| Records |
| Author |
Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Rodriguez, A.; Dosio, A.; Goodess, C.M.; Harpham, C.; Minguez, M.I.; Sanchez, E. |
| Title |
Comparing correction methods of RCM outputs for improving crop impact projections in the Iberian Peninsula for 21st century |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Climatic Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Change |
| Volume |
134 |
Issue |
1-2 |
Pages |
283-297 |
| Keywords |
regional climate model; bias correction; weather generator; circulation model; simulations; temperature; precipitation; ensemble; uncertainty; extremes |
| Abstract |
Assessment of climate change impacts on crops in regions of complex orography such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP) requires climate model output which is able to describe accurately the observed climate. The high resolution of output provided by Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is expected to be a suitable tool to describe regional and local climatic features, although their simulation results may still present biases. For these reasons, we compared several post-processing methods to correct or reduce the biases of RCM simulations from the ENSEMBLES project for the IP. The bias-corrected datasets were also evaluated in terms of their applicability and consequences in improving the results of a crop model to simulate maize growth and development at two IP locations, using this crop as a reference for summer cropping systems in the region. The use of bias-corrected climate runs improved crop phenology and yield simulation overall and reduced the inter-model variability and thus the uncertainty. The number of observational stations underlying each reference observational dataset used to correct the bias affected the correction performance. Although no single technique showed to be the best one, some methods proved to be more adequate for small initial biases, while others were useful when initial biases were so large as to prevent data application for impact studies. An initial evaluation of the climate data, the bias correction/reduction method and the consequences for impact assessment would be needed to design the most robust, reduced uncertainty ensemble for a specific combination of location, crop, and crop management. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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| Language |
English |
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Edition |
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ISSN  |
0165-0009 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4805 |
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| Author |
Calanca, P.; Semenov, M.A. |
| Title |
Local-scale climate scenarios for impact studies and risk assessments: integration of early 21st century ENSEMBLES projections into the ELPIS database |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Theoretical and Applied Climatology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Theor. Appl. Climatol. |
| Volume |
113 |
Issue |
3-4 |
Pages |
445-455 |
| Keywords |
stochastic weather generators; regional climate; lars-wg; daily; precipitation; models; simulation; europe; temperature; variability; heatwaves |
| Abstract |
We present the integration of early 21st century climate projections for Europe based on simulations carried out within the EU-FP6 ENSEMBLES project with the LARS-WG stochastic weather generator. The aim was to upgrade ELPIS, a repository of local-scale climate scenarios for use in impact studies and risk assessments that already included global projections from the CMIP3 ensemble and regional scenarios for Japan. To obtain a more reliable simulation of daily rainfall and extremes, changes in wet and dry series derived from daily ENSEMBLES outputs were taken into account. Kernel average smoothers were used to reduce noise arising from sampling artefacts. Examples of risk analyses based on 25-km climate projections from the ENSEMBLES ensemble of regional climate models illustrate the possibilities offered by the updated version of ELPIS. The results stress the importance of tailored information for local-scale impact assessments at the European level. |
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Thesis |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0177-798x 1434-4483 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ftnotmacsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4484 |
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| Author |
Luo, K.; Tao, F.; Deng, X.; Moiwo, J.P. |
| Title |
Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff in 1981-2010 and the driving factors in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Hydrological Processes |
Abbreviated Journal |
Hydrol. Process. |
| Volume |
31 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
90-103 |
| Keywords |
driving factor; potential evaporation; surface runoff; SWAT model; Upper Heihe River Basin; SWAT Hydrologic Model; Pan Evaporation; Vegetation Model; Climate-Change; Water; Trends; Precipitation; Uncertainty; Variability; Generation |
| Abstract |
Changes in potential evapotranspiration and surface runoff can have profound implications for hydrological processes in arid and semiarid regions. In this study, we investigated the response of hydrological processes to climate change in Upper Heihe River Basin in Northwest China for the period from 1981 to 2010. We used agronomic, climatic and hydrological data to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model for changes in potential evapotranspiration (ET0) and surface runoff and the driving factors in the study area. The results showed that increasing autumn temperature increased snow melt, resulting in increased surface runoff, especially in September and October. The spatial distribution of annual runoff was different from that of seasonal runoff, with the highest runoff in Yeniugou River, followed by Babaohe River and then the tributaries in the northern of the basin. There was no evaporation paradox at annual and seasonal time scales, and annual ET0 was driven mainly by wind speed. ET0 was driven by relative humidity in spring, sunshine hour duration in autumn and both sunshine hour duration and relative humility in summer. Surface runoff was controlled by temperature in spring and winter and by precipitation in summer (flood season). Although surface runoff increased in autumn with increasing temperature, it depended on rainfall in September and on temperature in October and November. Copyright (C) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Address |
2018-08-23 |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0885-6087 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5207 |
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| Author |
Dono, G.; Cortignani, R.; Doro, L.; Giraldo, L.; Ledda, L.; Pasqui, M.; Roggero, P.P. |
| Title |
An integrated assessment of the impacts of changing climate variability on agricultural productivity and profitability in an irrigated Mediterranean catchment |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Water Resource Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
Water Resource Manage. |
| Volume |
27 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
3607-3622 |
| Keywords |
discrete stochastic programming; climate change variability; adaptation to climate change; net evapotranspiration and irrigation requirements; water availability; epic crops model; economic impact of climate change; precipitation; uncertainty; region; series; yield; model; scale; wheat; gis |
| Abstract |
Climate change is likely to have a profound effect on many agricultural variables, although the extent of its influence will vary over the course of the annual farm management cycle. Consequently, the effect of different and interconnected physical, technical and economic factors must be modeled in order to estimate the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity. Such modeling commonly makes use of indicators that summarize the among environmental factors that are considered when farmers plan their activities. This study uses net evapotranspiration (ETN), estimated using EPIC, as a proxy index for the physical factors considered by farmers when managing irrigation. Recent trends suggest that the probability distribution function of ETN may continue to change in the near future due to changes in the irrigation needs of crops. Also, water availability may continue to vary due to changes in the rainfall regime. The impacts of the uncertainties related to these changes on costs are evaluated using a Discrete Stochastic Programming model representing an irrigable Mediterranean area where limited water is supplied from a reservoir. In this context, adaptation to climate change can be best supported by improvements to the collective irrigation systems, rather than by measures aimed at individual farms such as those contained within the rural development policy. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0920-4741 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
TradeM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4487 |
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| Author |
Ferrise, R.; Toscano, P.; Pasqui, M.; Moriondo, M.; Primicerio, J.; Semenov, M.A.; Bindi, M. |
| Title |
Monthly-to-seasonal predictions of durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
| Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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Pages |
7-21 |
| Keywords |
yield predictions; seasonal forecasts; analogue forecasts; stochastic weather generator; empirical forecasting models; durum wheat; crop modelling; mediterranean basin; general-circulation model; scale climate indexes; crop yield; grain-yield; forecasts; simulation; region; precipitation; australia; europe |
| Abstract |
Uncertainty in weather conditions for the forthcoming growing season influences farmers’ decisions, based on their experience of the past climate, regarding the reduction of agricultural risk. Early within-season predictions of grain yield can represent a great opportunity for farmers to improve their management decisions and potentially increase yield and reduce potential risk. This study assessed 3 methods of within-season predictions of durum wheat yield at 10 sites across the Mediterranean Basin. To assess the value of within-season predictions, the model SiriusQuality2 was used to calculate wheat yields over a 9 yr period. Initially, the model was run with observed daily weather to obtain the reference yields. Then, yield predictions were calculated at a monthly time step, starting from 6 mo before harvest, by feeding the model with observed weather from the beginning of the growing season until a specific date and then with synthetic weather constructed using the 3 methods, historical, analogue or empirical, until the end of the growing season. The results showed that it is possible to predict durum wheat yield over the Mediterranean Basin with an accuracy of normalized root means squared error of <20%, from 5 to 6 mo earlier for the historical and empirical methods and 3 mo earlier for the analogue method. Overall, the historical method performed better than the others. Nonetheless, the analogue and empirical methods provided better estimations for low-yielding and high-yielding years, thus indicating great potential to provide more accurate predictions for years that deviate from average conditions. |
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English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0936-577x 1616-1572 |
ISBN |
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Article |
| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4696 |
| Permanent link to this record |
