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Rötter, R.P.; Palosuo, T.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Angulo, C.; Bindi, M.; Ewert, F.; Ferrise, R.; Hlavinka, P.; Moriondo, M.; Nendel, C.; Olesen, J.E.; Patil, R.H.; Ruget, F.; Takác, J.; Trnka, M. |
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Title |
Simulation of spring barley yield in different climatic zones of Northern and Central Europe: A comparison of nine crop models |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2012 |
Publication |
Field Crops Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Field Crops Research |
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Volume |
133 |
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Pages |
23-36 |
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Keywords |
climate; crop growth simulation; model comparison; spring barley; yield variability; uncertainty; change impacts; nitrogen dynamics; high-temperature; soil-moisture; elevated co2; ceres-wheat; data set; growth; drought; sensitivity |
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Abstract |
In this study, the performance of nine widely used and accessible crop growth simulation models (APES-ACE, CROPSYST, DAISY, DSSAT-CERES, FASSET, HERMES, MONICA, STICS and WOFOST) was compared during 44 growing seasons of spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L) at seven sites in Northern and Central Europe. The aims of this model comparison were to examine how different process-based crop models perform at multiple sites across Europe when applied with minimal information for model calibration of spring barley at field scale, whether individual models perform better than the multi-model mean, and what the uncertainty ranges are in simulated grain yields. The reasons for differences among the models and how results for barley compare to winter wheat are discussed. Regarding yield estimation, best performing based on the root mean square error (RMSE) were models HERMES, MONICA and WOFOST with lowest values of 1124, 1282 and 1325 (kg ha(-1)), respectively. Applying the index of agreement (IA), models WOFOST, DAISY and HERMES scored best having highest values (0.632, 0.631 and 0.585, respectively). Most models systematically underestimated yields, whereby CROPSYST showed the highest deviation as indicated by the mean bias error (MBE) (-1159 kg ha(-1)). While the wide range of simulated yields across all sites and years shows the high uncertainties in model estimates with only restricted calibration, mean predictions from the nine models agreed well with observations. Results of this paper also show that models that were more accurate in predicting phenology were not necessarily the ones better estimating grain yields. Total above-ground biomass estimates often did not follow the patterns of grain yield estimates and, thus, harvest indices were also different. Estimates of soil moisture dynamics varied greatly. In comparison, even though the growing cycle for winter wheat is several months longer than for spring barley, using RMSE and IA as indicators, models performed slightly, but not significantly, better in predicting wheat yields. Errors in reproducing crop phenology were similar, which in conjunction with the shorter growth cycle of barley has higher effects on accuracy in yield prediction. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0378-4290 |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
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4803 |
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Author |
Perego, A.; Sanna, M.; Giussani, A.; Chiodini, M.E.; Fumagalli, M.; Pilu, S.R.; Bindi, M.; Moriondo, M.; Acutis, M. |
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Title |
Designing a high-yielding maize ideotype for a changing climate in Lombardy plain (northern Italy) |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Science of The Total Environment |
Abbreviated Journal |
Science of The Total Environment |
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Volume |
499 |
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Pages |
497-509 |
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Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods/standards; *Climate Change; Droughts; Italy; Nitrogen/analysis; Soil; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data; Zea mays/*growth & development/standards; Climate change; Crop model; Maize; Water use adaptation |
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Abstract |
The expected climate change will affect the maize yields in view of air temperature increase and scarce water availability. The application of biophysical models offers the chance to design a drought-resistant ideotype and to assist plant breeders and agronomists in the assessment of its suitability in future scenarios. The aim of the present work was to perform a model-based estimation of the yields of two hybrids, current vs ideotype, under future climate scenarios (2030-2060 and 2070-2100) in Lombardy (northern Italy), testing two options of irrigation (small amount at fixed dates vs optimal water supply), nitrogen (N) fertilization (300 vs 400 kg N ha(-1)), and crop cycle durations (current vs extended). For the designing of the ideotype we set several parameters of the ARMOSA process-based crop model: the root elongation rate and maximum depth, stomatal resistance, four stage-specific crop coefficients for the actual transpiration estimation, and drought tolerance factor. The work findings indicated that the current hybrid ensures good production only with high irrigation amount (245-565 mm y(-1)). With respect to the current hybrid, the ideotype will require less irrigation water (-13%, p<0.01) and it resulted in significantly higher yield under water stress condition (+15%, p<0.01) and optimal water supply (+2%, p<0.05). The elongated cycle has a positive effect on yield under any combination of options. Moreover, higher yields projected for the ideotype implicate more crop residues to be incorporated into the soil, which are positively correlated with the SOC sequestration and negatively with N leaching. The crop N uptake is expected to be adequate in view of higher rate of soil mineralization; the N fertilization rate of 400 kg N ha(-1) will involve significant increasing of grain yield, and it is expected to involve a higher rate of SOC sequestration. |
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2016-10-31 |
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0048-9697 |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4798 |
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Author |
Ruane, A.C.; Hudson, N.I.; Asseng, S.; Camarrano, D.; Ewert, F.; Martre, P.; Boote, K.J.; Thorburn, P.J.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Basso, B.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Brisson, N.; Challinor, &rew J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.F.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R.C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kumar, S.N.; Müller, C.; Nendel, C.; O’Leary, G.; Olesen, J.E.; Osborne, T.M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Rötter, R.P.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Wolf, J. |
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Title |
Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
Environmental Modelling & Software |
Abbreviated Journal |
Env. Model. Softw. |
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81 |
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86-101 |
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Keywords |
Crop modeling; Uncertainty; Multi-model ensemble; Wheat; AgMIP; Climate; impacts; Temperature; Precipitation; lnterannual variability; simulation-model; crop model; nitrogen dynamics; winter-wheat; large-area; systems simulation; farming systems; yield response; growth; water |
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We compare 27 wheat models’ yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models’ climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R-2 <= 0.24) was found between the models’ sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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1364-8152 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4769 |
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Author |
Yin, X.; Olesen, J.E.; Wang, M.; Öztürk, I.; Zhang, H.; Chen, F. |
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Title |
Impacts and adaptation of the cropping systems to climate change in the Northeast Farming Region of China |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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Volume |
78 |
Issue |
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60-72 |
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Keywords |
Climate change; Vulnerability; Impact; Adaptation; Cropping systems; The Northeast Farming Region of China; maize production; high-temperature; growth period; yield; rice; drought; management; nitrogen; crops; pests |
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Abstract |
The Northeast Farming Region of China (NFR) is a very important crop growing area, comprising seven sub-regions: Xing’anling (XA), Sanjiang (SJ), Northwest Songliao (NSL), Central Songliao (CSL), Southwest Songliao (SSL), Changbaishan (CB) and Liaodong (LD), which has been severely affected by extreme climate events and climatic change. Therefore, a set of expert survey has been done to identify current and project future climate limitations to crop production and explore appropriate adaptation measures in NFR. Droughts have been the largest limitation for maize (Zea mays L.) in NSL and SSL, and for soybean (Glycine max L Merr.) in SSL. Chilling damage has been the largest limitation for rice (Oryza sativa L) production in XA, SJ and CB. Projected climate change is expected to be beneficial for expanding the crop growing season, and to provide more suitable conditions for sowing and harvest. Autumn frost will occur later in most parts of NFR, and chilling damage will also decrease, particularly for rice production in XA and SJ. Drought and heat stress are expected to become more severe for maize and soybean production in most parts of NFR. Also, plant diseases, pests and weeds are considered to become more severe for crop production under climate change. Adaptation measures that have already been implemented in recent decades to cope with current climatic limitations include changes in timing of cultivation, variety choice, soil tillage practices, crop protection, irrigation and use of plastic film for soil cover. With the projected climate change and increasing risk of climatic extremes, additional adaptation measures will become relevant for sustaining and improving productivity of crops in NFR to ensure food security in China. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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ISSN |
1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4772 |
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Author |
Ventrella, D.; Stellacci, A.M.; Castrignanò, A.; Charfeddine, M.; Castellini, M. |
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Title |
Effects of crop residue management on winter durum wheat productivity in a long term experiment in Southern Italy |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
Publication |
European Journal of Agronomy |
Abbreviated Journal |
European Journal of Agronomy |
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77 |
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188-198 |
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Keywords |
Crop residue incorporation; Crop residue burning; Residual; autocorrelation; Mixed models; soil organic-matter; straw management; yield patterns; use efficiency; grain-yield; nitrogen; quality; systems; rotation; tillage |
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A long-term experiment comparing different crop residue (CR) managements was established in 1977 in Foggia (Apulia region, southern Italy). The objective of this study was to investigate the long-term effects of different types of crop residue management on main yield response parameters in a continuous cropping system of winter durum wheat. In order to correctly interpret the results, models accounting for spatial error autocorrelation were used and compared with ordinary least square models. Eight crop residue management treatments, based on burning of wheat straw and stubble or their incorporation with or without N fertilization and irrigation, were compared. The experimental design was a complete randomized block with five replicates. Results indicated that the dynamics of yield, grain protein content and hectolitric weight of winter durum wheat did not show any decline as usually expected when a monoculture is carried out for a long time. In addition, the temporal variability of productivity was more affected by meteorological factors, such as air temperature and rainfall, than CR management treatments. Higher wheat grain yields and hectolitric weights quite frequently occurred after burning of wheat straw compared with straw incorporation without nitrogen fertilization and autumn irrigation and this was attributed to temporary mineral N immobilization in the soil. The rate of 50 kg ha(-1) of N seemed to counterbalance this negative effect when good condition of soil moisture occurred in the autumn period, so yielding the same productive level of straw burning treatment. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1161-0301 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4770 |
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