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Author |
Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Scenarios of long-term farm structural change for application in climate change impact assessment |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication  |
Landscape Ecology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Landscape Ecol. |
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Volume |
27 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
509-527 |
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Keywords |
agriculture; adaptation; climate change; farm structural change; flevoland; agricultural land-use; future; policy; adaptation; diversification; vulnerability; productivity; consequences; variability; performance |
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Abstract |
Towards 2050, climate change is one of the possible drivers that will change the farming landscape, but market, policy and technological development may be at least equally important. In the last decade, many studies assessed impacts of climate change and specific adaptation strategies. However, adaptation to climate change must be considered in the context of other driving forces that will cause farms of the future to look differently from today’s farms. In this paper we use a historical analysis of the influence of different drivers on farm structure, complemented with literature and stakeholder consultations, to assess future structural change of farms in a region under different plausible futures. As climate change is one of the drivers considered, this study thus puts climate change impact and adaptation into the context of other drivers. The province of Flevoland in the north of The Netherlands was used as case study, with arable farming as the main activity. To account for the heterogeneity of farms and to indicate possible directions of farm structural change, a farm typology was developed. Trends in past developments in farm types were analyzed with data from the Dutch agricultural census. The historical analysis allowed to detect the relative importance of driving forces that contributed to farm structural changes. Simultaneously, scenario assumptions about changes in these driving forces elaborated at global and European levels, were downscaled for Flevoland, to regional and farm type level in order to project impacts of drivers on farm structural change towards 2050. Input from stakeholders was also used to detail the downscaled scenarios and to derive historical and future relationships between drivers and farm structural change. These downscaled scenarios and future driver-farm structural change relationships were used to derive quantitative estimations of farm structural change at regional and farm type level in Flevoland. In addition, stakeholder input was used to also derive images of future farms in Flevoland. The estimated farm structural changes differed substantially between the two scenarios. Our estimations of farm structural change provide a proper context for assessing impacts of and adaptation to climate change in 2050 at crop and farm level. |
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0921-2973 1572-9761 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4477 |
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Author |
Cantelaube, P.; Jayet, P. |
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Title |
Geographical downscaling of outputs provided by an economic farm model calibrated at the regional level |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Land Use Policy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Land Use Policy |
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Volume |
29 |
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Pages |
35-44 |
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Keywords |
Downscaling; Land use; Spatial statistics; Farm-groups; Farm Accountancy Data Network; FADN |
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There is a strong need for accurate and spatially referenced information regarding policy making and model linkage. This need has been expressed by land users, and policy and decision makers in order to estimate both spatially and locally the impacts of European policy (like the Common Agricultural Policy) and/or global changes on farm-groups. These entities are defined according to variables such as altitude, economic size and type of farming (referring to land uses). European farm-groups are provided through the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) as statistical information delivered at regional level. The aim of the study is to map locally farm-group probabilities within each region. The mapping of the farm-groups is done in two steps: (1) by mapping locally the co-variables associated to the farm-groups, i.e. altitude and land uses; (2) by using regional FADN data as a priori knowledge for transforming land uses and altitude information into farm-groups location probabilities within each region. The downscaling process focuses on the land use mapping since land use data are originally point information located every 18 km. Interpolation of land use data is done at 100 m by using co-variables like land cover, altitude, climate and soil data which are continuous layers usually provided at fine resolution. Once the farm-groups are mapped, European Policy and global changes scenarios are run through an agro-economic model for assessing environmental impacts locally. |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4582 |
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Hakala, K.; Jauhiainen, L.; Himanen, S.J.; RÖTter, R.; Salo, T.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Title |
Sensitivity of barley varieties to weather in Finland |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Journal of Agricultural Science |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Agric. Sci. |
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150 |
Issue |
02 |
Pages |
145-160 |
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Keywords |
climate-change; winter-wheat; spring wheat; reproductive growth; high-temperatures; changing climate; crop production; increased CO2; yield; tolerance |
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Global climate change is predicted to shift seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns. An increasing frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves and prolonged droughts is predicted, but there are high levels of uncertainty about the nature of local changes. Crop adaptation will be important in reducing potential damage to agriculture. Crop diversity may enhance resilience to climate variability and changes that are difficult to predict. Therefore, there has to be sufficient diversity within the set of available cultivars in response to weather parameters critical for yield formation. To determine the scale of such ‘weather response diversity’ within barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), an important crop in northern conditions, the yield responses of a wide range of modern and historical varieties were analysed according to a well-defined set of critical agro-meteorological variables. The Finnish long-term dataset of MTT Official Variety Trials was used together with historical weather records of the Finnish Meteorological Institute. The foci of the analysis were firstly to describe the general response of barley to different weather conditions and secondly to reveal the diversity among varieties in the sensitivity to each weather variable. It was established that barley yields were frequently reduced by drought or excessive rain early in the season, by high temperatures at around heading, and by accelerated temperature sum accumulation rates during periods 2 weeks before heading and between heading and yellow ripeness. Low temperatures early in the season increased yields, but frost during the first 4 weeks after sowing had no effect. After canopy establishment, higher precipitation on average resulted in higher yields. In a cultivar-specific analysis, it was found that there were differences in responses to all but three of the studied climatic variables: waterlogging and drought early in the season and temperature sum accumulation rate before heading. The results suggest that low temperatures early in the season, delayed sowing, rain 3-7 weeks after sowing, a temperature change 3-4 weeks after sowing, a high temperature sum accumulation rate from heading to yellow ripeness and high temperatures (25 degrees C) at around heading could mostly be addressed by exploiting the traits found in the range of varieties included in the present study. However, new technology and novel genetic material are needed to enable crops to withstand periods of excessive rain or drought early in the season and to enhance performance under increased temperature sum accumulation rates prior to heading. |
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0021-8596 1469-5146 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4586 |
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Author |
Ventrella, D.; Charfeddine, M.; Giglio, L.; Castellini, M. |
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Title |
Application of DSSAT models for an agronomic adaptation strategy under climate change in Southern of Italy: optimum sowing and transplanting time for winter durum wheat and tomato |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ital. J. Agron. |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
16 |
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Keywords |
DSSAT model; climate change; winter durum wheat; tomato; sowing time; transplanting time |
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Abstract |
Many climate change studies have been carried out in different parts of the world to assess climate change vulnerability and adaptation capacity of agricultural crops for certain environments characterized from climatic, pedological and agronomical point of view. The objective of this study was to analyse the productive response of winter durum wheat and tomato to climate change and sowing/transplanting time in one of the most productive areas of Italy (i.e. Capitanata, Puglia), using CERES-Wheat and CROPGRO cropping system models. Three climatic datasets were used: i) a single dataset (50 km x 50 km) provided by the JRC European centre for the period 1975- 2005; two datasets from HadCM3 for the IPCC A2 GHG scenario for time slices with +2°C (centred over 2030-2060) and +5°C (centred over 2070-2099), respectively. All three datasets were used to generate synthetic climate series using a weather simulator (model LARS-WG). No negative yield effects of climate change were observed for winter durum wheat with delayed sowing (from 330 to 345 DOY) increasing the average dry matter grain yield under forecasted scenarios. Instead, the warmer temperatures were primarily shown to accelerate the phenology, resulting in decreased yield for tomato under the + 5°C future climate scenario. In general, under global temperature increase by 5°C, early transplanting times could minimize the negative impact of climate change on crop productivity but the intensity of this effect was not sufficient to restore the current production levels of tomato cultivated in southern Italy. |
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2016-10-31 |
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2039-6805 1125-4718 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4821 |
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Author |
Sollitto, D.; De Benedetto, D.; Castrignanò, A.; Crescimanno, G.; Provenzano, G.; Ventrella, D. |
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Title |
Spatial data fusion and analysis for soil characterization: a case study in a coastal basin of south-western Sicily (southern Italy) |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Italian Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ital. J. Agron. |
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Volume |
7 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
4 |
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Keywords |
salinization risk; soil retention curve; geostatistics; factor Kriging; intrinsic random funciton |
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Salinization is one of the most serious problems confronting sustainable agriculture in semi-arid and arid regions. Accurate mapping of soil salinization and the associated risk represent a fundamental step in planning agricultural and remediation activities. Geostatistical analysis is very useful for soil quality assessment because it makes it possible to determine the spatial relationships between selected variables and to produce synthetic maps of spatial variation. The main objective of this paper was to map the soil salinization risk in the Delia-Nivolelli alluvial basin (south-western Sicily, southern Italy), using multivariate geostatistical techniques and a set of topographical, physical and soil hydraulic properties. Elevation data were collected from existing topographic maps and analysed preliminarily to improve the estimate precision of sparsely sampled primary variables. For interpolation multi-collocated cokriging was applied to the dataset, including textural and hydraulic properties and electrical conductivity measurements carried out on 128 collected soil samples, using elevation data as auxiliary variable. Spatial dependence among elevation and physical soil properties was explored with factorial kriging analysis (FKA) that could isolate and display the sources of variation acting at different spatial scales. FKA isolated significant regionalised factors which give a concise description of the complex soil physical variability at the different selected spatial scales. These factors mapped, allowed the delineation of zones at different salinisation risk to be managed separately to control and prevent salinization risk. The proposed methodology could be a valid support for land use and soil remediation planning at regional scale. |
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2039-6805 1125-4718 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4595 |
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