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Sándor, R.; Ma, S.; Acutis, M.; Barcza, Z.; Ben Touhami, H.; Doro, L.; Hidy, D.; Köchy, M.; Lellei-Kovács, E.; Minet, J.; Perego, A.; Rolinski, S.; Ruget, F.; Seddaiu, G.; Wu, L.; Bellocchi, G. |
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Title |
Uncertainty in simulating biomass yield and carbon–water fluxes from grasslands under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Advances in Animal Biosciences |
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Volume |
6 |
Issue |
01 |
Pages |
49-51 |
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Keywords |
grassland productivity; carbon balance; model simulation; uncertainty; sensitivity |
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English |
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2040-4700 |
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CropM, LiveM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4651 |
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Author |
Pirttioja, N.; Carter, T.R.; Fronzek, S.; Bindi, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Palosuo, T.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Tao, F.; Trnka, M.; Acutis, M.; Asseng, S.; Baranowski, P.; Basso, B.; Bodin, P.; Buis, S.; Cammarano, D.; Deligios, P.; Destain, M.F.; Dumont, B.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; François, L.; Gaiser, T.; Hlavinka, P.; Jacquemin, I.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kollas, C.; Krzyszczak, J.; Lorite, I.J.; Minet, J.; Minguez, M.I.; Montesino-San Martin, M.; Moriondo, M.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; Öztürk, I.; Perego, A.; Rodríguez, A.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Sanna, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Slawinski, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Supit, I.; Waha, K.; Wang, E.; Wu, L.; Zhao, Z.; Rötter, R.P. |
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Title |
Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
87-105 |
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Keywords |
climate; crop model; impact response surface; IRS; sensitivity analysis; wheat; yield; climate-change impacts; uncertainty; 21st-century; projections; simulation; growth; region |
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Abstract |
This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4662 |
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Author |
Dumont, B.; Leemans, V.; Mansouri, M.; Bodson, B.; Destain, J.-P.; Destain, M.-F. |
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Title |
Parameter identification of the STICS crop model, using an accelerated formal MCMC approach |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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Volume |
52 |
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Pages |
121-135 |
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Keywords |
crop model; parameter estimation; bayes; stics; dream; global sensitivity-analysis; simulation-model; nitrogen balances; bayesian-approach; generic model; wheat; prediction; water; optimization; algorithm |
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Abstract |
This study presents a Bayesian approach for the parameters’ identification of the STICS crop model based on the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm. The posterior distributions of nine specific crop parameters of the STICS model were sampled with the aim to improve the growth simulations of a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L) culture. The results obtained with the DREAM algorithm were initially compared to those obtained with a Nelder-Mead Simplex algorithm embedded within the OptimiSTICS package. Then, three types of likelihood functions implemented within the DREAM algorithm were compared, namely the standard least square, the weighted least square, and a transformed likelihood function that makes explicit use of the coefficient of variation (CV). The results showed that the proposed CV likelihood function allowed taking into account both noise on measurements and heteroscedasticity which are regularly encountered in crop modelling. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
1364-8152 |
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CropM |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4520 |
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Author |
Kraus, D.; Weller, S.; Klatt, S.; Haas, E.; Wassmann, R.; Kiese, R.; Butterbach-Bahl, K. |
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Title |
A new LandscapeDNDC biogeochemical module to predict CH4 and N2O emissions from lowland rice and upland cropping systems |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Plant and Soil |
Abbreviated Journal |
Plant Soil |
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Volume |
386 |
Issue |
1-2 |
Pages |
125-149 |
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Keywords |
methane; nitrous oxide; paddy rice; maize; model; nitrous-oxide emissions; process-based model; methane transport capacity; process-oriented model; pnet-n-dndc; forest soils; paddy soils; sensitivity-analysis; residue management; organic-matter |
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Replacing paddy rice by upland systems such as maize cultivation is an on-going trend in SE Asia caused by increasing water scarcity and higher demand for meat. How such land management changes will feedback on soil C and N cycles and soil greenhouse gas emissions is not well understood at present. A new LandscapeDNDC biogeochemical module was developed that allows the effect of land management changes on soil C and N cycle to be simulated. The new module is applied in combination with further modules simulating microclimate and crop growth and evaluated against observations from field experiments. The model simulations agree well with observed dynamics of CH (4) emissions in paddy rice depending on changes in climatic conditions and agricultural management. Magnitude and peak emission periods of N (2) O from maize cultivation are simulated correctly, though there are still deficits in reproducing day-to-day dynamics. These shortcomings are most likely related to simulated soil hydrology and may only be resolved if LandscapeDNDC is coupled to more complex hydrological models. LandscapeDNDC allows for simulation of changing land management practices in SE Asia. The possibility to couple LandscapeDNDC to more complex hydrological models is a feature needed to better understand related effects on soil-atmosphere-hydrosphere interactions. |
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0032-079x |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4530 |
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Author |
Stefańczyk, E.; Sobkowiak, S.; Brylińska, M.; Śliwka, J. |
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Title |
Diversity of Fusarium spp. associated with dry rot of potato tubers in Poland |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
European Journal of Plant Pathology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Eur. J. Plant Pathol. |
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Keywords |
ITS; mycotoxin; pathogenicity; Solanum tuberosum; tef-1α; β-tubulin; sequence data; Trichothecenes; identification; fungus; pathogenicity; temperature; sensitivity; zearalenone; strains; disease |
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Abstract |
Fusarium spp. belong to the division Ascomycota and cause important plant diseases; these fungi may contaminate food products with mycotoxins, endangering human and animal health. Several Fusarium spp. have been associated with potato dry rot. The most frequent and devastating of these species are F. sambucinum, F. solani and F. oxysporum, depending on the geographic location and the season. Samples of potato tubers with dry rot symptoms were collected, and their putative fungal isolates were identified as Fusarium species using partial nucleotide sequences of the internal transcribed spacer, translation elongation factor 1-α and β-tubulin genes. Among 149 isolates, 12 species were identified. F. oxysporum was the most frequent (45 % of the isolates), followed by F. avenaceum (12.1 %), F. solani (10.7 %) and F. sambucinum (7.4 %). Phylogenetic analyses confirmed the species identifications and revealed a high diversity of F. solani and a low diversity of F. oxysporum. Potential producers of zearalenone and trichothecenes were identified within the obtained isolates using PCR markers. Isolates that were pathogenic to potatoes in laboratory tests were found in four species: F. sambucinum, F. avenaceum, F. culmorum, and F. graminearum. The effects of increased temperature and mixed inoculum on the pathogenicities of chosen species were evaluated. This study adds 434 potato-derived Fusarium sequences to the NCBI GenBank database and demonstrates that the list of Fusarium species and mycotoxins present in potato tubers may be richer than previously believed, regardless of whether these species cause dry rot or live as saprophytes. |
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0929-1873 1573-8469 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4721 |
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