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Webber, H.; Gaiser, T.; Oomen, R.; Teixeira, E.; Zhao, G.; Wallach, D.; Zimmermann, A.; Ewert, F. |
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Title |
Uncertainty in future irrigation water demand and risk of crop failure for maize in Europe |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Keywords |
crop model; impact assessment; crop water use; evapotranspiration; irrigation; drought; uncertainty |
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Abstract |
While crop models are widely used to assess the change in crop productivity with climate change, their skill in assessing irrigation water demand or the risk of crop failure in large area impact assessments is relatively unknown. The objective of this study is to investigate which aspects of modeling crop water use (reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0), soil water extraction, soil evaporation, soil water balance and root growth) contributes most to the variability in estimates of maize crop water use and the risk of crop failure, and demonstrate the resulting uncertainty in a climate change impact study for Europe. The SIMPLACE crop modeling framework was used to couple the LINTUL5 crop model in factorial combinations of 2-3 different approaches for simulating the 5 aspects of crop water use, resulting in 51 modeling approaches. Using experiments in France and New Zeland, analysis of total sensitivity revealed that ET0 explained the most variability in both irrigated maize water use and rainfed grain yield levels, with soil evaporation also imporatant in the French experiment. In the European impact study, net irrigation requirement differed by 36% between the Penman and Hargreaves ET0 methods in the baseline period. Average EU grain yields were similar between models, but differences approached 1-2 tonnes in parts of France and Southern Europe. EU wide esimates of crop failure in the historical period ranged between 5.4 years for Priestley-Taylor to every 7.9 years for the Penman ET0 methods. While the uncertainty in absolute values between models was significant, estimates of relative changes were similar between models, confirming the utility of crop models in assessing climate change impacts. If ET0 estimates in crop models can be improved, through the use of appropriate methods, uncertainty in irrigation water demand as well as in yield estimates under drought can be reduced. |
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2016-09-13 |
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Newsletter July |
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CropM |
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CropM; wos; ft=macsur; |
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no |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4778 |
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Author |
Andreoli, V.; Cassardo, C.; Iacona, L.T.; Spanna, F. |
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Title |
Description and Preliminary Simulations with the Italian Vineyard Integrated Numerical Model for Estimating Physiological Values (IVINE) |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agronomy |
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Volume |
9 |
Issue |
2 |
Pages |
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Keywords |
viticulture; crop model; phenology; physiological processes; climate; micrometeorology; microclimate; climate change; water status; balance model; crop; phenology; growth; STICS; implementation; carbon; yield |
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Abstract |
The numerical crop growth model Italian Vineyard Integrated Numerical model for Estimating physiological values (IVINE) was developed in order to evaluate environmental forcing effects on vine growth. The IVINE model simulates vine growth processes with parameterizations, allowing the understanding of plant conditions at a vineyard scale. It requires a set of meteorology data and soil water status as boundary conditions. The primary model outputs are main phenological stages, leaf development, yield, and sugar concentration. The model requires setting some variety information depending on the cultivar: At present, IVINE is optimized for Vitis vinifera L. Nebbiolo, a variety grown mostly in the Piedmont region (northwestern Italy). In order to evaluate the model accuracy, IVINE was validated using experimental observations gathered in Piedmontese vineyards, showing performances similar or slightly better than those of other widely used crop models. The results of a sensitivity analysis performed to highlight the effects of the variations of air temperature and soil water potential input variables on IVINE outputs showed that most phenological stages anticipated with increasing temperatures, while berry sugar content saturated at about 25.5 °Bx. Long-term (60 years, in the period 1950–2009) simulations performed over a Piedmontese subregion showed statistically significant variations of most IVINE output variables, with larger time trend slopes referring to the most recent 30-year period (1980–2009), thus confirming that ongoing climate change started influencing Piedmontese vineyards in 1980. |
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2019-02-21 |
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2073-4395 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5218 |
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Author |
Sándor, R.; Barcza, Z.; Hidy, D.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Ma, S.; Bellocchi, G. |
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Title |
Modelling of grassland fluxes in Europe: evaluation of two biogeochemical models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. |
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215 |
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1-19 |
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Keywords |
carbon-water fluxes; climate change; grasslands; model comparison; net ecosystem exchange; terrestrial carbon balance; pasture simulation-model; climate-change; nitrous-oxide; land-use; co2; photosynthesis; responses; water |
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Two independently developed simulation models – the grassland-specific PaSim and the biome-generic Biome-BGC MuSo (BBGC MuSo) – linking climate, soil, vegetation and management to ecosystem biogeochemical cycles were compared in a simulation of carbon (C) and water fluxes. The results were assessed against eddy-covariance flux data from five observational grassland sites representing a range of conditions in Europe: Grillenburg in Germany, Laqueuille in France with both extensive and intensive management, Monte Bondone in Italy and Oensingen in Switzerland. Model comparison (after calibration) gave substantial agreement, the performances being marginal to acceptable for weekly-aggregated gross primary production and ecosystem respiration (R-2 similar to 0.66 – 0.91), weekly evapotranspiration (R-2 similar to 0.78 – 0.94), soil water content in the topsoil (R-2 similar to 0.1 -0.7) and soil temperature (R-2 similar to 0.88 – 0.96). The bias was limited to the range -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) for C fluxes (-11 to 8 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of BBGC MuSo, and -13 to 9 g C m(-2) week(-1) in case of PaSim) and -4 to 6 mm week for water fluxes (with BBGC MuSo providing somewhat higher estimates than PaSim), but some higher relative root mean square errors indicate low accuracy for prediction, especially for net ecosystem exchange The sensitivity of simulated outputs to changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature and precipitation indicate, with certain agreement between the two models, that C outcomes are dominated by [CO2] and temperature gradients, and are less due to precipitation. ET rates decrease with increasing [CO2] in PaSim (consistent with experimental knowledge), while lack of appropriate stomatal response could be a limit in BBGC MuSo responsiveness. Results of the study indicate that some of the errors might be related to the improper representation of soil water content and soil temperature. Improvement is needed in the model representations of soil processes (especially soil water balance) that strongly influence the biogeochemical cycles of managed and unmanaged grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0167-8809 |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4808 |
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Author |
Orsini, F.; Alnayef, M.; Bona, S.; Maggio, A.; Gianquinto, G. |
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Title |
Low stomatal density and reduced transpiration facilitate strawberry adaptation to salinity |
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Journal Article |
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2012 |
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Environmental and Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental and Experimental Botany |
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81 |
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1-10 |
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Keywords |
stomatal density; leaf gas exchanges; transpiration; salt tolerance; osmotic adjustment; salt-stress tolerance; water-use efficiency; nacl salinity; hydraulic conductivity; irrigation water; dynamic indexes; leaf expansion; abscisic-acid; growth; plants |
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Water and soil salinization are major constraints to agricultural productions because plant adaptation to hyperosmotic environments is generally associated to reduced growth and ultimately yield loss. Understanding the physiological/molecular mechanisms that link adaptation and growth is one of the greatest challenges in plant stress research since it would allow us to better define strategies to improve crop salt tolerance. In this study we attempted to establish a functional link between morphological and physiological traits in strawberry in order to identify margins to “uncouple” plant growth and stress adaptation. Two strawberry cultivars, Elsanta and Elsinore, were grown under 0, 10.20 and 40 mM NaCl. Upon salinization Elsanta plants maintained a larger and more functional leaf area compared to Elsinore plants, which were irreversibly damaged at 40 mM NaCl. The tolerance of Elsanta was correlated with a constitutive reduced transpirational flux due to low stomata! density (173 vs. 234 stomata mm(-2) in Elsanta and Elsinore, respectively), which turned out to be critical to pre-adapt plants to the oncoming stress. The reduced transpiration rate of Elsanta (14.7 g H2O plant(-1) h(-1)) respect to Elsinore (17.7 g H2O plant(-1) h(-1)) most likely delayed the accumulation of toxic ions into the leaves, preserved tissues dehydration and consented to adjust more effectively to the hyperosmotic environment. Although we cannot rule out the contribution of other physiological and molecular mechanisms to the relatively higher tolerance of Elsanta, here we demonstrate that low stomatal density may be beneficial for cultivars prescribed to be used in marginal environments in terms of salinity and/or drought. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0098-8472 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4797 |
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Author |
Graß, R.; Thies, B.; Kersebaum, K.-C.; Wachendorf, M. |
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Title |
Simulating dry matter yield of two cropping systems with the simulation model HERMES to evaluate impact of future climate change |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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70 |
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1-10 |
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Climate change; Double cropping system; Biomass yield; Sowing and; harvesting dates; mean-square error; nitrogen dynamics; wheat production; carbon-dioxide; soil; water; management; sunflower; responses; crops |
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Abstract |
Regionalized model calculations showed increased rainfall and temperatures in winter and less precipitation and higher temperatures in summer due to climate change effects in the future for numerous countries in the northern hemisphere. Furthermore, model simulations predicted enhanced weather variability with an increased risk of yield losses and reduced yield stability. Recently, double cropping systems (DCS) were suggested as an environmental friendly and productive adaptation strategy with increased yield stability. This paper reviews the potential benefit of four DCS (rye (Secale cereale L.) as first crop and maize (Zea mays L.), sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.), sorghum (Sorghum sudanense L. x Sorghum bicolor L.) and sudan grass (S. sudanense L.) as second crops) in comparison with four conventional sole cropping systems (SCS) (maize, sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass) with regard to dry matter (DM) yield and soil water under conditions of climate change. We used the agro-ecosystem model HERMES for simulating these variables until the year 2100. The investigated crops sunflower, sorghum and sudan grass were parameterised first for HERMES achieving a satisfying performance. Results showed always higher DM yields per year of DCS compared with SCS. This was mainly caused by yield increases of the first crop winter rye harvested at the stage of milk ripeness. As a winter hardy crop, rye will benefit from increased precipitation and higher temperatures during winter months as well as from extended growth periods with an earlier onset in spring and an increase of growing days. Furthermore, rye is able to use the increased winter humidity for its spring growth in an efficient way. By contrast, model simulations showed that summer crops will be affected by reduced precipitation and higher temperatures during summer month for periods from 2050 onwards with the consequence of reduced yields. This yield reduction was found for all summer crops both in conventional sole crop and in DCS. Preponed harvesting of first crop winter rye as a consequence of earlier onset of growth period in spring under prospective climatic conditions lead to yield decrease, which could not be equalised by preponed sowing of second crops and extension of their growth period. Hence, total annual yield of both crops together decreased. The modification of sowing and harvesting dates as an adaptation strategy requires further research with the use of more holistic simulation models. To summarize, DCS may provide a promising adaptation strategy to effects of climate change with a substantial stabilisation of crop yields. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4659 |
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