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Author Van Oijen, M.; Höglind, M. doi  openurl
  Title Toward a Bayesian procedure for using process-based models in plant breeding, with application to ideotype design Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Euphytica Abbreviated Journal Euphytica  
  Volume 207 Issue 3 Pages 627-643  
  Keywords BASGRA; cold tolerance; genotype-environment interaction; plant breeding; process-based modelling; yield stability; grassland productivity; timothy regrowth; climate-change; water-deficit; forest models; late blight; leaf-area; calibration; growth; tolerance  
  Abstract Process-based grassland models (PBMs) simulate growth and development of vegetation over time. The models tend to have a large number of parameters that represent properties of the plants. To simulate different cultivars of the same species, different parameter values are required. Parameter differences may be interpreted as genetic variation for plant traits. Despite this natural connection between PBMs and plant genetics, there are only few examples of successful use of PBMs in plant breeding. Here we present a new procedure by which PBMs can help design ideotypes, i.e. virtual cultivars that optimally combine properties of existing cultivars. Ideotypes constitute selection targets for breeding. The procedure consists of four steps: (1) Bayesian calibration of model parameters using data from cultivar trials, (2) Estimating genetic variation for parameters from the combination of cultivar-specific calibrated parameter distributions, (3) Identifying parameter combinations that meet breeding objectives, (4) Translating model results to practice, i.e. interpreting parameters in terms of practical selection criteria. We show an application of the procedure to timothy (Phleum pratense L.) as grown in different regions of Norway.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 0014-2336 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4820  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Vosough Ahmadi, B.; Shrestha, S.; Thomson, S.G.; Barnes, A.P.; Stott, A.W. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Impacts of greening measures and flat rate regional payments of the Common Agricultural Policy on Scottish beef and sheep farms Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Journal of Agricultural Science Abbreviated Journal J. Agric. Sci.  
  Volume 153 Issue 04 Pages 676-688  
  Keywords CAP reform; models; level; water; Agriculture  
  Abstract The latest Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms could bring substantial changes to Scottish farming communities. Two major components of this reform package, an introduction of environmental measures into the Pillar 1 payments and a move away from historical farm payments towards regionalized area payments, would have a significant effect on altering existing support structures for Scottish farmers, as it would for similar farm types elsewhere in Europe where historic payments are used. An optimizing farm-level model was developed to explore how Scottish beef and sheep farms might be affected by the greening and flat rate payments under the current CAP reforms. Nine different types of beef and sheep farms were identified and detailed biophysical and financial farm-level data for these farm types were used to parameterize the model. Results showed that the greening measures of the CAP did not have much impact on net margins of most of the beef and sheep farm businesses, except for ‘Beef Finisher’ farm types where the net margins decreased by 3%. However, all farm types were better off adopting the greening measures than not qualifying for the greening payments through non-compliance with the measures. The move to regionalized farm payments increased the negative financial impact of greening on most of the farms but it was still substantially lower than the financial sacrifice of not adopting greening measures. Results of maximizing farm net margin, under a hypothetical assumption of excluding farm payments, showed that in most of the mixed (sheep and cattle) and beef suckler cattle farms the optimum stock numbers predicted by the model were lower than actual figures on farm. When the regionalized support payments were allocated to each farm, the proportion of the mixed farms that would increase their stock numbers increased whereas this proportion decreased for beef suckler farms and no impact was predicted in sheep farms. Also under the regionalized support payments, improvements in profitability were found in mixed farms and sheep farms. Some of the specialized beef suckler farms also returned a profit when CAP support was added.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 0021-8596 1469-5146 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes LiveM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4654  
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Author Hlavinka, P.; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Cermák, P.; Pohanková, E.; Orság, M.; Pokorný, E.; Fischer, M.; Brtnický, M.; Žalud, Z. doi  openurl
  Title Modelling of yields and soil nitrogen dynamics for crop rotations by HERMES under different climate and soil conditions in the Czech Republic Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Journal of Agricultural Science Abbreviated Journal J. Agric. Sci.  
  Volume 152 Issue 02 Pages 188-204  
  Keywords winter oilseed rape; spring barley; central-europe; growth; simulation; wheat; adaptation; impact; water; agriculture  
  Abstract The crop growth model HERMES was used to model crop rotation cycles at 12 experimental sites in the Czech Republic. A wide range of crops (spring and winter barley, winter wheat, maize, potatoes, sugar beet, winter rape, oats, alfalfa and grass), cultivated between 1981 and 2009 under various soil and climatic conditions, were included. The model was able to estimate the yields of field crop rotations at a reasonable level, with an index of agreement (IA) ranging from 0.82 to 0.96 for the calibration database (the median coefficient of determination (R-2) was 0.71), while IA for verification varied from 0.62 to 0.93 (median R-2 was 0.78). Grass yields were also estimated at a reasonable level of accuracy. The estimates were less accurate for the above-ground biomass at harvest (the medians for IA were 0.76 and 0.72 for calibration and verification, respectively, and analogous medians of R-2 were 0.50 and 0.49). The soil mineral nitrogen (N) content under the field crops was simulated with good precision, with the IA ranging from 0.49 to 0.74 for calibration and from 0.43 to 0.68 for verification. Generally, the soil mineral N was underestimated, and more accurate results were achieved at locations with intensive fertilization. Simulated yields, soil N, water and organic carbon (C) contents were compared with long-term field measurements at Ne. mc. ice, located within the fertile Moravian lowland. At this station, all of the observed parameters were reproduced with a reasonable level of accuracy. In the case of the organic C content, HERMES reproduced a decrease ranging from c. 85 to 77 tonnes (t)/ha (for the 0-0.3 m soil layer) between the years 1980 and 2007. In spite of its relatively simple approach and restricted input data, HERMES was proven to be robust across various conditions, which is a precondition for its future use for both theoretical and practical purposes.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 0021-8596 1469-5146 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4626  
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Author De Swaef, T.; Bellocchi, G.; Aper, J.; Lootens, P.; Roldan-Ruiz, I. doi  openurl
  Title Use of identifiability analysis in designing phenotyping experiments for modelling forage production and quality Type Journal Article
  Year 2019 Publication Journal of Experimental Botany Abbreviated Journal J. Experim. Bot.  
  Volume 70 Issue 9 Pages 2587-2604  
  Keywords Breeding; grassland modelling; identifiability analysis; perennial; ryegrass; phenotyping; sensitivity analysis; pasture simulation-model; practical identifiability; crop; water; parameters; systems; carbon; uncertainty; sensitivity; emissions  
  Abstract Agricultural systems models are complex and tend to be over-parameterized with respect to observational datasets. Practical identifiability analysis based on local sensitivity analysis has proved effective in investigating identifiable parameter sets in environmental models, but has not been applied to agricultural systems models. Here, we demonstrate that identifiability analysis improves experimental design to ensure independent parameter estimation for yield and quality outputs of a complex grassland model. The Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) was used to demonstrate the effectiveness of practical identifiability analysis in designing experiments and measurement protocols within phe-notyping experiments with perennial ryegrass. Virtual experiments were designed combining three factors: frequency of measurements, duration of the experiment. and location of trials. Our results demonstrate that (i) PaSim provides sufficient detail in terms of simulating biomass yield and quality of perennial ryegrass for use in breeding, (ii) typical breeding trials are insufficient to parameterize all influential parameters, (iii) the frequency of measurements is more important than the number of growing seasons to improve the identifiability of PaSim parameters, and (iv) identifiability analysis provides a sound approach for optimizing the design of multi-location trials. Practical identifiability analysis can play an important role in ensuring proper exploitation of phenotypic data and cost-effective multi-location experimental designs. Considering the growing importance of simulation models, this study supports the design of experiments and measurement protocols in the phenotyping networks that have recently been organized.  
  Address 2020-02-14  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 0022-0957 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes LiveM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 5231  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Heinemann, A.B.; Barrios-Perez, C.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Arango-Londoño, D.; Bonilla-Findji, O.; Medeiros, J.C.; Jarvis, A. doi  openurl
  Title Variation and impact of drought-stress patterns across upland rice target population of environments in Brazil Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Journal of Experimental Botany Abbreviated Journal J. Experim. Bot.  
  Volume 66 Issue 12 Pages 3625-3638  
  Keywords Brazil; Climate; Computer Simulation; Crops, Agricultural/physiology; *Droughts; *Environment; Geography; Oryza/*physiology; Plant Transpiration; *Stress, Physiological; Water; Breeding; Oryza sativa; environment classification; modelling; water deficit.  
  Abstract The upland rice (UR) cropped area in Brazil has decreased in the last decade. Importantly, a portion of this decrease can be attributed to the current UR breeding programme strategy, according to which direct grain yield selection is targeted primarily to the most favourable areas. New strategies for more-efficient crop breeding under non-optimal conditions are needed for Brazil’s UR regions. Such strategies should include a classification of spatio-temporal yield variations in environmental groups, as well as a determination of prevalent drought types and their characteristics (duration, intensity, phenological timing, and physiological effects) within those environmental groups. This study used a process-based crop model to support the Brazilian UR breeding programme in their efforts to adopt a new strategy that accounts for the varying range of environments where UR is currently cultivated. Crop simulations based on a commonly grown cultivar (BRS Primavera) and statistical analyses of simulated yield suggested that the target population of environments can be divided into three groups of environments: a highly favorable environment (HFE, 19% of area), a favorable environment (FE, 44%), and least favourable environment (LFE, 37%). Stress-free conditions dominated the HFE group (69% likelihood) and reproductive stress dominated the LFE group (68% likelihood), whereas reproductive and terminal drought stress were found to be almost equally likely to occur in the FE group. For the best and worst environments, we propose specific adaptation focused on the representative stress, while for the FE, wide adaptation to drought is suggested. ‘Weighted selection’ is also a possible strategy for the FE and LFE environment groups.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN (up) 0022-0957 1460-2431 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4560  
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