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	Author	Shrestha, S.; Hennessy, T.; Abdalla, M.; Forristal, D.; Jones, M.J.
	Title	Determining short term responses of Irish dairy farms under climate change			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	German Journal of Agricultural Economics	Abbreviated Journal	German Journal of Agricultural Economics
	Volume	63	Issue	3	Pages	143-155
	Keywords
	Abstract	This study aimed to determine short term farm responses of Irish dairy farms under climate change. The Irish National Farm Survey data and Irish weather data were the main datasets used in this study. A set of simulation models were used to determine grass yields and field time under a baseline scenario and a future climate scenario. An optimising farm level model which maximises farm net income under limiting farm resources was then run under these scenarios. Changes in farm net incomes under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario were taken as a measure to determine the effect of climate change on farms. Any changes in farm activities under the climate run compared to the baseline run were considered as farm’s responses to maximise farm profits. The results showed that there was a substantial increase in yields of grass (49% to 56%) in all regions. The impact of climate change on farms was different based on the regions. Dairy farms in the Border, Midlands and South East regions suffered whereas dairy farms in other regions generally fared better under the climate change scenario. For a majority of farms, a substitution of concentrate feed with grass based feeds and increasing stocking rate were identified as the most common farm responses. However, farms replaced concentrate feed at varying degree. Dairy farms in the Mid East showed a move towards beef production system where medium dairy farms in the South East regions shifted entire tillage land to grass land. Farms in the South East region also kept animals on grass longer under the climate change scenario compared to the baseline scenario.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	TradeM			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4672
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	Author	Eory, V.; MacLeod, M.; Shrestha, S.; Roberts, D.
	Title	Linking an economic and a life-cycle analysis biophysical model to support agricultural greenhouse gas mitigation policy			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	German Journal of Agricultural Economics	Abbreviated Journal	German Journal of Agricultural Economics
	Volume	63	Issue		Pages	133-142
	Keywords
	Abstract	Greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation is one of the main challenges facing agriculture, exacerbated by the increasing demand for food, in particular for livestock products. Production expansion needs to be accompanied by reductions in the GHG emission intensity of agricultural products, if significant increases in emissions are to be avoided. Suggested farm management changes often have systemic effects on farm, therefore their investigation requires a whole farm approach. At the same time, changes in GHG emissions arising offfarm in food supply chains (pre- or post-farm) can also occur as a consequence of these management changes. A modelling framework that quantifies the whole-farm, life-cycle effects of GHG mitigation measures on emissions and farm finances has been developed. It is demonstrated via a case study of sexed semen on Scottish dairy farms. The results show that using sexed semen on dairy farms might be a costeffective way to reduce emissions from cattle production by increasing the amount of lower emission intensity ‘dairy beef’ produced. It is concluded that a modelling framework combining a GHG life cycle analysis model and an economic model is a useful tool to help designing targeted agri-environmental policies at regional and national levels. It has the flexibility to model a wide variety of farm types, locations and management changes, and the LCA-approach adopted helps to ensure that GHG emission leakage does not occur in the supply chain.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	TradeM			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4670
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	Author	Banse, M.; Brouwer, F.; Palatnik, R.R.; Sinabell, F.
	Title	The Economics of European Agriculture under Conditions of Climate Change (Editorial)			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	German Journal of Agricultural Economics	Abbreviated Journal	German Journal of Agricultural Economics
	Volume	63	Issue	3	Pages	131-132
	Keywords
	Abstract	This Special Issue on “The Economics of European Agriculture under Conditions of Climate Change” brings together a selection of papers that contribute to the understanding of recent developments related to agriculture and climate change in four European coun- tries. The focus of the Special Issue is on quantitative modeling and empirical analyses. The papers presented here not only cover the heterogeneity of agriculture in Europe with case studies from the Mediterranean (Italy), central (Austria) and north-western Europe (Ireland and Scotland) but also give insights into the diversity of quantitative modeling approaches in agriculture.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN		ISBN		Medium	Editorial material
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	TradeM, ft_macsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4763
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	Author	Bojar, W.; Knopik, L.; Żarski, J.; Kuśmierek-Tomaszewska, R.
	Title	Integrated assessment of crop productivity based on the food supply forecasting			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2016	Publication	Agricultural Economics – Czech	Abbreviated Journal	Agricultural Economics – Czech
	Volume	61	Issue	11	Pages	502-510
	Keywords	climate changes; decision-making tools; estimation of parameters; forecasted outputs; gamma distribution; predicting yields; climate-change; emissions scenarios; impacts; potato; yield; growth; policy; scale; water
	Abstract	Climate change scenarios suggest that long periods without rainfall will occur in the future often causing instability of the agricultural products market. The aim of our research was to build a model describing the amount of precipitation and droughts for forecasting crop yields in the future. In this study, we analysed a non-standard mixture of gamma and one point distributions as the model of rainfall. On the basis of the rainfall data, one can estimate parameters of the distribution. Parameter estimators were constructed using a method of maximum likelihood. The obtained rainfall data allow confirming the hypothesis of the adequacy of the proposed rainfall models. Long series of droughts allow one to determine the probabilities of adverse phenomena in agriculture. Based on the model, yields of barley in the years 2030 and 2050 were forecasted which can be used for the assessment of other crops productivity. The results obtained with this approach can be used to predict decreases in agricultural production caused by prospective rainfall shortages. This will enable decision makers to shape effective agricultural policies in order to learn how to balance the food supplies and demands through an appropriate management of stored raw food materials and import/export policies.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	0139-570x	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4644
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	Author	Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M.
	Title	Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison			Type	Journal Article
	Year	2014	Publication	Agricultural Economics	Abbreviated Journal	Agric. Econ.
	Volume	45	Issue	1	Pages	103-116
	Keywords	energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system
	Abstract	Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise.
	Address
	Corporate Author				Thesis
	Publisher		Place of Publication		Editor
	Language	English	Summary Language		Original Title
	Series Editor		Series Title		Abbreviated Series Title
	Series Volume		Series Issue		Edition
	ISSN	0169-5150	ISBN		Medium	Article
	Area		Expedition		Conference
	Notes	CropM, TradeM			Approved	no
	Call Number	MA @ admin @			Serial	4532
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