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Schönhart, M.; Schauppenlehner, T.; Kuttner, M.; Kirchner, M.; Schmid, E. |
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Climate change impacts on farm production, landscape appearance, and the environment: Policy scenario results from an integrated field-farm-landscape model in Austria |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2016 |
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Agricultural Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural Systems |
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145 |
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39-50 |
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Keywords |
Integrated land use modeling; Climate change impacts; Mitigation; Adaptation; Field-farm-landscape; Environment; agricultural landscapes; land-use; netherlands; adaptation; indicators; management; responses |
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Climate change is among the major drivers of agricultural land use change and demands autonomous farm adaptation as well as public mitigation and adaptation policies. In this article, we present an integrated land use model (ILM) mainly combining a bio-physical model and a bio-economic farm model at field, farm and landscape levels. The ILM is applied to a cropland dominated landscape in Austria to analyze impacts of climate change and mitigation and adaptation policy scenarios on farm production as well as on the abiotic environment and biotic environment. Changes in aggregated total farm gross margins from three climate change scenarios for 2040 range between + 1% and + 5% without policy intervention” and compared to a reference situation under the current climate. Changes in aggregated gross margins are even higher if adaptation policies are in place. However, increasing productivity from climate change leads to deteriorating environmental conditions such as declining plant species richness and landscape appearance. It has to be balanced by mitigation and adaptation policies taking into account effects from the considerable spatial heterogeneity such as revealed by the ILM. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
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0308-521x |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4767 |
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Eza, U.; Shtiliyanova, A.; Borras, D.; Bellocchi, G.; Carrère, P.; Martin, R. |
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Title |
An open platform to assess vulnerabilities to climate change: An application to agricultural systems |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
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Ecological Informatics |
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Ecological Informatics |
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30 |
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389-396 |
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climate change; grasslands; modeling platform; vulnerability assessment; pasture simulation-model; software component; solar-radiation; crop production; change impacts; adaptation; indicator; makers |
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Numerous climate futures are now available from global climate models. Translation of climate data such as precipitation and temperatures into ecologically meaningful outputs for managers and planners is the next frontier. We describe a model-based open platform to assess vulnerabilities of agricultural systems to climate change on pixel-wise data. The platform includes a simulation modeling engine and is suited to work with NetCDF format of input and output files. In a case study covering a region (Auvergne) in the Massif Central of France, the platform is configured to characterize climate (occurrence of arid conditions in historical and projected climate records), soils and human management, and is then used to assess the vulnerability to climate change of grassland productivity (downscaled to a fine scale). We demonstrate how using climate time series, and process-based simulations vulnerabilities can be defined at fine spatial scales relevant to farmers and land managers, and can be incorporated into management frameworks. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
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1574-9541 |
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CropM LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4708 |
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Rusu, T.; Moraru, P.; Coste, C.; Cacovean, H.; Chetan, F.; Chetan, C. |
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Impact of climate change on climatic indicators in Transylvanian Plain, Romania |
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Journal Article |
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2014 |
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Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment |
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Journal of Food, Agriculture and Environment |
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12 |
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1 |
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469-473 |
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Climate change; climatic indicators; Transylvanian plain |
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The condition of land degradation in Transylvanian Plain and its effects, being the result of local extreme physical-geographical conditions, is susceptible to degradation (evidenced by the erodibility index), which overlaps the extreme climatic conditions. Thermal and hydric regime monitoring is necessary in order to identify and implement measures of adaptation to the impacts of climate change. Soil moisture and temperature regimes were evaluated using a set of 20 data logging stations positioned throughout the plain. Each station stores electronic data of ground temperature at 3 depths (10, 30, 50 cm), the humidity at the depth of 10 cm, the air temperature (at 1 m) and precipitations. Climate change in the past few years has significantly altered the climatic indicators of the Transylvanian Plain. Precipitations, although deficient in terms of annual amounts, through their regime, have a negative influence on the plant carpet. Pluvial aggressiveness index reveals, for the research period, a first peak of pluvial aggressiveness during the months of February-April, then in July and in autumn, the months of October-November. This requires special measures for soil conservation, both in autumn and early spring, soil tillage measures being recommended, which ensure the presence of plant debris and vegetation in early spring but especially in summer and autumn. Climatic indicators determined for the period 2008 – 2012 point out, in Transylvanian Plain, a semi-arid Mediterranean climate through the rain factor Lang, respectively semi-arid (in the South) – semi-wet (in the North) according to the De Martonne index. This climatic characterization requires special technological measures for soil conservation. |
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CropM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4638 |
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Mueller, L.; Schindler, U.; Shepherd, T.G.; Ball, B.C.; Smolentseva, E.; Hu, C.; Hennings, V.; Schad, P.; Rogasik, J.; Zeitz, J.; Schlindwein, S.L.; Behrendt, A.; Helming, K.; Eulenstein, F. |
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A framework for assessing agricultural soil quality on a global scale |
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Journal Article |
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2012 |
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Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science |
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Archives of Agronomy and Soil Science |
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58 |
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sup1 |
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S76-S82 |
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soil quality; indicators; muencheberg soil quality rating |
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This paper provides information about a novel approach of rating agricultural soil quality (SQ) and crop yield potentials consistently over a range of spatial scales. The Muencheberg Soil Quality Rating is an indicator-based straightforward overall assessment method of agricultural SQ. It is a framework covering aspects of soil texture, structure, topography and climate which is based on 8 basic indicators and more than 12 hazard indicators. Ratings are performed by visual methods of soil evaluation. A field manual is then used to provide ratings from tables based on indicator thresholds. Finally, overall rating scores are given, ranging from 0 (worst) to 100 (best) to characterise crop yield potentials. The current approach is valid for grassland and cropland. Field tests in several countries confirmed the practicability and reliability of the method. At field scale, soil structure is a crucial, management induced criterion of agricultural SQ. At the global scale, climate controlled hazard indicators of drought risk and soil thermal regime are crucial for SQ and crop yield potentials. Final rating scores are well correlated with crop yields. We conclude that this system could be evolved for ranking and controlling agricultural SQ on a global scale. |
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0365-0340 |
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CropM, TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4589 |
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Rötter, R.P.; Höhn, J.; Trnka, M.; Fronzek, S.; Carter, T.R.; Kahiluoto, H. |
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Modelling shifts in agroclimate and crop cultivar response under climate change |
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Journal Article |
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2013 |
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Ecology and Evolution |
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Ecol. Evol. |
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3 |
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12 |
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4197-4214 |
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Adaptation; agroclimatic indicator; barley; crop simulation model; cultivar response diversity |
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THIS PAPER AIMS: (i) to identify at national scale areas where crop yield formation is currently most prone to climate-induced stresses, (ii) to evaluate how the severity of these stresses is likely to develop in time and space, and (iii) to appraise and quantify the performance of two strategies for adapting crop cultivation to a wide range of (uncertain) climate change projections. To this end we made use of extensive climate, crop, and soil data, and of two modelling tools: N-AgriCLIM and the WOFOST crop simulation model. N-AgriCLIM was developed for the automatic generation of indicators describing basic agroclimatic conditions and was applied over the whole of Finland. WOFOST was used to simulate detailed crop responses at four representative locations. N-AgriCLIM calculations have been performed nationally for 3829 grid boxes at a 10 × 10 km resolution and for 32 climate scenarios. Ranges of projected shifts in indicator values for heat, drought and other crop-relevant stresses across the scenarios vary widely – so do the spatial patterns of change. Overall, under reference climate the most risk-prone areas for spring cereals are found in south-west Finland, shifting to south-east Finland towards the end of this century. Conditions for grass are likely to improve. WOFOST simulation results suggest that CO2 fertilization and adjusted sowing combined can lead to small yield increases of current barley cultivars under most climate scenarios on favourable soils, but not under extreme climate scenarios and poor soils. This information can be valuable for appraising alternative adaptation strategies. It facilitates the identification of regions in which climatic changes might be rapid or otherwise notable for crop production, requiring a more detailed evaluation of adaptation measures. The results also suggest that utilizing the diversity of cultivar responses seems beneficial given the high uncertainty in climate change projections. |
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2045-7758 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4576 |
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