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Author von Lampe, M.; Willenbockel, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Cai, Y.; Calvin, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; Nelson, G.C.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; van Meijl, H.
Title Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison Type Journal Article
Year 2014 Publication Agricultural Economics Abbreviated Journal Agric. Econ.
Volume 45 Issue 1 Pages 3-3
Keywords Computable general equilibrium; Partial equilibrium; Meta-analysis; Socioeconomic pathway; Climate change; Bioenergy; Land use; Model; intercomparison; land-use change; food demand; crop productivity; climate-change; future
Abstract Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of real world commodity prices differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between -0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro-economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross-fertilize analyses at different scales.
Address 2016-10-31
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 0169-5150 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference (up)
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4822
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Author Sandhu, H.; Porter, J.R.; Wratten, S.
Title Experimental assessment of ecosystem services in agriculture Type Book Chapter
Year 2013 Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages 122-135
Keywords CropM;
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor Wratten, S.; Sandhu, H.; Cullen, R.; Costanza, R.
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Ecosystem Services in Agricultural and Urban Landscapes Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference (up)
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2786
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Author Sanna, M.; Bellocchi, G.; Fumagalli, M.; Acutis, M.
Title Interrelationship and optimal choice of indicators to evaluate performance of agrometeorological models Type Manuscript
Year Publication Abbreviated Journal
Volume Issue Pages
Keywords CropM; LiveM
Abstract
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference (up)
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 2790
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Author Sinabell, F.
Title Adaptation to climate change in the European agriculture: A new tool for explicit cost accounting Type Report
Year 2016 Publication FACCE MACSUR Reports Abbreviated Journal
Volume 9 C6 - Issue Pages Sp9-10
Keywords
Abstract farm structure in Austria and level of educationchallenges of more volatile markets / more uncertain yieldsmore uncertainty about revenues and costsspecialisation and liquidity problems – not alleviated by EU direct paymentspolitical measures: late, uncertain, no legal title, wrong incentivestax credits – not relevant in Austria for most farmsprice hedging instruments steep learning curve and intransparent marketsmost frequently used: service of buying co-operatives control of accumulation risksdetails of contract are attractive for farmerse.g. monthly benefits for milk producersbenefits at the time of sale for pig, piglet, grain producerscombination with production risk insurance with discountsgovernment support during introduction period / as a new policy instrumentmarketing and sales: wholesale buyers / dairies / producer organisations offer margin insurance as a service
Address
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN ISBN Medium
Area Expedition Conference (up)
Notes Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4860
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Author Lehtonen, H.
Title Evaluating adaptation and the production development of Finnish agriculture in climate and global change Type Journal Article
Year 2015 Publication Agricultural and Food Science Abbreviated Journal Agricultural and Food Science
Volume 24 Issue 3 Pages 219-234
Keywords agricultural sector modelling; economic adjustment; global prices; climate change; finnish agriculture; crop production; land-use; challenge; ensembles; Finland; Europe; policy
Abstract Agricultural product prices and policies influence the development of crop yields under climate change through farm level management decisions. On this basis, five main scenarios were specified for agricultural commodity prices and crop yields. An economic agricultural sector model was used in order to assess the impacts of the scenarios on production, land use and farm income in Finland. The results suggest that falling crop yields, if realized due to low prices and restrictive policies, will result in decreasing crop and livestock production and increasing nutrient surplus. Slowly increasing crop yields could stabilise production and increase farm income. Significantly higher crop prices and yields are required, however, for any marked increase in production in Finland. Cereals production would increase relatively more than livestock production, if there were high prices for agricultural products. This is explained by abundant land resources, a high opportunity cost of labour and policies maintaining current dairy and beef production.
Address 2016-07-22
Corporate Author Thesis
Publisher Place of Publication Editor
Language English Summary Language Original Title
Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title
Series Volume Series Issue Edition
ISSN 1459-6067 ISBN Medium Article
Area Expedition Conference (up)
Notes TradeM, ft_macsur Approved no
Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4750
Permanent link to this record