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Author  |
Semenov, M.A. |
| Title |
Heat tolerance in wheat identified as a key trait for increased yield potential in Europe under climate change |
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| Year |
2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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5 |
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Sp5-60 |
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To deliver food security for the 9 billon population in 2050, a 70% increase in world food supply will be required. Predicted climate change emphasises the need for breeding strategies that delivers both a substantial increase in yield potential and resilience to extreme weather events such as heat waves, late frost or severe drought. Heat stress around sensitive stages of wheat development has been identified as a possible threat to wheat production in Europe. However, no estimates have been made to assess yield losses due to increased frequency and magnitude of heat stress under climate change. Using existing experimental data, we refined the Sirius wheat model and incorporated effects of extreme temperature during flowering and grain filling on accelerated leaf senescence, grain number and grain weight. This allowed us, for the first time, to quantify yield losses resulting from heat stress under climate change. We used Sirius to design wheat ideotypes optimised for CMIP5-based climate scenarios for 2050 at 6 wheat growing areas in Europe. The yield potential for heat-tolerant ideotypes can be substantially increased compared with the current cultivars in the future by selecting optimal combination of wheat traits, e.g. optimal phenology and extended duration of grain filling. However, grain yield of heat-sensitive ideotypes was substantially lower and more variable in Hungary and Spain, because extending grain filling for increased yield potential was in conflict with high temperature episodes during flowering and grain filling. Despite much earlier flowering at these sites, the risk of heat stress affecting yields of heat-sensitive ideotypes remained high. Therefore, heat tolerance in wheat is likely to become a key trait for increased yield potential and yield stability in southern Europe in the future. No Label |
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MACSUR Science Conference 2015 »Integrated Climate Risk Assessment in Agriculture & Food«, 8–9+10 April 2015, Reading, UK |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2175 |
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Semenov, M. |
| Title |
Local-scale climate scenarios based on ensembles of global/regional climate models for regional applications in Europe |
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Report |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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3 |
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D-C4.3.1 |
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Local-scale climate scenarios based on ensembles of global/regional climate models for regional applications in Europe is a deliverable for WP4 ‘Scenario development and impact uncertainty evaluation’. We developed the integration of 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-ENSEMBLES and CMIP3 projects with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to update ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios, for use in impact assessment studies in Europe. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2232 |
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Seddaiu, G.; Ruiu, M.L.; Kipling, R.P. |
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Report on Stakeholder Engagement Methodologies |
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Report |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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4 |
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Pages |
D-L4.2 |
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Stakeholder engagement in research projects can take a number of forms according to the scope of the project and the purpose of the interaction. L4.2. has focused on comparing different approaches to stakeholder engagement in collaborative projects. This report presents a synthesis of the experiences and lessons learnt through the stakeholder engagement activities of LiveM researchers within MACSUR, within an Italian (Oristano) case study, and within the SOLID (Sustainable, Organic and Low Input Dairying) project. An overview of these examples, and some of the lessons drawn from them, can also be found in the MACSUR paper on stakeholder engagement methods being developed by researchers from all three MACSUR themes (Koenig et al. under production). The first part of this report describes the stakeholder engagement strategy within the SOLID project. Stakeholder engagement methods are analysed through observations of activities and using semi-structured interviews with researchers and stakeholders. Two aspects of the SOLID approach are described – the stakeholder panel and the Future Dairying workshop. Transcripts of the workshop and the contribution of the stakeholder panel to the SOLID annual meeting in Helsinki are included (Appendices 1 and 2), as a contribution to the analysis of workshop outcomes being undertaken within the SOLID project. As part of a wider suite of stakeholder engagement activities, the SOLID stakeholder panel provided an example of how ongoing oversight of scientific outputs and direction by stakeholders can be effective in identifying weaknesses in approach and communication, and in suggesting relevant and effective directions for research activities. The stakeholder workshop demonstrated a useful structure for the exploration of stakeholder concerns, their view of ideal states and their solutions for reaching them. Low participation levels demonstrated the need to understand the motivations that drive stakeholders to engage in such projects, and highlighted the value of developing long-term relationships between stakeholders and researchers that allow scientific research to become an accepted part of practical problem-solving. The second part of the report describes stakeholder engagement activities carried out in the context of one of the MACSUR regional pilot studies (Oristanese case study in Sardinia, Italy). The Oristanese case study demonstrates the potentialities and constraints of participatory methodologies in relation to the different categories of stakeholder involved. It highlights the importance of creating new spaces for dialogue between farmers, researchers and policy makers in order to promote the generation of “hybrid knowledge” (Nguyen et al. 2013) for the emergence of more sustainable and longer-lasting strategies to adapt to CC. This would require the promotion of open knowledge generation platforms where multiple stakeholders are encouraged to participate and make their views heard. These approaches are designed in order to overcome the misalignment between scientists’ suggestions and policy implementation. In the third part of the report, the outcomes of a “learning event” held in Sassari (MACSUR mid-term meeting) with decision makers from different EU countries, are discussed. Finally, some reflections are presented on the importance of involving local stakeholders and decision makers in research projects, of sharing views and knowledge between scientists and stakeholders, and on the pros and cons of different methodologies at the different scales of stakeholder engagement, drawing on all three examples of practice. The research approach analysed includes two important components, which are represented by “transdisciplinarity” (to be included in the macro area of “scientific knowledge”) and “local knowledge”, as fundamental elements to fill the Science and Policy Gap. No Label |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2215 |
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Scollan, N.; Bannink, A.; Kipling, R.; Saetnan, E.; Van Middelkoop, J. |
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Livestock and feed production, especially dairy and beef |
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Conference Article |
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2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
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6 |
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Sp6-3 |
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Improving health and welfare is an important adaptation and mitigation strategyDeveloping process based modelling, responsive to adaptationLinks to climate and land use change modelling are essential Livestock systems likely to be hit hardest by climate changeNeed to develop animal health models that respond to adaptation by farmersBringing together direct and indirect impacts of climate change vitalAdaptation and mitigation need to be considered and modelled togetherLinking models across scales is important to support policy decisionsLearning between sectors carries potential for novel solutions and methodological advancesEffective communication of outcomes to stakeholders (how?) No Label |
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Brussels |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2084 |
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Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Kuttner, M.; Schmid, E. |
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Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Impacts at Landscape level: Mostviertel, Austria |
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Conference Article |
| Year |
2015 |
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FACCE MACSUR Reports |
Abbreviated Journal |
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6 |
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SP6-6 |
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ConclusionsIncreasing productivity can increase intensification pressuresThreatened permanent (extensive) grasslands and landscape elements, butsubject to resource constraints, costs and prices andfuture production potential to increase global food supplyFuture RDP and environmental policy design (e.g. WFD) should take changing productivity into accountHeterogeneity matters at farm and regional levelChanging relative competitiveness of farmsFuture research: analyze uncertainties No Label |
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Brussels |
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Climate-change impacts on farming systems in the next decades: Why worry when you have CAP? A FACCE MACSUR workshop for policymakers |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
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2085 |
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