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Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.G.; Fronzek, S. |
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Title |
Projections of climate change impacts on crop production – a global and a Nordic perspective |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
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Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Acta Agriculturae Scandinavica, Section A – Animal Science |
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62 |
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166-180 |
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Keywords |
climate change; impact projection; food production; uncertainty; crop simulation model; food security; integrated assessment; winter-wheat; scenarios; agriculture; adaptation; temperature; models; yield; scale |
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Abstract |
Global climate is changing and food production is very sensitive to weather and climate variations. Global assessments of climate change impacts on food production have been made since the early 1990s, initially with little attention to the uncertainties involved. Although there has been abundant analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on the climate system, uncertainties related to the way climate change projections are scaled down as appropriate for different analyses and in modelling crop responses to climate change, have been neglected. This review paper mainly addresses uncertainties in crop impact modelling and possibilities to reduce them. We specifically aim to (i) show ranges of projected climate change-induced impacts on crop yields, (ii) give recommendations on use of emission scenarios, climate models, regionalization and ensemble crop model simulations for different purposes and (iii) discuss improvements and a few known unknowns’ affecting crop impact projections. |
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0906-4702, 1651-1972 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4591 |
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Bojar, W.; Verburg, R.; Zarski, J.; Brouwer, F. |
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Title |
Circumstances of climatic changes impacts on agricultural production taking attention regional characteristics |
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2012 |
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Studies & Proceedings of Polish Association for Knowledge Management |
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61 |
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29-44 |
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TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2066 |
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Mueller, L.; Schindler, U.; Shepherd, T.G.; Ball, B.C.; Smolentseva, E.; Hu, C.; Hennings, V.; Schad, P.; Rogasik, J.; Zeitz, J.; Schlindwein, S.L.; Behrendt, A.; Helming, K.; Eulenstein, F. |
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Title |
A framework for assessing agricultural soil quality on a global scale |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
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Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science |
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58 |
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sup1 |
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S76-S82 |
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Keywords |
soil quality; indicators; muencheberg soil quality rating |
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This paper provides information about a novel approach of rating agricultural soil quality (SQ) and crop yield potentials consistently over a range of spatial scales. The Muencheberg Soil Quality Rating is an indicator-based straightforward overall assessment method of agricultural SQ. It is a framework covering aspects of soil texture, structure, topography and climate which is based on 8 basic indicators and more than 12 hazard indicators. Ratings are performed by visual methods of soil evaluation. A field manual is then used to provide ratings from tables based on indicator thresholds. Finally, overall rating scores are given, ranging from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) to characterise crop yield potentials. The current approach is valid for grassland and cropland. Field tests in several countries confirmed the practicability and reliability of the method. At field scale, soil structure is a crucial, management induced criterion of agricultural SQ. At the global scale, climate controlled hazard indicators of drought risk and soil thermal regime are crucial for SQ and crop yield potentials. Final rating scores are well correlated with crop yields. We conclude that this system could be evolved for ranking and controlling agricultural SQ on a global scale. |
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0365-0340 |
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CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4589 |
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Toscano, P.; Ranieri, R.; Matese, A.; Vaccari, F.P.; Gioli, B.; Zaldei, A.; Silvestri, M.; Ronchi, C.; La Cava, P.; Porter, J.R.; Miglietta, F. |
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Title |
Durum wheat modeling: The Delphi system, 11 years of observations in Italy |
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Journal Article |
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2012 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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43 |
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108-118 |
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durum wheat; crop modeling; yield forecasting; calibration; scenarios; decision-support-system; crop simulation-model; ceres-wheat; mediterranean environment; winter-wheat; scaling-up; variability; quality; growth; water |
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► Delphi system, based on AFRCWHEAT2 model, for durum wheat forecast. ► AFRCWHEAT2 model was calibrated and validated for three years. ► A scenario approach was applied to simulation of durum wheat yield. ► Operational mode for eleven years in rainfed and water limiting conditions. ► Accurate forecast as an useful planning tool. Crop models are frequently used in ecology, agronomy and environmental sciences for simulating crop and environmental variables at a discrete time step. The aim of this work was to test the predictive capacity of the Delphi system, calibrated and determined for each pedoclimatic factor affecting durum wheat during phenological development. at regional scale. We present an innovative system capable of predicting spatial yield variation and temporal yield fluctuation in long-term analysis, that are the main purposes of regional crop simulation study. The Delphi system was applied to simulate growth and yield of durum wheat in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany). The model was validated and evaluated for three years (1995-1997) at 11 experimental fields and then used in operational mode for eleven years (1999-2009), showing an excellent/good accuracy in predicting grain yield even before maturity for a wide range of growing conditions in the Mediterranean climate, governed by different annual weather patterns. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression and normalized root mean squared error with known crop yield statistics at regional level. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
1161-0301 |
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Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4596 |
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Bennetzen, E.H.; Smith, P.; Soussana, J.-F.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Identity-based estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production: case study from Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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2012 |
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European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
41 |
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66-72 |
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Keywords |
kaya identity; kaya-porter identity; crop production; greenhouse gas emission; energy intensity; mitigation; food system; agriculture; mitigation; energy; opportunities; inventory; europe; policy; land |
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In order to feed the world we need innovative thinking on how to increase agricultural production whilst also mitigating climate change. Agriculture and land-use change are responsible for approximately one-third of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but hold potential for climate change mitigation but are only tangentially included in UNFCCC mitigation policies. To get a full estimate of GHG emissions from agricultural crop production both energy-based emissions and land-based emissions need to be accounted for. Furthermore, the major mitigation potential is likely to be indirect reduction of emissions i.e. reducing emissions per unit of agricultural product rather than the absolute emissions per se. Hence the system productivity must be included in the same analysis. This paper presents the Kaya-Porter identity, derived from the Maya identity, as a new way to calculate GHG emissions from agricultural crop production by deconstructing emissions into five elements; the GHG intensity of the energy used for production (kg CO2-eq./MJ), energy intensity of the production (MJ/kg dry matter), areal productivity (kg dry matter/ha), areal land-based GHG emissions (CO2-eq./ha) and area (ha). These separate elements in the identity can be targeted in emissions reduction and mitigation policies and are useful to analyse past and current trends in emissions and to explore future scenarios. Using the Kaya-Porter identity we have performed a case study on Danish crop production and find emissions to have been reduced by 12% from 1992 to 2008, whilst yields per unit area have remained constant. Both land-based emissions and energy-based emissions have decreased, mainly due to a 41% reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use. The initial identity based analysis for crop production presented here needs to be extended to include livestock to reflect the entire agricultural production and food demand sectors, thereby permitting analysis of the trade-offs between animal and plant food production, human dietary preferences and population and resulting GHG emissions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-07-22 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4581 |
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