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Author |
Weindl, I.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A.; Müller, C.; Havlík, P.; Herrero, M.; Schmitz, C.; Rolinski, S. |
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Title |
Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Environmental Research Letters |
Abbreviated Journal |
Environ. Res. Lett. |
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Volume |
10 |
Issue |
9 |
Pages |
094021 |
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Keywords |
livestock; climate impacts; land use modeling; adaptation costs; production systems; greenhouse-gas emissions; global change; management implications; developing-countries; crop productivity; change mitigation; food security; model; impacts; carbon |
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Abstract |
Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource-and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. |
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ISSN |
1748-9326 |
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LiveM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4718 |
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Lotze-Campen, H.; von Lampe, M.; Kyle, P.; Fujimori, S.; Havlik, P.; van Meijl, H.; Hasegawa, T.; Popp, A.; Schmitz, C.; Tabeau, A.; Valin, H.; Willenbockel, D.; Wise, M. |
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Title |
Impacts of increased bioenergy demand on global food markets: an AgMIP economic model intercomparison |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2014 |
Publication |
Agricultural Economics |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agric. Econ. |
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Volume |
45 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
103-116 |
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Keywords |
energy demand; agricultural markets; general equilibrium modeling; partial equilibrium modeling; model comparison; greenhouse-gas emissions; land-use; energy; productivity; scenarios; policies; capture; storage; system |
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Abstract |
Integrated Assessment studies have shown that meeting ambitious greenhouse gas mitigation targets will require substantial amounts of bioenergy as part of the future energy mix. In the course of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), five global agro-economic models were used to analyze a future scenario with global demand for ligno-cellulosic bioenergy rising to about 100 ExaJoule in 2050. From this exercise a tentative conclusion can be drawn that ambitious climate change mitigation need not drive up global food prices much, if the extra land required for bioenergy production is accessible or if the feedstock, for example, from forests, does not directly compete for agricultural land. Agricultural price effects across models by the year 2050 from high bioenergy demand in an ambitious mitigation scenario appear to be much smaller (+5% average across models) than from direct climate impacts on crop yields in a high-emission scenario (+25% average across models). However, potential future scarcities of water and nutrients, policy-induced restrictions on agricultural land expansion, as well as potential welfare losses have not been specifically looked at in this exercise. |
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0169-5150 |
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CropM, TradeM |
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MA @ admin @ |
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4532 |
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Fan, F.; Henriksen, C.B.; Porter, J. |
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Title |
Long-term effects of conversion to organic farming on ecosystem services – a model simulation case study and on-farm case study in Denmark |
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Journal Article |
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2018 |
Publication |
Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems |
Abbreviated Journal |
Agroecology and Sustainable Food Systems |
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42 |
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5 |
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504-529 |
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Keywords |
Long-term; conversion; economic value; ecosystem services; organic farming; agricultural policytrade-offs; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Former Arable Soils; Daisy Model; Crop; Production; Conventional Agriculture; Straw Incorporation; Production; Systems; Nitrogen Dynamics; Climate-Change; Water-Balance |
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Organic agriculture aims to produce food while establishing an ecological balance to augment ecosystem services (ES) and has been rapidly expanding in the world since the 1980s. Recently, however, in several European countries, including Denmark, organic farmers have converted back to conventional farming. Hence, understanding how agricultural ES are affected by the number of years since conversion to organic farming is imperative for policy makers to guide future agricultural policy. In order to investigate the long-term effects of conversion to organic farming on ES we performed i) a model simulation case study by applying the Daisy model to simulate 14 different conversion scenarios for a Danish farm during a 65 year period with increasing number of years under organic farming, and ii) an on-farm case study in Denmark with one conventional farm, one organic farm under conversion, and three organic farms converted 10, 15 and 58 years ago, respectively. Both the model simulation case study and the on-farm case study showed that non-marketable ES values increased with increasing number of years under organic farming. Trade-offs between marketable and non-marketable ES were not evident, since also marketable ES values generally showed an increasing trend, except when the price difference between organic and conventional products in the model simulation study was the smallest, and when an alfalfa pre-crop in the on-farm case study resulted in a significantly higher level of plant available nitrogen, which boosted the yield and the associated marketable ES of the subsequent winter rye crop. These results indicate a possible benefit of preserving long-term organic farms and could be used to argue for agricultural policy interventions to offset further reduction in the number of organic farms or the land area under organic farming. |
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2018-05-03 |
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ISSN |
2168-3565 |
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CropM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5198 |
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Weindl, I.; Popp, A.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Biewald, A.; Humpenoeder, F.; Dietrich, J.P.; Stevanovic, M. |
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Title |
Livestock and human use of land: Productivity trends and dietary choices as drivers of future land and carbon dynamics |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global and Planetary Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global And Planetary Change |
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159 |
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1-10 |
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Keywords |
Livestock productivity; Diets; Land use; Deforestation; Carbon emissions; Greenhouse gas mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Climate-Change Mitigation; Food-Demand; Crop; Productivity; Cover Change; Systems; Agriculture; Intensification; Environment; Deforestation |
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Land use change has been the primary driving force of human alteration of terrestrial ecosystems. With 80% of agricultural land dedicated to livestock production, the sector is an important lever to attenuate land requirements for food production and carbon emissions from land use change. In this study, we quantify impacts of changing human diets and livestock productivity on land dynamics and depletion of carbon stored in vegetation, litter and soils. Across all investigated productivity pathways, lower consumption of livestock products can substantially reduce deforestation (47-55%) and cumulative carbon losses (34-57%). On the supply side, already minor productivity growth in extensive livestock production systems leads to substantial CO2 emission abatement, but the emission saving potential of productivity gains in intensive systems is limited, also involving trade-offs with soil carbon stocks. If accounting for uncertainties related to future trade restrictions, crop yields and pasture productivity, the range of projected carbon savings from changing diets increases to 23-78%. Highest abatement of carbon emissions (63-78%) can be achieved if reduced consumption of animal-based products is combined with sustained investments into productivity increases in plant production. Our analysis emphasizes the importance to integrate demand- and supply-side oriented mitigation strategies and to combine efforts in the crop and livestock sector to enable synergies for climate protection. |
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2018-01-25 |
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0921-8181 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5188 |
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Weindl, I.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Rolinski, S.; Biewald, A.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Muller, C.; Dietrich, J.P.; Humpenoder, F.; Stevanovic, M.; Schaphoff, S.; Popp, A. |
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Title |
Livestock production and the water challenge of future food supply: Implications of agricultural management and dietary choices |
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Journal Article |
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Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
Abbreviated Journal |
Global Environmental Change-Human and Policy Dimensions |
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47 |
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121-132 |
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Keywords |
Livestock; Productivity; Dietary changes; Consumptive water use; Water scarcity; Water resources; Climate-Change Mitigation; Greenhouse-Gas Emissions; Global Vegetation; Model; Land-Use; Comprehensive Assessment; Fresh-Water; Systems; Requirements; Irrigation; Carbon |
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Abstract |
Human activities use more than half of accessible freshwater, above all for agriculture. Most approaches for reconciling water conservation with feeding a growing population focus on the cropping sector. However, livestock production is pivotal to agricultural resource use, due to its low resource-use efficiency upstream in the food supply chain. Using a global modelling approach, we quantify the current and future contribution of livestock production, under different demand-and supply-side scenarios, to the consumption of “green” precipitation water infiltrated into the soil and “blue” freshWater withdrawn from rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Currently, cropland feed production accounts for 38% of crop water consumption and grazing involves 29% of total agricultural water consumption (9990 km(3) yr(-1)). Our analysis shows that changes in diets and livestock productivity have substantial implications for future consumption of agricultural blue water (19-36% increase compared to current levels) and green water (26-69% increase), but they can, at best, slow down trends of rising water requirements for decades to come. However, moderate productivity reductions in highly intensive livestock systems are possible without aggravating water scarcity. Productivity gains in developing regions decrease total agricultural water consumption, but lead to expansion of irrigated agriculture, due to the shift from grassland/green water to cropland/blue water resources. While the magnitude of the livestock water footprint gives cause for concern, neither dietary choices nor changes in livestock productivity will solve the water challenge of future food supply, unless accompanied by dedicated water protection policies. |
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2018-01-08 |
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0959-3780 |
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LiveM, TradeM, ft_macsur |
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MA @ admin @ |
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5183 |
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