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Author Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Muller, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Forecasting technological change in agriculture-An endogenous implementation in a global, and use model Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication (down) Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abbreviated Journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change  
  Volume 81 Issue Pages 236-249  
  Keywords Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use; intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration  
  Abstract Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 029 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (”Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995-2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change. (C) 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0040-1625 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4789  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Dietrich, J.P.; Schmitz, C.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Forecasting technological change in agriculture—An endogenous implementation in a global land use model Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication (down) Technological Forecasting and Social Change Abbreviated Journal Technological Forecasting and Social Change  
  Volume 81 Issue Pages 236-249  
  Keywords Technological change; Land use; Agricultural productivity; Land use intensity; Research and development; land-use; research expenditures; productivity growth; impact; deforestation; forest; yield; Business & Economics; Public Administration  
  Abstract ► Endogenous technological change in an economic land use model ► Estimation of yield elasticity with respect to investments in technological change ► Projections of future agricultural productivity rates ► Validation with observed data and historic trends ► Trade-off between required technological change and forest protection objectives Technological change in agriculture plays a decisive role for meeting future demands for agricultural goods. However, up to now, agricultural sector models and models on land use change have used technological change as an exogenous input due to various information and data deficiencies. This paper provides a first attempt towards an endogenous implementation based on a measure of agricultural land use intensity. We relate this measure to empirical data on investments in technological change. Our estimated yield elasticity with respect to research investments is 0.29 and production costs per area increase linearly with an increasing yield level. Implemented in the global land use model MAgPIE (“Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment”) this approach provides estimates of future yield growth. Highest future yield increases are required in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Our validation with FAO data for the period 1995–2005 indicates that the model behavior is in line with observations. By comparing two scenarios on forest conservation we show that protecting sensitive forest areas in the future is possible but requires substantial investments into technological change.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0040-1625 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4518  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Schmitz, C.; Kreidenweis, U.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Krause, M.; Dietrich, J.P.; Müller, C. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Agricultural trade and tropical deforestation: interactions and related policy options Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication (down) Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg Environ Change  
  Volume 15 Issue 8 Pages 1757-1772  
  Keywords Land-use change; Trade liberalisation; Tropical deforestation; Forest; protection; Agricultural productivity growth; land-use; brazilian amazon; co2 concentrations; carbon emissions; conservation; climate; mitigation; forests; impact; growth; Environmental Sciences & Ecology  
  Abstract The extensive clearing of tropical forests throughout past decades has been partly assigned to increased trade in agricultural goods. Since further trade liberalisation can be expected, remaining rainforests are likely to face additional threats with negative implications for climate mitigation and the local environment. We apply a spatially explicit economic land-use model coupled to a biophysical vegetation model to examine linkages and associated policies between trade and tropical deforestation in the future. Results indicate that further trade liberalisation leads to an expansion of deforestation in Amazonia due to comparative advantages of agriculture in South America. Globally, between 30 and 60 million ha (5-10 %) of tropical rainforests would be cleared additionally, leading to 20-40 Gt additional emissions by 2050. By applying different forest protection policies, those values could be reduced substantially. Most effective would be the inclusion of avoided deforestation into a global emissions trading scheme. Carbon prices corresponding to the concentration target of 550 ppm would prevent deforestation after 2020. Investing in agricultural productivity reduces pressure on tropical forests without the necessity of direct protection. In general, additional trade-induced demand from developed and emerging countries should be compensated by international efforts to protect natural resources in tropical regions.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 1436-378x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4810  
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Author Mandryk, M.; Reidsma, P.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Groot, J.C.J.; van Ittersum, M.K. url  doi
openurl 
  Title The role of farmers’ objectives in current farm practices and adaptation preferences: a case study in Flevoland, the Netherlands Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication (down) Regional Environmental Change Abbreviated Journal Reg Environ Change  
  Volume 14 Issue 4 Pages 1463-1478  
  Keywords multi-criteria decision-making; multi-objective optimization; agriculture; arable farm; vegetable farms; climate-change; south uruguay; land-use; design; agriculture; model; management; options; systems  
  Abstract The diversity in farmers’ objectives and responses to external drivers is usually not considered in integrated assessment studies that investigate impacts and adaptation to climate and socio-economic change. Here, we present an approach to assess how farmers’ stated objectives relate to their currently implemented practices and to preferred adaptation options, and we discuss what this implies for assessments of future changes. We based our approach on a combination of multi-criteria decision-making methods. We consistently assessed the importance of farmers’ objectives and adaptation preferences from what farmers say (based on interviews), from what farmers actually do (by analysing current farm performance) and from what farmers want (through a selected alternative farm plan). Our study was performed for six arable farms in Flevoland, a province in the Netherlands. Based on interviews with farmers, we reduced the long list of possible objectives to the most important ones. The objectives we assessed included maximization of economic result and soil organic matter, and minimization of gross margin variance, working hours and nitrogen balance. In our sample, farmers’ stated preferences in objectives were often not fully reflected in realized farming practices. Adaptation preferences of farmers largely resembled their current performance, but generally involved a trend towards stated preferences. Our results suggest that in Flevoland, although farmers do have more objectives, in practical decision-making they focus on economic result maximization, while for strategic decision-making they account for objectives influencing long-term performance and indicators associated with sustainability, in this case soil organic matter.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1436-3798 1436-378x ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4794  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Paas, W.; Kanellopoulos, A.; van de Ven, G.; Reidsma, P. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Integrated impact assessment of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a watershed in the Netherlands Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication (down) NJAS – Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences Abbreviated Journal NJAS – Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences  
  Volume Issue Pages  
  Keywords climate change; bio-economic model; explorations; land-use; 2050-scenario  
  Abstract Climate and socio-economic change will affect the land use and the economic viability of Dutch dairy farms. Explorations of future scenarios, which include different drivers and impacts, are needed to perform ex-ante policy assessment. This study uses a bio-economic farm model to assess impacts of climate and socio-economic change on dairy farms in a sandy area in the Netherlands. Farm data from the Farm Accountancy Data Network provided information on the current production levels and available farm resources. First, the farm plans of individual farms were optimized in the current situation to benchmark farms and assess the current scope for improvement. Secondly, simulations for two scenarios were included: a Global Economy with 2 °C global temperature rise (GE/W+) and a Regional Community with 1 °C global temperature rise (RC/G). The impacts of climate change, extreme events, juridical change (including abolishment of milk quota), technological change and price changes were evaluated in separate model runs within the predefined scenarios. We found that farms can increase profit both by intensification and land expansion; the latter especially for medium sized farms (less than 70 cows). Climate change including the effect of increased occurrence of extreme events may negatively affect farm gross margin in the GE/W+ scenario. Lower gross margins are compensated for by the effects of technology and price changes. In contrast with the GE/W+ scenario, climate change has positive impacts on farm profit in RC/G, but less favourable farm input-output price ratios have a negative effect. Technological change is needed to compensate for revenue losses due to higher input prices. In both GE/W+ and RC/G scenarios, dairy farms increase production and the use of artificial fertilizer. Medium sized farms have more options to increase profit than the large farms: they benefit more from the abolishment of the milk quota and better adapt to negative and positive impacts of climate change. While the exact impact of different drivers will always remain uncertain, this study showed that changes in prices, technology and markets have a relatively larger impact than climate change, even when extreme events are taken into account. By using whole farm plans as activities that can be selected, the model is grounded in observations, and it was shown that half of the farms are gross margin maximizers as assumed in the model. The model therefore indicates ‘what could happen if’, and gives insights in drivers and impacts of dairy farming in the region.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1573-5214 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4712  
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