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Gabaldón-Leal, C.; Lorite, I.J.; Mínguez, M.I.; Lizaso, J.I.; Dosio, A.; Sanchez, E.; Ruiz-Ramos, M. |
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Title |
Strategies for adapting maize to climate change and extreme temperatures in Andalusia, Spain |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
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Pages |
159-173 |
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Keywords |
climate change; impact; adaptation; maize; crop model; regional climate model; extreme temperature; elevated carbon-dioxide; iberian peninsula; future climate; mediterranean environment; crop productivity; model simulations; pollen viability; european climate; bias correction; change impacts |
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Climate projections indicate that rising temperatures will affect summer crops in the southern Iberian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to obtain projections of the impacts of rising temperatures, and of higher frequency of extreme events on irrigated maize, and to evaluate some adaptation strategies. The study was conducted at several locations in Andalusia using the CERES-Maize crop model, previously calibrated/validated with local experimental datasets. The simulated climate consisted of projections from regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; these were corrected for daily temperature and precipitation with regard to the E-OBS observational dataset. These bias-corrected projections were used with the CERES-Maize model to generate future impacts. Crop model results showed a decrease in maize yield by the end of the 21st century from 6 to 20%, a decrease of up to 25% in irrigation water requirements, and an increase in irrigation water productivity of up to 22%, due to earlier maturity dates and stomatal closure caused by CO2 increase. When adaptation strategies combining earlier sowing dates and cultivar changes were considered, impacts were compensated, and maize yield increased up to 14%, compared with the baseline period (1981-2010), with similar reductions in crop irrigation water requirements. Effects of extreme maximum temperatures rose to 40% at the end of the 21st century, compared with the baseline. Adaptation resulted in an overall reduction in extreme T-max damages in all locations, with the exception of Granada, where losses were limited to 8%. |
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2016-06-01 |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4738 |
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Gomara, I.; Bellocchi, G.; Martin, R.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, B.; Ruiz-Ramos, M. |
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Title |
Influence of climate variability on the potential forage production of a mown permanent grassland in the French Massif Central |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2020 |
Publication |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology |
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Volume |
280 |
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Pages |
107768 |
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Keywords |
climate variability; grasslands; potential yield; climate services; forage production forecasts; french massif central; pasture simulation-model; dry-matter production; atmospheric; circulation; crop yield; SST anomalies; maize yield; managed grasslands; storm track; ENSO; impacts |
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Climate Services (CS) provide support to decision makers across socio-economic sectors. In the agricultural sector, one of the most important CS applications is to provide timely and accurate yield forecasts based on climate prediction. In this study, the Pasture Simulation model (PaSim) was used to simulate, for the period 1959–2015, the forage production of a mown grassland system (Laqueuille, Massif Central of France) under different management conditions, with meteorological inputs extracted from the SAFRAN atmospheric database. The aim was to generate purely climate-dependent timeseries of optimal forage production, a variable that was maximized by brighter and warmer weather conditions at the grassland. A long-term increase was observed in simulated forage yield, with the 1995–2015 average being 29% higher than the 1959–1979 average. Such increase seems consistent with observed rising trends in temperature and CO2, and multi-decadal changes in incident solar radiation. At interannual timescales, sea surface temperature anomalies of the Mediterranean (MED), Tropical North Atlantic (TNA), equatorial Pacific (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index were found robustly correlated with annual forage yield values. Relying only on climatic predictors, we developed a stepwise statistical multi-regression model with leave-one-out cross-validation. Under specific management conditions (e.g., three annual cuts) and from one to five months in advance, the generated model successfully provided a p-value<0.01 in correlation (t-test), a root mean square error percentage (%RMSE) of 14.6% and a 71.43% hit rate predicting above/below average years in terms of forage yield collection. This is the first modeling study on the possible role of large-scale oceanic–atmospheric teleconnections in driving forage production in Europe. As such, it provides a useful springboard to implement a grassland seasonal forecasting system in this continent. |
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2020-06-08 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5233 |
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Gutzler, C.; Helming, K.; Balla, D.; Dannowski, R.; Deumlich, D.; Glemnitz, M.; Knierim, A.; Mirschel, W.; Nendel, C.; Paul, C.; Sieber, S.; Stachow, U.; Starick, A.; Wieland, R.; Wurbs, A.; Zander, P. |
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Title |
Agricultural land use changes – a scenario-based sustainability impact assessment for Brandenburg, Germany |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
Ecological Indicators |
Abbreviated Journal |
Ecological Indicators |
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48 |
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505-517 |
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Keywords |
scenarios; impact assessment; agricultural intensification; land use change; irrigation; bioenergy; social and environmental indicators; climate-change; landscape; model |
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Decisions for agricultural management are taken at farm scale. However, such decisions may well impact upon regional sustainability. Two of the likely agricultural management responses to future challenges are extended use of irrigation and increased production of energy crops. The drivers for these are high commodity prices and subsidy policies for renewable energy. However, the impacts of these responses upon regional sustainability are unknown. Thus, we conducted integrated impact assessments for agricultural intensification scenarios in the federal state of Brandenburg, Germany, for 2025. One Irrigation scenario and one Energy scenario were contrasted with the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario. We applied nine indicators to analyze the economic, social and environmental effects at the regional, in this case district scale, which is the smallest administrative unit in Brandenburg. Assessment results were discussed in a stakeholder workshop involving 16 experts from the state government. The simulated area shares of silage maize for fodder and energy were 29%, 37% and 49% for the BAU, Irrigation, and Energy scenarios, respectively. The Energy scenario increased bio-electricity production to 41% of the demand of Brandenburg, and it resulted in CO2 savings of up to 3.5 million tons. However, it resulted in loss of biodiversity, loss of landscape scenery, increased soil erosion risk, and increased area demand for water protection requirements. The Irrigation scenario led to yield increases of 7% (rapeseed), 18% (wheat, sugar beet), and 40% (maize) compared to the BAU scenario. It also reduced the year-to-year yield variability. Water demand for irrigation was found to be in conflict with other water uses for two of the 14 districts. Spatial differentiation of scenario impacts showed that districts with medium to low yield potentials were more affected by negative impacts than districts with high yield potentials. In this first comprehensive sustainability impact assessment of agricultural intensification scenarios at regional level, we showed that a considerable potential for agricultural intensification exists. The intensification is accompanied by adverse environmental and socio-economic impacts. The novelty lies in the multiscale integration of comprehensive, agricultural management simulations with regional level impact assessment, which was achieved with the adequate use of indicators. It provided relevant evidence for policy decision making. Stakeholders appreciated the integrative approach of the assessment, which substantiated ongoing discussions among the government bodies. The assessment approach and the Brandenburg case study may stay exemplary for other regions in the world where similar economic and policy driving forces are likely to lead to agricultural intensification. (C) 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. |
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1470-160x |
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CropM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4561 |
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Helming, K.; Diehl, K.; Geneletti, D.; Wiggering, H. |
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Title |
Mainstreaming ecosystem services in European policy impact assessment |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Environmental Impact Assessment Review |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environmental Impact Assessment Review |
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40 |
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82-87 |
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Ex-ante policy impact assessment; Ecosystem services; Science policy interface; DPSIR; EIA; seasonal forecasts |
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The concept of ecosystem services as developed for the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) is currently the most extensive, international, scientific concept dealing with the interaction between the world’s ecosystems and human well-being. The fundamental asset is seen in the relevancy of the concept at the science–policy interface. Albeit, the mainstreaming of ecosystem services into policy making requires a framework that allows the transition of the scientific concept into the rationale of policy making. We hypothesize that the procedure of policy impact assessment is a suitable venue for this transition. This brings up two questions: 1) where in the process of policy impact assessment can ecosystem services be mainstreamed? 2) How can the impact on ecosystem services properly be accounted for? In this paper we distinguish two groups of policy cases: explicit cases directly addressing ecosystem services, and implicit cases of policies that follow other purposes but may have unintended impacts on ecosystem services as a side effect. The second group covers a wide range of policies for which we set out a framework for mainstreaming of ecosystem services. The framework is exemplary designed for the instrument of ex-ante impact assessment at European policy making level. We reveal that the two concepts of the MA and of the European policy impact assessment are indeed compatible, which makes the integration of the ecosystem service concept possible. We conclude that the linkage of the scientifically validated concept of ecosystem services with the policy concept of impact assessment has the potential of improving the credibility of the latter. |
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TradeM, ftnotmacsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4602 |
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Hlavinka, P.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Dubrovský, M.; Fischer, M.; Pohanková, E.; Balek, J.; Žalud, Z.; Trnka, M. |
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Water balance, drought stress and yields for rainfed field crop rotations under present and future conditions in the Czech Republic |
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Journal Article |
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2015 |
Publication |
Climate Research |
Abbreviated Journal |
Clim. Res. |
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Volume |
65 |
Issue |
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175-192 |
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Keywords |
crop growth model; evapotranspiration; soil; climate change; climate-change scenarios; spring barley; wheat production; winter-wheat; model; impacts; europe; uncertainties; simulation; strategies |
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Continuous crop rotation modeling is a prospective trend that, compared to 1-crop or discrete year-by-year calculations, can provide more accurate results that are closer to real conditions. The goal of this study was to compare the water balance and yields estimated by the HERMES crop rotation model for present and future climatic conditions in the Czech Republic. Three locations were selected, representing important agricultural regions with different climatic conditions. Crop rotation (spring barley, silage maize, winter wheat, winter rape) was simulated from 1981-2080. The 1981-2010 period was covered by measured meteorological data, while 2011-2080 was represented by a transient synthetic weather series from the weather generator M& Rfi. The data were based on 5 circulation models, representing an ensemble of 18 CMIP3 global circulation models, to preserve much of the uncertainty of the original ensemble. Two types of crop management were compared, and the influences of soil quality, increasing atmospheric CO2 and adaptation measures (i. e. sowing date changes) were also considered. Results suggest that under a ‘dry’ scenario (such as GFCM21), C-3 crops in drier regions will be devastated for a significant number of seasons. Negative impacts are likely even on premium-quality soils regardless of flexible sowing dates and accounting for increasing CO2 concentrations. Moreover, in dry conditions, the use of crop rotations with catch crops may have negative impacts, exacerbating the soil water deficit for subsequent crops. This approach is a promising method for determining how various management strategies and crop rotations can affect yields as well as water, carbon and nitrogen cycling. |
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0936-577x 1616-1572 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4663 |
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