| Records |
| Author |
Waha, K.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.; Dietrich, J.P.; Kurukulasuriya, P.; Heinke, J.; Lotze-Campen, H. |
| Title |
Adaptation to climate change through the choice of cropping system and sowing date in sub-Saharan Africa |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2013 |
Publication |
Global Environmental Change |
Abbreviated Journal |
Glob. Environ. Change |
| Volume |
23 |
Issue |
1 |
Pages |
130-143 |
| Keywords |
multiple cropping; sequential cropping systems; crop modelling; agricultural management; adaptation options; global vegetation model; future food-production; rainy-season; west-africa; agriculture; yield; maize; soil; variability; heat |
| Abstract |
Multiple cropping systems provide more harvest security for farmers, allow for crop intensification and furthermore influence ground cover, soil erosion, albedo, soil chemical properties, pest infestation and the carbon sequestration potential. We identify the traditional sequential cropping systems in ten sub-Saharan African countries from a survey dataset of more than 8600 households. We find that at least one sequential cropping system is traditionally used in 35% of all administrative units in the dataset, mainly including maize or groundnuts. We compare six different management scenarios and test their susceptibility as adaptation measure to climate change using the dynamic global vegetation model for managed land LPJmL. Aggregated mean crop yields in sub-Saharan Africa decrease by 6-24% due to climate change depending on the climate scenario and the management strategy. As an exception, some traditional sequential cropping systems in Kenya and South Africa gain by at least 25%. The crop yield decrease is typically weakest in sequential cropping systems and if farmers adapt the sowing date to changing climatic conditions. Crop calorific yields in single cropping systems only reach 40-55% of crop calorific yields obtained in sequential cropping systems at the end of the 21st century. The farmers’ choice of adequate crops, cropping systems and sowing dates can be an important adaptation strategy to climate change and these management options should be considered in climate change impact studies on agriculture. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
Address  |
2016-10-31 |
| Corporate Author |
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| Publisher |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0959-3780 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Article |
| Area |
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Expedition |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4823 |
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| Author |
Rötter, R.P.; Tao, F.; Höhn, J.G.; Palosuo, T. |
| Title |
Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2015 |
Publication |
Journal of Experimental Botany |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Experim. Bot. |
| Volume |
66 |
Issue |
12 |
Pages |
3463-3476 |
| Keywords |
Breeding/*methods; Climate Change; *Computer Simulation; Ecotype; Edible Grain/*growth & development; *Models, Theoretical; cereals; climate extremes; crop growth simulation; ensemble modelling; future cultivars; genetic modelling; ideotype breeding; model improvement; model-aided design |
| Abstract |
A major challenge of the 21st century is to achieve food supply security under a changing climate and roughly a doubling in food demand by 2050 compared to present, the majority of which needs to be met by the cereals wheat, rice, maize, and barley. Future harvests are expected to be especially threatened through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, that pose particular challenges to plant breeders and crop scientists. Process-based crop models developed for simulating interactions between genotype, environment, and management are widely applied to assess impacts of environmental change on crop yield potentials, phenology, water use, etc. During the last decades, crop simulation has become important for supporting plant breeding, in particular in designing ideotypes, i.e. ‘model plants’, for different crops and cultivation environments. In this review we (i) examine the main limitations of crop simulation modelling for supporting ideotype breeding, (ii) describe developments in cultivar traits in response to climate variations, and (iii) present examples of how crop simulation has supported evaluation and design of cereal cultivars for future conditions. An early success story for rice demonstrates the potential of crop simulation modelling for ideotype breeding. Combining conventional crop simulation with new breeding methods and genetic modelling holds promise to accelerate delivery of future cereal cultivars for different environments. Robustness of model-aided ideotype design can further be enhanced through continued improvements of simulation models to better capture effects of extremes and the use of multi-model ensembles. |
| Address |
2016-10-31 |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0022-0957 1460-2431 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
Review |
| Area |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
4804 |
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| Author |
Park, S.K.; Sungmin, O.; Cassardo, C. |
| Title |
Soil temperature response in Korea to a changing climate using a land surface model |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2017 |
Publication |
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
Abbreviated Journal |
Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences |
| Volume |
53 |
Issue |
4 |
Pages |
457-470 |
| Keywords |
Land surface process; soil temperature; climate change; soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) scheme; University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA); REGIONAL CLIMATE; SNOW COVER; WATER-RESOURCES; SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS; QUANTITATIVE-ANALYSIS; MESOSCALE MODEL; SRES EMISSIONS; FUTURE CLIMATE; CHANGE IMPACTS; SOUTH-AMERICA |
| Abstract |
The land surface processes play an important role in weather and climate systems through its regulation of radiation, heat, water and momentum fluxes. Soil temperature (ST) is one of the most important parameters in the land surface processes; however, there are few extensive measurements of ST with a long time series in the world. According to the CLImatology of Parameters at the Surface (CLIPS) methodology, the output of a trusted Soil-Vegetation- Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) scheme can be utilized instead of observations to investigate the regional climate of interest. In this study, ST in South Korea is estimated in a view of future climate using the output from a trusted SVAT scheme – the University of TOrino model of land Process Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), which is driven by a regional climate model. Here characteristic changes in ST are analyzed under the IPCC A2 future climate for 2046-2055 and 2091-2100, and are compared with those under the reference climate for 1996-2005. The UTOPIA results were validated using the observed ST in the reference climate, and the model proved to produce reasonable ST in South Korea. The UTOPIA simulations indicate that ST increases due to environmental change, especially in air temperature (AT), in the future climate. The increment of ST is proportional to that of AT except for winter. In wintertime, the ST variations are different from region to region mainly due to variations in snow cover, which keeps ST from significant changes by the climate change. |
| Address |
2017-12-21 |
| Corporate Author |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1976-7633 |
ISBN |
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Medium |
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| Area |
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| Notes |
CropM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5182 |
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| Author |
Hutchings, N.J.; Özkan Gülzari, Ş.; de Haan, M.; Sandars, D. |
| Title |
How do farm models compare when estimating greenhouse gas emissions from dairy cattle production |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2018 |
Publication |
Animal |
Abbreviated Journal |
Animal |
| Volume |
12 |
Issue |
10 |
Pages |
2171-2180 |
| Keywords |
dairy cattle; farm-scale; model; greenhouse gas; Future Climate Scenarios; Systems-Analysis; Milk-Production; Crop; Production; Mitigation; Intensity; Impacts |
| Abstract |
The European Union Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) will require a 30% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 compared with 2005 from the sectors not included in the European Emissions Trading Scheme, including agriculture. This will require the estimation of current and future emissions from agriculture, including dairy cattle production systems. Using a farm-scale model as part of a Tier 3 method for farm to national scales provides a more holistic and informative approach than IPCC (2006) Tier 2 but requires independent quality control. Comparing the results of using models to simulate a range of scenarios that explore an appropriate range of biophysical and management situations can support this process by providing a framework for placing model results in context. To assess the variation between models and the process of understanding differences, estimates of GHG emissions from four farm-scale models (DailyWise, FarmAC, HolosNor and SFARMMOD) were calculated for eight dairy farming scenarios within a factorial design consisting of two climates (cool/dry and warm/wet) x two soil types (sandy and clayey) x two feeding systems (grass only and grass/maize). The milk yield per cow, follower cow ratio, manure management system, nitrogen (N) fertilisation and land area were standardised for all scenarios in order to associate the differences in the results with the model structure and function. Potential yield and application of available N in fertiliser and manure were specified separately for grass and maize. Significant differences between models were found in GHG emissions at the farm-scale and for most contributory sources, although there was no difference in the ranking of source magnitudes. The farm-scale GHG emissions, averaged over the four models, was 10.6 t carbon dioxide equivalents (CO(2)e)/ha per year, with a range of 1.9 t CO(2)e/ha per year. Even though key production characteristics were specified in the scenarios, there were still significant differences between models in the annual milk production per ha and the amounts of N fertiliser and concentrate feed imported. This was because the models differed in their description of biophysical responses and feedback mechanisms, and in the extent to which management functions were internalised. We conclude that comparing the results of different farm-scale models when applied to a range of scenarios would build confidence in their use in achieving ESR targets, justifying further investment in the development of a wider range of scenarios and software tools. |
| Address |
2019-01-07 |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
1751-7311 |
ISBN |
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Conference |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5212 |
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| Author |
Mitter, H.; Techen, A.-K.; Sinabell, F.; Helming, K.; Kok, K.; Priess, J.A.; Schmid, E.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Holman, I.; Lehtonen, H.; Leip, A.; Le Mouel, C.; Mathijs, E.; Mehdi, B.; Michetti, M.; Mittenzwei, K.; Mora, O.; Oygarden, L.; Reidsma, P.; Schaldach, R.; Schoenhart, M. |
| Title |
A protocol to develop Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture |
Type |
Journal Article |
| Year |
2019 |
Publication |
Journal of Environmental Management |
Abbreviated Journal |
J. Environ. Manage. |
| Volume |
252 |
Issue |
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Pages |
Unsp 109701 |
| Keywords |
EUR-Agri-SSP; Consistent storylines; Narrative; Integrated assessment; Social environmental system; Climate change; land-use change; global environmental-change; climate-change; scenario; development; transdisciplinary research; sustainability science; integrated-assessment; future; adaptation; framework |
| Abstract |
Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs- to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports intercomparisons of IAAS. |
| Address |
2020-02-14 |
| Corporate Author |
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Place of Publication |
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| Language |
English |
Summary Language |
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Original Title |
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| Series Editor |
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Series Title |
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Abbreviated Series Title |
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| Series Volume |
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Series Issue |
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Edition |
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| ISSN |
0301-4797 |
ISBN |
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Article |
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| Notes |
TradeM, ft_macsur |
Approved |
no |
| Call Number |
MA @ admin @ |
Serial |
5222 |
| Permanent link to this record |
