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Author |
Schaap, B.F.; Reidsma, P.; Verhagen, J.; Wolf, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. |
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Title |
Participatory design of farm level adaptation to climate risks in an arable region in The Netherlands |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume  |
48 |
Issue |
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Pages |
30-42 |
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Keywords |
adaptation; climate change; impact; crop production; wheat; onion; potato; sugar beet; crop production; change impacts; agriculture; variability; events; europe; model |
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Abstract |
In the arable farming region Flevoland in The Netherlands climate change, including extreme events and pests and diseases, will likely pose risks to a variety of crops including high value crops such as seed potato, ware potato and seed onion. A well designed adaptation strategy at the farm level can reduce risks for farmers in Flevoland. Currently, most of the impact assessments rely heavily on (modelling) techniques that cannot take into account extreme events and pests and diseases and cannot address all crops, and are thus not suited as input for a comprehensive adaptation strategy at the farm level. To identify major climate risks and impacts and develop an adaptation measure portfolio for the most relevant risks we complemented crop growth modelling with a semi-quantitative and participatory approach, the Agro Climatic Calendar (ACC), A cost-benefit analysis and stakeholder workshops were used to identify robust adaptation measures and design an adaptation strategy for contrasting scenarios in 2050. For Flevoland, potential yields of main crops were projected to increase, but five main climate risks were identified, and these are likely to offset the positive impacts. Optimized adaptation strategies differ per scenario (frequency of occurrence of climate risks) and per farm (difference in economic loss). When impacts are high (in the +2 degrees C and A1 SRES scenario) drip irrigation was identified as the best adaptation measure against the main climate risk heat wave that causes second-growth in seed and ware potato. When impacts are smaller (the +1 degrees C and B2 SRES scenario), other options including no adaptation are more cost-effective. Our study shows that with relatively simple techniques such as the ACC combined with a stakeholder process, adaptation strategies can be designed for whole farming systems. Important benefits of this approach compared to modelling techniques are that all crops can be included, all climate factors can be addressed, and a large range of adaptation measures can be explored. This enhances that the identified adaptation strategies are recognizable and relevant for stakeholders. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4809 |
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Toscano, P.; Ranieri, R.; Matese, A.; Vaccari, F.P.; Gioli, B.; Zaldei, A.; Silvestri, M.; Ronchi, C.; La Cava, P.; Porter, J.R.; Miglietta, F. |
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Title |
Durum wheat modeling: The Delphi system, 11 years of observations in Italy |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
43 |
Issue |
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Pages |
108-118 |
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Keywords |
durum wheat; crop modeling; yield forecasting; calibration; scenarios; decision-support-system; crop simulation-model; ceres-wheat; mediterranean environment; winter-wheat; scaling-up; variability; quality; growth; water |
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Abstract |
► Delphi system, based on AFRCWHEAT2 model, for durum wheat forecast. ► AFRCWHEAT2 model was calibrated and validated for three years. ► A scenario approach was applied to simulation of durum wheat yield. ► Operational mode for eleven years in rainfed and water limiting conditions. ► Accurate forecast as an useful planning tool. Crop models are frequently used in ecology, agronomy and environmental sciences for simulating crop and environmental variables at a discrete time step. The aim of this work was to test the predictive capacity of the Delphi system, calibrated and determined for each pedoclimatic factor affecting durum wheat during phenological development. at regional scale. We present an innovative system capable of predicting spatial yield variation and temporal yield fluctuation in long-term analysis, that are the main purposes of regional crop simulation study. The Delphi system was applied to simulate growth and yield of durum wheat in the major Italian supply basins (Basilicata, Capitanata, Marche, Tuscany). The model was validated and evaluated for three years (1995-1997) at 11 experimental fields and then used in operational mode for eleven years (1999-2009), showing an excellent/good accuracy in predicting grain yield even before maturity for a wide range of growing conditions in the Mediterranean climate, governed by different annual weather patterns. The results were evaluated on the basis of regression and normalized root mean squared error with known crop yield statistics at regional level. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4596 |
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Bennetzen, E.H.; Smith, P.; Soussana, J.-F.; Porter, J.R. |
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Title |
Identity-based estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from crop production: case study from Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
41 |
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66-72 |
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Keywords |
kaya identity; kaya-porter identity; crop production; greenhouse gas emission; energy intensity; mitigation; food system; agriculture; mitigation; energy; opportunities; inventory; europe; policy; land |
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Abstract |
In order to feed the world we need innovative thinking on how to increase agricultural production whilst also mitigating climate change. Agriculture and land-use change are responsible for approximately one-third of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions but hold potential for climate change mitigation but are only tangentially included in UNFCCC mitigation policies. To get a full estimate of GHG emissions from agricultural crop production both energy-based emissions and land-based emissions need to be accounted for. Furthermore, the major mitigation potential is likely to be indirect reduction of emissions i.e. reducing emissions per unit of agricultural product rather than the absolute emissions per se. Hence the system productivity must be included in the same analysis. This paper presents the Kaya-Porter identity, derived from the Maya identity, as a new way to calculate GHG emissions from agricultural crop production by deconstructing emissions into five elements; the GHG intensity of the energy used for production (kg CO2-eq./MJ), energy intensity of the production (MJ/kg dry matter), areal productivity (kg dry matter/ha), areal land-based GHG emissions (CO2-eq./ha) and area (ha). These separate elements in the identity can be targeted in emissions reduction and mitigation policies and are useful to analyse past and current trends in emissions and to explore future scenarios. Using the Kaya-Porter identity we have performed a case study on Danish crop production and find emissions to have been reduced by 12% from 1992 to 2008, whilst yields per unit area have remained constant. Both land-based emissions and energy-based emissions have decreased, mainly due to a 41% reduction in nitrogen fertilizer use. The initial identity based analysis for crop production presented here needs to be extended to include livestock to reflect the entire agricultural production and food demand sectors, thereby permitting analysis of the trade-offs between animal and plant food production, human dietary preferences and population and resulting GHG emissions. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-07-22 |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4581 |
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Author |
De Sanctis, G.; Roggero, P.P.; Seddaiu, G.; Orsini, R.; Porter, C.H.; Jones, J.W. |
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Title |
Long-term no tillage increased soil organic carbon content of rain-fed cereal systems in a Mediterranean area |
Type |
Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
40 |
Issue |
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Pages |
18-27 |
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Keywords |
N fertilization; C dynamics; DSSAT; Wheat; Maize; Weed fallow; sandy loam soil; cropping systems; agricultural systems; climate-change; winter-wheat; sequestration; matter; model; fertilization; dynamics |
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Abstract |
The differential impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) of applying no tillage (NT) compared to conventional tillage (CT, i.e. mouldboard ploughing), along with three rates of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application (0,90 and 180 kg ha(-1) y(-1)), was studied under rain-fed Mediterranean conditions in a long-term experiment based on a durum wheat-maize rotation, in which crop residues were left on the soil (NT) or incorporated (CT). Observed SOC content following 8 and 12 years of continuous treatment application was significantly higher in the top 10 cm of the soil under NT than CT, but it was similar in the 10-40 cm layer. NT grain yields for both maize and durum wheat were below those attained under CT (on average 32% and 14% lower respectively) at a given rate of N fertilizer application. Soil, climate and crop data over 5 years were used to calibrate DSSAT model in order to simulate the impact of the different management practices over a 50-year period. Good agreement was obtained between observed and simulated values for crops grain yield, above-ground biomass and observed SOC values. Results from the simulations showed that under NT the weeds growing during the intercrop fallow period made a significant contribution to the observed SOC increase. When the contribution of the weed fallow was considered, NT significantly increased SOC in the top 40 cm of the soil at an average rate of 0.43, 0.31 and 0.03 t ha(-1) per year, respectively for 180,90 and 0 kg N ha(-1) year(-1), within the simulated 50 years. Under CT, a significant SOC increase was simulated under N180 and a significant decrease when no fertilizer was supplied. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4469 |
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Author |
Bellocchi, G.; Rivington, M.; Matthews, K.; Acutis, M. |
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Title |
Deliberative processes for comprehensive evaluation of agroecological models. A review |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Agronomy for Sustainable Development |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agron. Sust. Developm. |
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35 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
589-605 |
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Keywords |
component-oriented programing; deliberative approach; modeling; model evaluation; multiple metrics; stakeholders; decision-support-systems; environmental-models; performance evaluation; groundwater models; farming systems; climate-change; irene-dll; simulation; validation; integration |
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The use of biophysical models in agroecology has increased in the last few decades for two main reasons: the need to formalize empirical knowledge and the need to disseminate model-based decision support for decision makers (such as farmers, advisors, and policy makers). The first has encouraged the development and use of mathematical models to enhance the efficiency of field research through extrapolation beyond the limits of site, season, and management. The second reflects the increasing need (by scientists, managers, and the public) for simulation experimentation to explore options and consequences, for example, future resource use efficiency (i.e., management in sustainable intensification), impacts of and adaptation to climate change, understanding market and policy responses to shocks initiated at a biophysical level under increasing demand, and limited supply capacity. Production concerns thus dominate most model applications, but there is a notable growing emphasis on environmental, economic, and policy dimensions. Identifying effective methods of assessing model quality and performance has become a challenging but vital imperative, considering the variety of factors influencing model outputs. Understanding the requirements of stakeholders, in respect of model use, logically implies the need for their inclusion in model evaluation methods. We reviewed the use of metrics of model evaluation, with a particular emphasis on the involvement of stakeholders to expand horizons beyond conventional structured, numeric analyses. Two major topics are discussed: (1) the importance of deliberative processes for model evaluation, and (2) the role computer-aided techniques may play to integrate deliberative processes into the evaluation of agroecological models. We point out that (i) the evaluation of agroecological models can be improved through stakeholder follow-up, which is a key for the acceptability of model realizations in practice, (ii) model credibility depends not only on the outcomes of well-structured, numerically based evaluation, but also on less tangible factors that may need to be addressed using complementary deliberative processes, (iii) comprehensive evaluation of simulation models can be achieved by integrating the expectations of stakeholders via a weighting system of preferences and perception, (iv) questionnaire-based surveys can help understand the challenges posed by the deliberative process, and (v) a benefit can be obtained if model evaluation is conceived in a decisional perspective and evaluation techniques are developed at the same pace with which the models themselves are created and improved. Scientific knowledge hubs are also recognized as critical pillars to advance good modeling practice in relation to model evaluation (including access to dedicated software tools), an activity which is frequently neglected in the context of time-limited framework programs. |
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1774-0746 1773-0155 |
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Review |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4551 |
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