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Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. |
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Communication strategy, including design of tools for more effective communication of uncertainty |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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D-C4.1.4 |
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Communication is the key link between the generation of information by MACSUR about the uncertainty of climate change impacts on future food security and how information is used by decision makers. It is therefore important to make available the common tools for reporting uncertainty, with a discussion of the advantages or difficulties of each. That is the purpose of this report. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2099 |
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Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. |
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Standardised methods and protocols based on current best practices to conduct sensitivity analysis |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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D-C4.2.1 |
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The purpose of this report is to propose a general procedure for sensitivity analysis when used to evaluate system sensitivity to climate change, including uncertainty information. While sensitivity analysis has been largely used to evaluate how uncertainties in inputs or parameters propagate through the model and manifest themselves in uncertainties in model outputs, there is much less experience with sensitivity analysis as a tool for studying how sensitive a system is to changes in inputs. This report should help make clear the differences between these two uses of sensitivity analysis, and provide guidance as to the procedure for using sensitivity analysis for evaluating system sensitivity to climate change. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2100 |
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Wallach, D.; Rivington, M. |
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Title |
Identification and quantification of differences between models |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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D-C4.2.2 |
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A major goal of crop model inter-comparison is model improvement, and an important intermediate step toward that goal is understanding in some detail how models differ, and the consequences of those differences. This report is intended as a first attempt at describing possible techniques for relating differences between model outputs to specific aspects of the models. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2101 |
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Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. |
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Title |
Quantified Evidence of Error Propagation |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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D-C4.2.3 |
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Error propagation within models is an issue that requires a structured approach involving the testing of individual equations and evaluation of the consequences of error creation from imperfect equation and model structure on estimates of interest made by a model. This report briefly covers some of the key issues in error propagation and sets out several concepts, across a range of complexity, that may be used to organise an investigation into error propagation. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2102 |
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Rivington, M.; Wallach, D. |
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Title |
Information to support input data quality and model improvement |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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D-C4.2.4 |
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Data quality is a key factor in determining the quality of model estimates and hence a models’ overall utility. Good models run with poor quality explanatory variables and parameters will produce meaningless estimates. Many models are now well developed and have been shown to perform well where and when good quality data is available. Hence a major limitation now to further use of models in new locations and applications is likely to be the availability of good quality data. Improvements in the quality of data may be seen as the starting point of further model improvement, in that better data itself will lead to more accurate model estimates (i.e. through better calibration), and it will facilitate reduction of model residual error by enabling refinements to model equations. This report sets out why data quality is important as well as the basis for additional investment in improving data quality. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2103 |
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