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Bojar, W. |
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MACSUR TradeM Workshop Exploring new ideas for trade and agriculture model integration for assessing the impacts of climate change on food security |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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1 |
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M-T0.3 |
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The first TradeM workshop was held at Haifa University (Israel), 3-5 March 2013. It was a state-of-the-art Workshop ‘Economic Modelling on Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security’. Sixteen papers are presented, following a call for abstracts submitted in December 2012. Presented, reviewed and discussed models, their inputs, outputs and main results of case-study analyses let indicate of how the model can be used to analyze the impacts of climate change on food security, how the model can contribute to, and benefit from other economic and/or crop and livestock models and what input is needed from CropM and LiveM. There were explored ideas for closer integration and linkage between agriculture and economic models and between economic models at different levels, addressing issues of model structure, scale and data processing. Focus was on model comparison, gap analysis, scientific advancements and improvements. We also addressed the key challenges of the economic models (macro- versus micro-economics; uncertainty versus risks; variability and distribution), and identified ways to cope with scaling, uncertainty, risks. The workshop let identify the requirements from CropM and LiveM, find policy questions that MACSUR is going to address, start with the content of the case studies and plan for publication of scientific papers. The sessions were broadcast live via the internet. Twenty-four registered participants and about 65 local visitors attended the workshop.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2260 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
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Application of Markov chains approach for expecting extreme precipitation changes having impact on food supply |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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SP4-3 |
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This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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TradeM International Workshop 2014 »Economics of integrated assessment approaches for agriculture and the food sector«, 25–27 November 2014, Hurdalsjø, Norway |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2193 |
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Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Zarski, J. |
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Title |
Integrated assessment of business crop productivity and profitability for use in food supply forecasting |
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2014 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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3 |
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Sp3-7 |
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Climate change suggests long periods without rainfall will occur in the future quite often. Previous approach on dependence crop-yields from size of rain confirms the existence of a statistically significant relation. We built a model describing the amount of precipitation and taking into account periods of drought, using a mixture of gamma distribution and one point-distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed from rainfall data using the method of maximum likelihood. Long series of days or decades of drought allow to determine the probabilities of adverse developments in agriculture as the basis for forecasting crop yields in the future (years 2030, 2050). Forecasted yields can be used for assessment of productivity and profitability of some selected crops in Kujavian-Pomeranian region. Assumptions and parameters of large-scale spatial economic models will be applied to build up relevant solutions. Calculated with this approach output could be useful to expect decrease in agricultural output in the region. It will enable to shape effective agricultural policy to know how to balance food supply and demand through appropriate managing with stored food raw material and/or import/export policies. Used precipitation-yields dependencies method let verify earlier used methodology through comparison of obtained solutions concerning forecasted yields and closed to it uncertainty analysis.This work was co-financed by NCBiR, Contract no. FACCE JPI/04/2012 – P100 PARTNER No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2224 |
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Author |
Braunmiller, K.; Köchy, M. |
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Grassland datasets |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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1 |
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D-L1.3 |
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In the MACSUR project, there are several grassland models in use that were designed for and adjusted with data from different climatic regions. To be able to run these modelsfor a wide geographical range, there is a need to validate and calibrate them on the same basis.Therefore, a high-quality dataset is needed, which includes a wide range of climatic conditions, management systems and other variables.Through this search 23 grassland related institutes from eleven countries were found and contacted, where 12 of them responded to the request. Nine institutes from cooler (e.g. Finland) and warmer regions (e.g. Israel) are now willing to provide their experimental data. One contributor is even planning to join the project bringing its own grassland model.These new grassland datasets cover in addition to already available ones (Fig. 1) a wide range of climatic regions for a substantiated calibration and validation of the models. Data supplied by the institutes have been checked for internal consistency and cast into a common format. The data have been passed on to WP L2 (Model intercomparison on climate change in relation to livestock and grassland). No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2258 |
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Braunmiller, K.; Köchy, M. |
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Title |
Background information on Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for use in MACSUR case studies |
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2013 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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2 |
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R-H2.1 |
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This document is intended to aid in the development of regional Representative Agricultural Pathways in Europe for use in MACSUR case studies, especially the regional pilot studies. We present overviews of existing characterisations of RCPs, SSPs, SPAs, RAPs and more detailed descriptions of the scenarios and assumptions relevant for MACSUR. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2238 |
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