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Author Salamon, P.; Banse, M.; Köchy, M.
Title MACSUR: Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Hub
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Area Expedition Conference 23rd World Outlook Conference, Seville, Spain, 2014-05-12 to 2014-05-13
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2782
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Author von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Cai, Y.; Calvin, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; Nelson, G.C.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; van Meijl, H.
Title Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Agricultural Economics Abbreviated Journal Agric. Econ.
Volume 45 Issue 1 Pages 3-3
Keywords Computable general equilibrium; Partial equilibrium; Meta-analysis; Socioeconomic pathway; Climate change; Bioenergy; Land use; Model; intercomparison; land-use change; food demand; crop productivity; climate-change; future
Abstract Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of real world commodity prices differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between -0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.
Address 2016-10-31
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Language English Summary Language Original Title (up)
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ISSN 0169-5150 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4822
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Author Sandars, L.; Audsley, E.
Title Optimal Land-use Future Scenarios Nordic Area Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords Trade M
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Area Expedition Conference TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, Hurdalsjøen, Norway, 2014-11-25 to 2014-11-27
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2785
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Author Sandhu, H.; Porter, J.R.; Wratten, S.
Title Experimental assessment of ecosystem services in agriculture Type Book Chapter
Year 2013 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages 122-135
Keywords CropM;
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Publisher Place of Publication Editor Wratten, S.; Sandhu, H.; Cullen, R.; Costanza, R.
Language Summary Language Original Title (up)
Series Editor Series Title Ecosystem Services in Agricultural and Urban Landscapes Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2786
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Author Sándor, R.; Ma, S.; Acutis, M.; Barcza, Z.; Ben, T., H.; Doro, L.; Hidy, D.; Köchy, M.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Minet, J.; Perego, A.; Rolinski, S.; Ruget, F.; Seddaiu, G.; Wu, L.; Bellocchi, G.
Title Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon-water fluxes from Euro-Mediterranean grasslands under climate changes Type Conference Article
Year 2014 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords LiveM
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Area Expedition Conference International Livestock Modelling and Research Colloquium, Bilbao, Spain, 2014-10-14 to 2014-10-16
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2788
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