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Elliott, J.; Deryng, D.; Müller, C.; Frieler, K.; Konzmann, M.; Gerten, D.; Glotter, M.; Flörke, M.; Wada, Y.; Best, N.; Eisner, S.; Fekete, B.M.; Folberth, C.; Foster, I.; Gosling, S.N.; Haddeland, I.; Khabarov, N.; Ludwig, F.; Masaki, Y.; Olin, S.; Rosenzweig, C.; Ruane, A.C.; Satoh, Y.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Wisser, D. |
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Title |
Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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111 |
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9 |
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3239-3244 |
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Agricultural Irrigation/economics/*methods; Agriculture/economics/*methods; Carbon Dioxide/analysis; *Climate Change; Computer Simulation; Forecasting; *Models, Theoretical; Water Supply/*statistics & numerical data; adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty |
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We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4790 |
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Persson, T., Höglind M, Gustavsson AM, Halling M, Jauhianen L, Niemeläinen O, Torvaldsson G, Virkajärvi P. |
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Title |
Evaluation of the BASGRA timothy model under Nordic conditions |
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2013 |
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CropM |
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NJF Seminar 455 Nordic Forage Model Applications- predicting forage yield and quality in a variable and changing climate, Forssa, Finland, NJF Report Vol. 9 No. 1 2013, p 4-5., 2013-01-30 to 2013-01-31 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2714 |
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Persson, T.; Höglind, M. |
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Assessment of harvest security of timothy under climate change condition using a set of simple criteria |
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2013 |
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Proceedings of the 22nd International Grasslands Congress, Sydney, Australia, 2013-09-15 to 2013-09-19 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2715 |
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Palatnik, R.R. |
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Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on the Israeli Water Economy via a Linked CGE and Farm-Level Model |
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2013 |
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TradeM |
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MACSUR TradeM workshop: Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security, The Natural Resource and Environmental Research Center (NRERC), University of Haifa, Israel, 2013-03-03 t |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2700 |
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Øygarden, L.; Höglind, M.; Harstad, M.; Hoveid, Ø. |
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Modelling European Agriculture with Climate change for food security |
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2013 |
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Bioforsk conference 2013. Proceedings in; Bioforsk Fokus Vol. 8 Nr 2. 2013. pp 372-374. Editors; Erling Fløistad & Morten Gunther. 390 pp. ISBN 978-82-17-00998-6., 2013-02-06 to 2013-02-07 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2689 |
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