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Author Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.; Trnka, M.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Kahiluoto, H. doi  openurl
  Title Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Ecology and Evolution Abbreviated Journal Ecol. Evol.  
  Volume 3 Issue 12 Pages (down) 4197-4214  
  Keywords Adaptation; agroclimatic indicator; barley; crop simulation model; cultivar response diversity  
  Abstract THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 2045-7758 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4576  
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Author Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title An integrated assessment of the impacts of changing climate variability on agricultural productivity and profitability in an irrigated Mediterranean catchment Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Water Resource Management Abbreviated Journal Water Resource Manage.  
  Volume 27 Issue 10 Pages (down) 3607-3622  
  Keywords discrete stochastic programming; climate change variability; adaptation to climate change; net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; water availability; epic crops model; economic impact of climate change; precipitation; uncertainty; region; series; yield; model; scale; wheat; gis  
  Abstract Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0920-4741 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4487  
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Author Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Gerten, D.; Dietrich, J.P.; Bodirsky, B.; Biewald, A.; Popp, A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Blue water scarcity and the economic impacts of future agricultural trade and demand Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Water Resource Research Abbreviated Journal Water Resource Research  
  Volume 49 Issue 6 Pages (down) 3601-3617  
  Keywords water scarcity; land use model; irrigation efficiency; trade liberalization; livestock consumption; modeling; land cover change; water budgets  
  Abstract An increasing demand for agricultural goods affects the pressure on global water resources over the coming decades. In order to quantify these effects, we have developed a new agroeconomic water scarcity indicator, considering explicitly economic processes in the agricultural system. The indicator is based on the water shadow price generated by an economic land use model linked to a global vegetation-hydrology model. Irrigation efficiency is implemented as a dynamic input depending on the level of economic development. We are able to simulate the heterogeneous distribution of water supply and agricultural water demand for irrigation through the spatially explicit representation of agricultural production. This allows in identifying regional hot spots of blue water scarcity and explicit shadow prices for water. We generate scenarios based on moderate policies regarding future trade liberalization and the control of livestock-based consumption, dependent on different population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections. Results indicate increased water scarcity in the future, especially in South Asia, the Middle East, and north Africa. In general, water shadow prices decrease with increasing liberalization, foremost in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. Policies to reduce livestock consumption in developed countries not only lower the domestic pressure on water but also alleviate water scarcity to a large extent in developing countries. It is shown that one of the two policy options would be insufficient for most regions to retain water scarcity in 2045 on levels comparable to 2005.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0043-1397 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes TradeM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4502  
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Author Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Müller, C.; Frieler, K.; Konzmann, M.; Gerten, D.; Glotter, M.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Best, N.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B.M.; Folberth, C.; Foster, I.; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Olin, S.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Satoh, Y.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Abbreviated Journal Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A.  
  Volume 111 Issue 9 Pages (down) 3239-3244  
  Keywords Agricultural Irrigation/economics/*methods; Agriculture/economics/*methods; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Forecasting; *Models, Theoretical; Water Supply/*statistics & numerical data; adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty  
  Abstract We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0027-8424 1091-6490 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4790  
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Author Conradt, T.; Wechsung, F.; Bronstert, A. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Three perceptions of the evapotranspiration landscape: comparing spatial patterns from a distributed hydrological model, remotely sensed surface temperatures, and sub-basin water balances Type Journal Article
  Year 2013 Publication Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Abbreviated Journal Hydrol. Earth System Sci.  
  Volume 17 Issue 7 Pages (down) 2947-2966  
  Keywords senegal river-basin; data assimilation; sensing data; regional evapotranspiration; intercomparison project; environmental-models; oklahoma experiments; solar-radiation; satellite data; scale  
  Abstract A problem encountered by many distributed hydrological modelling studies is high simulation errors at interior gauges when the model is only globally calibrated at the outlet. We simulated river runoff in the Elbe River basin in central Europe (148 268 km(2)) with the semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model). While global parameter optimisation led to Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.9 at the main outlet gauge, comparisons with measured runoff series at interior points revealed large deviations. Therefore, we compared three different strategies for deriving sub-basin evapotranspiration: (1) modelled by SWIM without any spatial calibration, (2) derived from remotely sensed surface temperatures, and (3) calculated from long-term precipitation and discharge data. The results show certain consistencies between the modelled and the remote sensing based evapotranspiration rates, but there seems to be no correlation between remote sensing and water balance based estimations. Subsequent analyses for single sub-basins identify amongst others input weather data and systematic error amplification in inter-gauge discharge calculations as sources of uncertainty. The results encourage careful utilisation of different data sources for enhancements in distributed hydrological modelling.  
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  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1607-7938 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4485  
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