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| Author |
Tao, F.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Z.; Rötter, R.P. |
| Title |
Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
20 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3686-3699 |
| Keywords |
Agriculture/*methods; China; *Climate Change; Geography; *Models, Biological; *Temperature; Time Factors; Zea mays/*growth & development; adaptation; agriculture; climate change; crop; cultivar; impacts; phenology |
| Abstract |
Maize phenology observations at 112 national agro-meteorological experiment stations across China spanning the years 1981-2009 were used to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology, as well as the relations to temperature change and cultivar shift. The greater scope of the dataset allows us to estimate the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift on maize phenology more precisely. We found that maize sowing date advanced significantly at 26.0% of stations mainly for spring maize in northwestern, southwestern and northeastern China, although delayed significantly at 8.0% of stations mainly in northeastern China and the North China Plain (NCP). Maize maturity date delayed significantly at 36.6% of stations mainly in the northeastern China and the NCP. As a result, duration of maize whole growing period (GPw) was prolonged significantly at 41.1% of stations, although mean temperature (Tmean) during GPw increased at 72.3% of stations, significantly at 19.6% of stations, and Tmean was negatively correlated with the duration of GPw at 92.9% of stations and significantly at 42.9% of stations. Once disentangling the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift with an approach based on accumulated thermal development unit, we found that increase in temperature advanced heading date and maturity date and reduced the duration of GPw at 81.3%, 82.1% and 83.9% of stations on average by 3.2, 6.0 and 3.5 days/decade, respectively. By contrast, cultivar shift delayed heading date and maturity date and prolonged the duration of GPw at 75.0%, 94.6% and 92.9% of stations on average by 1.5, 6.5 and 6.5 days/decade, respectively. Our results suggest that maize production is adapting to ongoing climate change by shift of sowing date and adoption of cultivars with longer growing period. The spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology presented here can further guide the development of adaptation options for maize production in near future. |
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1354-1013 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4544 |
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Nelson, G.C.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Ahammad, H.; Blanc, E.; Calvin, K.; Hasegawa, T.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Kyle, P.; Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Mason, d’C., Daniel; van Meijl, H.; Müller, C.; Reilly, J.; Robertson, R.; Sands, R.D.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Takahashi, K.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D. |
| Title |
Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don’t the models agree |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
| Volume |
45 |
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1 |
Pages |
85-101 |
| Keywords |
climate change impacts; economic models of agriculture; scenarios; system model; demand; CMIP5 |
| Abstract |
Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty. |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4536 |
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Piontek, F.; Müller, C.; Pugh, T.A.; Clark, D.B.; Deryng, D.; Elliott, J.; Colón González, F.J.; Flörke, M.; Folberth, C.; Franssen, W.; Frieler, K.; Friend, A.D.; Gosling, S.N.; Hemming, D.; Khabarov, N.; Kim, H.; Lomas, M.R.; Masaki, Y.; Mengel, M.; Morse, A.; Neumann, K.; Nishina, K.; Ostberg, S.; Pavlick, R.; Ruane, A.C.; Schewe, J.; Schmid, E.; Stacke, T.; Tang, Q.; Tessler, Z.D.; Tompkins, A.M.; Warszawski, L.; Wisser, D.; Schellnhuber, H.J. |
| Title |
Multisectoral climate impact hotspots in a warming world |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
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Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
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111 |
Issue |
9 |
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3233-3238 |
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Agriculture/statistics & numerical data; Computer Simulation; Conservation of Natural Resources/*methods; Ecosystem; *Environment; Geography; Global Warming/economics/*statistics & numerical data; Humans; Malaria/epidemiology; *Models, Theoretical; *Public Policy; Temperature; Water Supply/statistics & numerical data; Isi-mip; coinciding pressures; differential climate impacts |
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The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity’s diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 °C above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 °C. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty. |
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0027-8424 |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4538 |
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Ponti, L.; Gutierrez, A.P.; Ruti, P.M.; Dell’Aquila, A. |
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Fine-scale ecological and economic assessment of climate change on olive in the Mediterranean Basin reveals winners and losers |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
Abbreviated Journal |
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A. |
| Volume |
111 |
Issue |
15 |
Pages |
5598-5603 |
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Animals; *Biodiversity; *Climate Change; Conservation of Natural Resources/*trends; Crops, Agricultural/*economics/physiology; Geography; Host-Parasite Interactions; Mediterranean Region; Models, Biological; Models, Economic; Olea/*parasitology/*physiology; Tephritidae/*physiology; Olea europaea; desertification; ecological impacts; economic impacts; species interactions |
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The Mediterranean Basin is a climate and biodiversity hot spot, and climate change threatens agro-ecosystems such as olive, an ancient drought-tolerant crop of considerable ecological and socioeconomic importance. Climate change will impact the interactions of olive and the obligate olive fruit fly (Bactrocera oleae), and alter the economics of olive culture across the Basin. We estimate the effects of climate change on the dynamics and interaction of olive and the fly using physiologically based demographic models in a geographic information system context as driven by daily climate change scenario weather. A regional climate model that includes fine-scale representation of the effects of topography and the influence of the Mediterranean Sea on regional climate was used to scale the global climate data. The system model for olive/olive fly was used as the production function in our economic analysis, replacing the commonly used production-damage control function. Climate warming will affect olive yield and fly infestation levels across the Basin, resulting in economic winners and losers at the local and regional scales. At the local scale, profitability of small olive farms in many marginal areas of Europe and elsewhere in the Basin will decrease, leading to increased abandonment. These marginal farms are critical to conserving soil, maintaining biodiversity, and reducing fire risk in these areas. Our fine-scale bioeconomic approach provides a realistic prototype for assessing climate change impacts in other Mediterranean agro-ecosystems facing extant and new invasive pests. |
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0027-8424 1091-6490 |
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TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4539 |
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Müller, C.; Waha, K.; Bondeau, A.; Heinke, J. |
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Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development |
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Journal Article |
| Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Global Change Biology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Chang. Biol. |
| Volume |
20 |
Issue |
8 |
Pages |
2505-2517 |
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Africa South of the Sahara; *Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural; Environment; Hydrology; *Models, Theoretical; Uncertainty; adaptation; climate change; development; impacts; modeling; sub-Saharan Africa |
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Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. |
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1354-1013 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4534 |
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