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Author |
Francone, C.; Cassardo, C.; Richiardone, R.; Confalonieri, R. |
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Title |
Sensitivity Analysis and Investigation of the Behaviour of the UTOPIA Land-Surface Process Model: A Case Study for Vineyards in Northern Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Boundary-Layer Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Boundary-Layer Meteorology |
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Volume |
144 |
Issue |
3 |
Pages |
419-430 |
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Keywords |
energy balance; hydrological balance; land-surface model; morris method; vegetation cover; vitis vinifera l.; atmosphere transfer scheme; environmental-models; energy-balance; uncertainty; simulation; canopy |
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We used sensitivity-analysis techniques to investigate the behaviour of the land-surface model UTOPIA while simulating the micrometeorology of a typical northern Italy vineyard (Vitis vinifera L.) under average climatic conditions. Sensitivity-analysis experiments were performed by sampling the vegetation parameter hyperspace using the Morris method and quantifying the parameter relevance across a wide range of soil conditions. This method was used since it proved its suitability for models with high computational time or with a large number of parameters, in a variety of studies performed on different types of biophysical models. The impact of input variability was estimated on reference model variables selected among energy (e.g. net radiation, sensible and latent heat fluxes) and hydrological (e.g. soilmoisture, surface runoff, drainage) budget components. Maximum vegetation cover and maximum leaf area index were ranked as the most relevant parameters, with sensitivity indices exceeding the remaining parameters by about one order of magnitude. Soil variability had a high impact on the relevance of most of the vegetation parameters: coefficients of variation calculated on the sensitivity indices estimated for the different soils often exceeded 100 %. The only exceptions were represented by maximum vegetation cover and maximum leaf area index, which showed a low variability in sensitivity indices while changing soil type, and confirmed their key role in affecting model results. |
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0006-8314 1573-1472 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4470 |
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Jägermeyr, J.; Gerten, D.; Heinke, J.; Schaphoff, S.; Kummu, M.; Lucht, W. |
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Title |
Water savings potentials of irrigation systems: global simulation of processes and linkages |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
Hydrology and Earth System Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Hydrol. Earth System Sci. |
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19 |
Issue |
7 |
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3073-3091 |
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Keywords |
surface-water; vegetation model; climate-change; food demand; fresh-water; efficiency; productivity; groundwater; impacts; requirements |
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Global agricultural production is heavily sustained by irrigation, but irrigation system efficiencies are often surprisingly low. However, our knowledge of irrigation efficiencies is mostly confined to rough indicative estimates for countries or regions that do not account for spatiotemporal heterogeneity due to climate and other biophysical dependencies. To allow for refined estimates of global agricultural water use, and of water saving and water productivity potentials constrained by biophysical processes and also nontrivial downstream effects, we incorporated a process-based representation of the three major irrigation systems (surface, sprinkler, and drip) into a bio- and agrosphere model, LPJmL. Based on this enhanced model we provide a gridded world map of irrigation efficiencies that are calculated in direct linkage to differences in system types, crop types, climatic and hydrologic conditions, and overall crop management. We find pronounced regional patterns in beneficial irrigation efficiency (a refined irrigation efficiency indicator accounting for crop-productive water consumption only), due to differences in these features, with the lowest values (< 30 %) in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa and the highest values (> 60 %) in Europe and North America. We arrive at an estimate of global irrigation water withdrawal of 2469 km(3) (2004-2009 average); irrigation water consumption is calculated to be 1257 km(3), of which 608 km(3) are non-beneficially consumed, i.e., lost through evaporation, interception, and conveyance. Replacing surface systems by sprinkler or drip systems could, on average across the world’s river basins, reduce the non-beneficial consumption at river basin level by 54 and 76 %, respectively, while maintaining the current level of crop yields. Accordingly, crop water productivity would increase by 9 and 15 %, respectively, and by much more in specific regions such as in the Indus basin. This study significantly advances the global quantification of irrigation systems while providing a framework for assessing potential future transitions in these systems. In this paper, presented opportunities associated with irrigation improvements are significant and suggest that they should be considered an important means on the way to sustainable food security. |
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2016-06-01 |
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1607-7938 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4739 |
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Author |
Waha, K.; Müller, C.; Rolinski, S. |
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Title |
Separate and combined effects of temperature and precipitation change on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa for mid- to late-21st century |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Global and Planetary Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global and Planetary Change |
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106 |
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1-12 |
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Keywords |
climate change; wet season; water stress; temperature stress; hierarchical cluster analysis; global vegetation model; climate-change; southern africa; east-africa; part i; food; heat; agriculture; variability; impacts |
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Maize (Zea mays L) is one of the most important food crops and very common in all parts of sub-Saharan Africa. In 2010 53 million tons of maize were produced in sub-Saharan Africa on about one third of the total harvested cropland area (similar to 33 million ha). Our aim is to identify the limiting agroclimatic variable for maize growth and development in sub-Saharan Africa by analyzing the separated and combined effects of temperature and precipitation. Under changing climate, both climate variables are projected to change severely, and their impacts on crop yields are frequently assessed using process-based crop models. However it is often unclear which agroclimatic variable will have the strongest influence on crop growth and development under climate change and previous studies disagree over this question. We create synthetic climate data in order to study the effect of large changes in the length of the wet season and the amount of precipitation during the wet season both separately and in combination with changes in temperature. The dynamic global vegetation model for managed land LPJmL is used to simulate maize yields under current and future climatic conditions for the two 10-year periods 2056-2065 and 2081-2090 for three climate scenarios for the A1b emission scenario but without considering the beneficial CO2 fertilization effect. The importance of temperature and precipitation effects on maize yields varies spatially and we identify four groups of crop yield changes: regions with strong negative effects resulting from climate change (<-33% yield change), regions with moderate (-33% to -10% yield change) or slight negative effects (-10% to +6% yield change), and regions with positive effects arising from climate change mainly in currently temperature-limited high altitudes (>+6% yield change). In the first three groups temperature increases lead to maize yield reductions of 3 to 20%, with the exception of mountainous and thus cooler regions in South and East Africa. A reduction of the wet season precipitation causes decreases in maize yield of at least 30% and prevails over the effect of increased temperatures in southern parts of Mozambique and Zambia, the Sahel and parts of eastern Africa in the two projection periods. This knowledge about the limiting abiotic stress factor in each region will help to prioritize future research needs in modeling of agricultural systems as well as in drought and heat stress breeding programs and to identify adaption options in agricultural development projects. On the other hand the study enhances the understanding of temperature and water stress effects on crop yields in a global vegetation model in order to identify future research and model development needs. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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0921-8181 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4508 |
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Author |
Park, S.K.; Sungmin, O.; Cassardo, C. |
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Title |
Soil temperature response in Korea to a changing climate using a land surface model |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
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Volume |
53 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
457-470 |
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Keywords |
Land surface process; soil temperature; climate change; soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme; University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SNOW COVER; WATER-RESOURCES; SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS; QUANTITATIVE-ANALYSIS; MESOSCALE MODEL; SRES EMISSIONS; FUTURE CLIMATE; CHANGE IMPACTS; SOUTH-AMERICA |
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The land surface processes play an important role in weather and climate systems through its regulation of radiation, heat, water and momentum fluxes. Soil temperature (ST) is one of the most important parameters in the land surface processes; however, there are few extensive measurements of ST with a long time series in the world. According to the CLImatology of Parameters at the Surface (CLIPS) methodology, the output of a trusted Soil-Vegetation- Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) scheme can be utilized instead of observations to investigate the regional climate of interest. In this study, ST in South Korea is estimated in a view of future climate using the output from a trusted SVAT scheme – the University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), which is driven by a regional climate model. Here characteristic changes in ST are analyzed under the IPCC A2 future climate for 2046-2055 and 2091-2100, and are compared with those under the reference climate for 1996-2005. The UTOPIA results were validated using the observed ST in the reference climate, and the model proved to produce reasonable ST in South Korea. The UTOPIA simulations indicate that ST increases due to environmental change, especially in air temperature (AT), in the future climate. The increment of ST is proportional to that of AT except for winter. In wintertime, the ST variations are different from region to region mainly due to variations in snow cover, which keeps ST from significant changes by the climate change. |
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2017-12-21 |
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1976-7633 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5182 |
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Luo, K.; Tao, F.; Deng, X.; Moiwo, J.P. |
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Title |
Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981-2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Hydrological Processes |
Abbreviated Journal |
Hydrol. Process. |
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31 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
90-103 |
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Keywords |
driving factor; potential evaporation; surface runoff; SWAT model; Upper Heihe River Basin; SWAT Hydrologic Model; Pan Evaporation; Vegetation Model; Climate-Change; Water; Trends; Precipitation; Uncertainty; Variability; Generation |
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Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET0 was driven mainly by wind speed. ET0 was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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2018-08-23 |
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0885-6087 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5207 |
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