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Author Rötter, R.P.; Tao, F.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Journal of Experimental Botany Abbreviated Journal J. Experim. Bot.  
  Volume 66 Issue 12 Pages 3463-3476  
  Keywords Breeding/*methods; Climate Change; *Computer Simulation; Ecotype; Edible Grain/*growth & development; *Models, Theoretical; cereals; climate extremes; crop growth simulation; ensemble modelling; future cultivars; genetic modelling; ideotype breeding; model improvement; model-aided design  
  Abstract A major challenge of the 21st century is to achieve food supply security under a changing climate and roughly a doubling in food demand by 2050 compared to present, the majority of which needs to be met by the cereals wheat, rice, maize, and barley. Future harvests are expected to be especially threatened through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, that pose particular challenges to plant breeders and crop scientists. Process-based crop models developed for simulating interactions between genotype, environment, and management are widely applied to assess impacts of environmental change on crop yield potentials, phenology, water use, etc. During the last decades, crop simulation has become important for supporting plant breeding, in particular in designing ideotypes, i.e. ‘model plants’, for different crops and cultivation environments. In this review we (i) examine the main limitations of crop simulation modelling for supporting ideotype breeding, (ii) describe developments in cultivar traits in response to climate variations, and (iii) present examples of how crop simulation has supported evaluation and design of cereal cultivars for future conditions. An early success story for rice demonstrates the potential of crop simulation modelling for ideotype breeding. Combining conventional crop simulation with new breeding methods and genetic modelling holds promise to accelerate delivery of future cereal cultivars for different environments. Robustness of model-aided ideotype design can further be enhanced through continued improvements of simulation models to better capture effects of extremes and the use of multi-model ensembles.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0022-0957 1460-2431 ISBN Medium Review  
  Area Expedition (up) Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4804  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.  
  Volume 10 Issue 4 Pages 045004  
  Keywords climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios  
  Abstract Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semiquantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.  
  Address 2016-10-31  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1748-9326 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition (up) Conference  
  Notes CropM Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4800  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Maiorano, A.; Martre, P.; Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Müller, C.; Rötter, R.P.; Ruane, A.C.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Wang, E.; Alderman, P.D.; Kassie, B.T.; Biernath, C.; Basso, B.; Cammarano, D.; Challinor, A.J.; Doltra, J.; Dumont, B.; Rezaei, E.E.; Gayler, S.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Kimball, B.A.; Koehler, A.-K.; Liu, B.; O’Leary, G.J.; Olesen, J.E.; Ottman, M.J.; Priesack, E.; Reynolds, M.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Thorburn, P.J.; Waha, K.; Wall, G.W.; White, J.W.; Zhao, Z.; Zhu, Y. doi  openurl
  Title Crop model improvement reduces the uncertainty of the response to temperature of multi-model ensembles Type Journal Article
  Year 2016 Publication Field Crops Research Abbreviated Journal Field Crops Research  
  Volume 202 Issue Pages 5-20  
  Keywords Impact uncertainty; High temperature; Model improvement; Multi-model ensemble; Wheat crop model  
  Abstract To improve climate change impact estimates and to quantify their uncertainty, multi-model ensembles (MMEs) have been suggested. Model improvements can improve the accuracy of simulations and reduce the uncertainty of climate change impact assessments. Furthermore, they can reduce the number of models needed in a MME. Herein, 15 wheat growth models of a larger MME were improved through re-parameterization and/or incorporating or modifying heat stress effects on phenology, leaf growth and senescence, biomass growth, and grain number and size using detailed field experimental data from the USDA Hot Serial Cereal experiment (calibration data set). Simulation results from before and after model improvement were then evaluated with independent field experiments from a CIMMYT world-wide field trial network (evaluation data set). Model improvements decreased the variation (10th to 90th model ensemble percentile range) of grain yields simulated by the MME on average by 39% in the calibration data set and by 26% in the independent evaluation data set for crops grown in mean seasonal temperatures >24 °C. MME mean squared error in simulating grain yield decreased by 37%. A reduction in MME uncertainty range by 27% increased MME prediction skills by 47%. Results suggest that the mean level of variation observed in field experiments and used as a benchmark can be reached with half the number of models in the MME. Improving crop models is therefore important to increase the certainty of model-based impact assessments and allow more practical, i.e. smaller MMEs to be used effectively.  
  Address 2016-09-13  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language Language Summary Language Newsletter July 2016 Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0378-4290 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area CropM Expedition (up) Conference  
  Notes CropMwp;wos; ft=macsur; wsnot_yet; Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4776  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; van Ittersum, M.K. url  doi
openurl 
  Title Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands Type Journal Article
  Year 2015 Publication Environmental Research Letters Abbreviated Journal Environ. Res. Lett.  
  Volume 10 Issue 4 Pages 045004  
  Keywords climate change adaptation; scenario; farm diversity; crop simulation; bio-economic farm modelling; european-union; crop yields; agriculture; responses; models; wheat; variability; improvement; strategies; scenarios  
  Abstract Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot account for all relevant climate change impacts and adaptation options, and (2) changes in technology, policy and prices have had and are likely to have larger impacts on farms than climate change. While crop modelling indicates positive impacts of climate change on yields of major crops in 2050, a semi-quantitative and participatory method assessing impacts of extreme events shows that there are nevertheless several climate risks. A range of adaptation measures are, however, available to reduce possible negative effects at crop level. In addition, at farm level farmers can change cropping patterns, and adjust inputs and outputs. Also farm structural change will influence impacts and adaptation. While the 5th IPCC report is more negative regarding impacts of climate change on agriculture compared to the previous report, also for temperate regions, our results show that when putting climate change in context of other drivers, and when explicitly accounting for adaptation at crop and farm level, impacts may be less negative in some regions and opportunities are revealed. These results refer to a temperate region, but an integrated assessment may also change perspectives on climate change for other parts of the world.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 1748-9326 ISBN Medium Article  
  Area Expedition (up) Conference  
  Notes CropM, ftnotmacsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4649  
Permanent link to this record
 

 
Author Semenov, M.A.; Stratonovitch, P.; Alghabari, F.; Gooding, M.J. doi  openurl
  Title Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change Type Journal Article
  Year 2014 Publication Journal of Cereal Science Abbreviated Journal J. Ceareal Sci.  
  Volume 59 Issue 3 Pages 245-256  
  Keywords A, maximum area of flag leaf area; ABA, abscisic acid; CV, coefficient of variation; Crop improvement; Crop modelling; FC, field capacity; GMT, Greenwich mean time; GS, growth stage; Gf, grain filling duration; HI, harvest index; HSP, heat shock protein; Heat and drought tolerance; Impact assessment; LAI, leaf area index; Ph, phylochron; Pp, photoperiod response; Ru, root water uptake; S, duration of leaf senescence; SF, drought stress factor; Sirius; Wheat ideotype  
  Abstract Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.  
  Address  
  Corporate Author Thesis  
  Publisher Place of Publication Editor  
  Language English Summary Language Original Title  
  Series Editor Series Title Abbreviated Series Title  
  Series Volume Series Issue Edition  
  ISSN 0733-5210 ISBN Medium Review  
  Area Expedition (up) Conference  
  Notes CropM, ft_macsur Approved no  
  Call Number MA @ admin @ Serial 4543  
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