing crop yields. By combining a biophysical crop model with an economic supply model we were able to predict and quantify this effect at a fine spatial resolution. We applied our approach to the very varied French case and showed that ozone has significant productivity and land-use effects. A comparison of moderate and high ozone scenarios for 2030 shows that wheat production may decrease by more than 30% and barley production may increase by more than 14% as surface ozone concentration increases. These variations are due to the direct effect of ozone on yields as well as to modifications in land use caused by a shift toward more ozone-resistant crops: our study predicts a 16% increase in the barley-growing area and an equal decrease in the wheat-growing area. Moreover, mean agricultural gross margin losses can go as high as 2.5% depending on the ozone scenario, and can reach 7% in some particularly affected regions. A rise in ozone concentration was also associated with a reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions of about 2%, as a result of decreased use of nitrogen fertilizers. One noteworthy result was that major impacts, including changes in land use, do not necessarily occur in ozone high concentration zones, and may strongly depend on farm systems and their adaptation capability. Our study suggests that policy makers should view ozone pollution as a major potential threat to agricultural yields. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0921-8009 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4604 |
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Himanen, S.J.; Ketoja, E.; Hakala, K.; Rötter, R.P.; Salo, T.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Cultivar diversity has great potential to increase yield for feed barley |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Agronomy for Sustainable Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agron. Sust. Developm. |
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33 |
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3 |
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519-530 |
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Crop cultivar; Diversity; Environmental responses; Regional yields; Yield security |
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This study shows an average yield increase of 415–1,338 kg ha−1 per unit increase of the Shannon diversity index for feed barley cultivar use. There is a global quest to increase food production sustainably. Therefore, judicious farmer choices such as selection of crop cultivars are increasingly important. Cultivar diversity is limited and, as a consequence, corresponding crop yields are highly impacted by local weather variations and global climate change. Actually, there is little knowledge on the relationships between yields of regional crops and cultivar diversity, that is evenness and richness in cultivar use. Here, we hypothesized that higher cultivar diversity is related to higher regional yield. We also assumed that the diversity-yield relationship depends on weather during the growing season. Our data were based on farm yield surveys of feed and malting barley, Hordeum vulgare L.; spring wheat, Triticum aestivum L.; and spring turnip rape, Brassica rapa L. ssp. oleifera, from 1998 to 2009, representing about 4,500–5,500 farms annually. We modeled the relationships between regional yields and Shannon diversity indices in high-yielding (south-west) and low-yielding (central-east) regions of Finland using linear mixed models. Our results show that an increase of Shannon diversity index increases yield of feed barley. Feed barley had also the greatest cultivar diversity. In contrast, an average yield decrease of 1,052 kg ha−1 per unit increase in Shannon index was found for spring rape in 2006 and 2008. Our findings show that cultivar diversification has potential to raise mean regional yield of feed barley. Increasing cultivar diversity thus offers a novel, sustainability-favoring means to promote higher yields. |
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1774-0746 1773-0155 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4603 |
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Helming, K.; Diehl, K.; Geneletti, D.; Wiggering, H. |
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Title |
Mainstreaming ecosystem services in European policy impact assessment |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
Publication |
Environmental Impact Assessment Review |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Impact Assessment Review |
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40 |
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82-87 |
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Ex-ante policy impact assessment; Ecosystem services; Science policy interface; DPSIR; EIA; seasonal forecasts |
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The concept of ecosystem services as developed for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is currently the most extensive, international, scientific concept dealing with the interaction between the world’s ecosystems and human well-being. The fundamental asset is seen in the relevancy of the concept at the science–policy interface. Albeit, the mainstreaming of ecosystem services into policy making requires a framework that allows the transition of the scientific concept into the rationale of policy making. We hypothesize that the procedure of policy impact assessment is a suitable venue for this transition. This brings up two questions: 1) where in the process of policy impact assessment can ecosystem services be mainstreamed? 2) How can the impact on ecosystem services properly be accounted for? In this paper we distinguish two groups of policy cases: explicit cases directly addressing ecosystem services, and implicit cases of policies that follow other purposes but may have unintended impacts on ecosystem services as a side effect. The second group covers a wide range of policies for which we set out a framework for mainstreaming of ecosystem services. The framework is exemplary designed for the instrument of ex-ante impact assessment at European policy making level. We reveal that the two concepts of the MA and of the European policy impact assessment are indeed compatible, which makes the integration of the ecosystem service concept possible. We conclude that the linkage of the scientifically validated concept of ecosystem services with the policy concept of impact assessment has the potential of improving the credibility of the latter. |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4602 |
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